Conservative target seats
Gaining 116 seats - and not losing any currently held - would give the Conservative Party led by David Cameron an overall majority in the House of Commons.The seats highlighted in the map and in the list below are those easiest for the Conservatives to gain, based on the holding party's majority.
The list is based on "notional" results, which provide an estimate of the 2005 election outcome, had recent constituency boundary changes been in force then.
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Conservative target seats (ordered by vulnerability)
| 2005 Results | 2010 Results | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Constituency | 2005 Majority | 2005 Party | 2010 Party | New majority | |
| 1 | Gillingham & Rainham | 0% | LAB | CON | 18.6% | |
| 2 | Crawley | 0.1% | LAB | CON | 12.5% | |
| 3 | York Outer | 0.4% | LD | CON | 6.9% | |
| 4 | Romsey & Southampton North | 0.5% | LD | CON | 8.5% | |
| 5 | Harlow | 0.6% | LAB | CON | 11.2% | |
| 6 | Cheltenham | 0.7% | LD | LD | 9.3% | |
| 7 | Croydon Central | 0.7% | LAB | CON | 6.0% | |
| 8 | Portsmouth North | 0.8% | LAB | CON | 16.5% | |
| 9 | Battersea | 0.8% | LAB | CON | 12.2% | |
| 10 | Hove | 1% | LAB | CON | 3.7% | |
| 11 | Somerton & Frome | 1.1% | LD | LD | 3.0% | |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 1.1% | LD | LD | 7.2% | |
| 13 | Westmorland & Lonsdale | 1.7% | LD | LD | 23.8% | |
| 14 | Milton Keynes North | 1.7% | LAB | CON | 16.6% | |
| 15 | Stroud | 1.9% | LAB | CON | 2.2% | |
| 16 | Dartford | 1.9% | LAB | CON | 21.2% | |
| 17 | Basildon South & Thurrock East | 2.1% | LAB | CON | 12.9% | |
| 18 | Ealing Central & Acton | 2.2% | LAB | CON | 7.9% | |
| 19 | Chester, City of | 2.2% | LAB | CON | 5.5% | |
| 20 | Hereford & Herefordshire South | 2.4% | LD | CON | 5.1% | |
| 21 | Colne Valley | 2.5% | LAB | CON | 8.7% | |
| 22 | Cardiff North | 2.5% | LAB | CON | 0.4% | |
| 23 | Hastings & Rye | 2.5% | LAB | CON | 4.0% | |
| 24 | Calder Valley | 2.7% | LAB | CON | 12.4% | |
| 25 | Stourbridge | 2.9% | LAB | CON | 10.9% | |
| 26 | Carshalton & Wallington | 2.9% | LD | LD | 11.5% | |
| 27 | Milton Keynes South | 3% | LAB | CON | 9.4% | |
| 28 | Corby | 3.1% | LAB | CON | 3.6% | |
| 29 | Taunton Deane | 3.3% | LD | LD | 6.9% | |
| 30 | Perth & Perthshire North | 3.3% | SNP | SNP | 9.1% | |
| 31 | Vale Of Glamorgan | 3.4% | LAB | CON | 8.8% | |
| 32 | Swindon South | 3.5% | LAB | CON | 7.5% | |
| 33 | Dorset South | 3.7% | LAB | CON | 14.8% | |
| 34 | Northampton South | 3.8% | LAB | CON | 15.4% | |
| 35 | High Peak | 3.8% | LAB | CON | 9.3% | |
| 36 | Loughborough | 3.9% | LAB | CON | 7.1% | |
| 37 | Aberconwy | 3.9% | LAB | CON | 11.3% | |
| 38 | Watford | 2.3% | LAB | CON | 2.6% | |
| 39 | Birmingham Edgbaston | 4% | LAB | LAB | 3.1% | |
| 40 | Stafford | 4% | LAB | CON | 10.9% | |
| 41 | Angus | 4.2% | SNP | SNP | 8.6% | |
| 42 | Broxtowe | 4.4% | LAB | CON | 0.7% | |
| 43 | Chippenham | 4.7% | LD | LD | 4.7% | |
| 44 | Burton | 4.8% | LAB | CON | 12.7% | |
| 45 | Brighton Kemptown | 4.8% | LAB | CON | 3.1% | |
| 46 | Bury North | 5% | LAB | CON | 5.0% | |
| 47 | Redditch | 5.2% | LAB | CON | 13.2% | |
| 48 | Rugby | 5.2% | LAB | CON | 12.6% | |
| 49 | Pendle | 5.3% | LAB | CON | 8.0% | |
| 50 | Wolverhampton South West | 5.3% | LAB | CON | 1.7% | |
| 51 | Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South | 5.3% | LAB | CON | 8.5% | |
| 52 | South Ribble | 5.4% | LAB | CON | 10.8% | |
| 53 | Derbyshire South | 5.5% | LAB | CON | 14.1% | |
| 54 | Bristol North West | 5.7% | LAB | CON | 6.5% | |
| 55 | Dumfries & Galloway | 5.7% | LAB | LAB | 14.3% | |
| 56 | Tamworth | 5.9% | LAB | CON | 13.1% | |
| 57 | Torbay | 6% | LD | LD | 8.3% | |
| 58 | Cleethorpes | 6.1% | LAB | CON | 9.6% | |
| 59 | Sutton & Cheam | 6.2% | LD | LD | 3.3% | |
| 60 | Swindon North | 6.2% | LAB | CON | 14.0% | |
| 61 | Westminster North | 6.6% | LAB | LAB | 5.4% | |
| 62 | Worcester | 6.8% | LAB | CON | 6.1% | |
| 63 | Cornwall North | 6.9% | LD | LD | 6.4% | |
| 64 | Harrow East | 6.9% | LAB | CON | 7.1% | |
| 65 | Richmond Park | 7.1% | LD | CON | 6.9% | |
| 66 | Great Yarmouth | 7.4% | LAB | CON | 9.9% | |
| 67 | Cheadle | 7.4% | LD | LD | 6.2% | |
| 68 | Eltham | 7.6% | LAB | LAB | 4.0% | |
| 69 | Brigg & Goole | 7.8% | LAB | CON | 11.7% | |
| 70 | Portsmouth South | 8% | LD | LD | 12.6% | |
| 71 | Bedford | 8% | LAB | CON | 3.0% | |
| 72 | Stevenage | 8.1% | LAB | CON | 8.0% | |
| 73 | Hendon | 8.1% | LAB | CON | 0.2% | |
| 74 | Chatham & Aylesford | 8.3% | LAB | CON | 13.9% | |
| 75 | Brentford & Isleworth | 8.3% | LAB | CON | 3.6% | |
| 76 | Bradford West | 8.3% | LAB | LAB | 14.2% | |
| 77 | Rossendale & Darwen | 8.4% | LAB | CON | 9.5% | |
| 78 | Hammersmith | 8.4% | LAB | LAB | 7.5% | |
| 79 | Blackpool North & Cleveleys | 8.5% | LAB | CON | 5.3% | |
| 80 | Halifax | 8.8% | LAB | LAB | 3.4% | |
| 81 | Lancaster & Fleetwood | 8.8% | LAB | CON | 0.8% | |
| 82 | Dewsbury | 8.9% | LAB | CON | 2.8% | |
| 83 | Dudley South | 8.9% | LAB | CON | 10.1% | |
| 84 | Northampton North | 9% | LAB | CON | 4.8% | |
| 85 | Warrington South | 9.2% | LAB | CON | 2.8% | |
| 86 | Truro & Falmouth | 9.3% | LD | CON | 0.9% | |
| 87 | Wirral South | 9.3% | LAB | LAB | 1.3% | |
| 88 | Southport | 9.3% | LD | LD | 13.8% | |
| 89 | Lincoln | 9.5% | LAB | CON | 2.3% | |
| 90 | Leicestershire North West | 9.5% | LAB | CON | 14.5% | |
| 91 | Wyre Forest | 9.5% | ICHC | CON | 5.2% | |
| 92 | Gedling | 9.6% | LAB | LAB | 3.9% | |
| 93 | Halesowen & Rowley Regis | 9.7% | LAB | CON | 4.6% | |
| 94 | Nuneaton | 9.7% | LAB | CON | 4.6% | |
| 95 | Leeds North West | 5% | LD | LD | 20.9% | |
| 96 | Brecon & Radnorshire | 10.2% | LD | LD | 9.6% | |
| 97 | Camborne & Redruth | 7.1% | LD | CON | 0.2% | |
| 98 | Warwick & Leamington | 10.3% | LAB | CON | 7.2% | |
| 99 | Dover | 10.4% | LAB | CON | 10.5% | |
| 100 | Keighley | 10.5% | LAB | CON | 6.2% | |
| 101 | Newton Abbot | 10.5% | LD | CON | 1.1% | |
| 102 | Devon North | 10.7% | LD | LD | 11.3% | |
| 103 | Poplar & Limehouse | 10.8% | LAB | LAB | 12.9% | |
| 104 | Stirling | 10.9% | LAB | LAB | 17.9% | |
| 105 | Plymouth Sutton & Devonport | 11.1% | LAB | CON | 2.6% | |
| 106 | Dudley North | 11.1% | LAB | LAB | 1.7% | |
| 107 | Elmet & Rothwell | 11.4% | LAB | CON | 8.1% | |
| 108 | Reading West | 11.5% | LAB | CON | 12.6% | |
| 109 | Tynemouth | 11.7% | LAB | LAB | 10.9% | |
| 110 | Morecambe & Lunesdale | 11.7% | LAB | CON | 2.0% | |
| 111 | Pudsey | 11.7% | LAB | CON | 3.4% | |
| 112 | Cornwall South East | 11.8% | LD | CON | 6.5% | |
| 113 | Ipswich | 11.8% | LAB | CON | 4.4% | |
| 114 | Bolton West | 12% | LAB | LAB | 0.2% | |
| 115 | Bolton North East | 12% | LAB | LAB | 9.4% | |
| 116 | Waveney | 12% | LAB | CON | 1.5% | |
