If Michael Howard is to end his party's eight year spell out of office he needs to take all the seats shown here, and not lose any others. This would give him a majority in the new House of Commons. These 159 seats are those most likely to fall to the Conservatives based on the results from 2001 and boundary changes in Scotland. Seats gained graph

Conservative targets

CONSERVATIVE GAINS: 36 SEATS (in order of vulnerability)
No.	Constituency		Gain from		New majority
4	Braintree		LAB		7.3%
5	Weston-Super-Mare		LD		4.2%
7	Monmouth		LAB		9.9%
9	Lancaster & Wyre		LAB		8.0%
10	Guildford		LD		0.7%
11	Kettering		LAB		5.9%
14	Northampton South		LAB		8.1%
16	Devon West & Torridge		LD		5.5%
18	Welwyn Hatfield		LAB		13.3%
19	Shipley		LAB		0.9%
20	Clwyd West		LAB		0.4%
21	Bexleyheath & Crayford		LAB		10.7%
22	Ludlow		LD		4.4%
23	Milton Keynes North East		LAB		3.3%
24	Hornchurch		LAB		1.3%
26	Hammersmith & Fulham		LAB		10.2%
28	Forest of Dean		LAB		4.3%
29	Wellingborough		LAB		1.3%
30	Newbury		LD		6.3%
33	Ilford North		LAB		3.8%
34	Rugby & Kenilworth		LAB		2.9%
36	Harwich		LAB		1.8%
43	Peterborough		LAB		6.6%
44	Shrewsbury & Atcham		LAB		3.6%
47	Scarborough & Whitby		LAB		2.7%
49	Preseli Pembrokeshire		LAB		1.6%
52	Putney		LAB		4.8%
53	Hemel Hempstead		LAB		1.1%
58	The Wrekin		LAB		2.1%
59	Croydon Central		LAB		0.2%
61	Wimbledon		LAB		5.3%
74	St Albans		LAB		3.0%
86	Gravesham		LAB		1.4%
96	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale		LAB		3.9%
108	Reading East		LAB		1.1%
114	Enfield Southgate		LAB		4.1%
CONSERVATIVE LOSSES: 3 SEATS
Constituency					Lost to	New majority
Solihull					LD	0.5%
Taunton					LD	1.0%
Westmorland & Lonsdale					LD	0.5%
TARGET SEATS (in order of vulnerability)
2001 Results					2005 Results
No.	Constituency	Majority	Party		Party	New majority
1	Cheadle	0.1%	LD		LD	8.5 %
2	Dumfries and Galloway	0.3%	LAB		LAB	5.7 %
3	Dorset South	0.3%	LAB		LAB	3.7 %
4	Braintree	0.7%	LAB		CON	7.3 %
5	Weston-Super-Mare	0.7%	LD		CON	4.2 %
6	Norfolk North	0.9%	LD		LD	18.0 %
7	Monmouth	0.9%	LAB		CON	9.9 %
8	Dorset Mid & Poole North	0.9%	LD		LD	12.1 %
9	Lancaster & Wyre	0.9%	LAB		CON	8.0 %
10	Guildford	1.1%	LD		CON	0.7 %
11	Kettering	1.2%	LAB		CON	5.9 %
12	Somerton & Frome	1.3%	LD		LD	1.5 %
13	Angus	1.5%	SNP		SNP	4.2 %
14	Northampton South	1.7%	LAB		CON	8.1 %
15	Brecon & Radnorshire	2%	LD		LD	10.2 %
16	Devon West & Torridge	2.1%	LD		CON	5.5 %
17	Hereford	2.2%	LD		LD	2.1 %
18	Welwyn Hatfield	2.8%	LAB		CON	13.3 %
19	Shipley	3.1%	LAB		CON	0.9 %
20	Clwyd West	3.2%	LAB		CON	0.4 %
21	Bexleyheath & Crayford	3.6%	LAB		CON	10.7 %
22	Ludlow	3.8%	LD		CON	4.4 %
23	Milton Keynes North East	3.9%	LAB		CON	3.3 %
24	Hornchurch	4.2%	LAB		CON	1.3 %
25	Selby	4.3%	LAB		LAB	0.9 %
26	Hammersmith & Fulham	4.5%	LAB		CON	10.2 %
27	Thanet South	4.5%	LAB		LAB	1.6 %
28	Forest of Dean	4.6%	LAB		CON	4.3 %
29	Wellingborough	4.6%	LAB		CON	1.3 %
30	Newbury	4.8%	LD		CON	6.3 %
31	Romsey	4.9%	LD		LD	0.2 %
32	Teignbridge	5.1%	LD		LD	10.2 %
33	Ilford North	5.3%	LAB		CON	3.8 %
34	Rugby & Kenilworth	5.3%	LAB		CON	2.9 %
35	Gillingham	5.4%	LAB		LAB	0.6 %
36	Harwich	5.4%	LAB		CON	1.8 %
37	Enfield North	6%	LAB		LAB	4.7 %
38	Devon North	6.1%	LD		LD	9.6 %
39	Eastleigh	6.4%	LD		LD	1.1 %
40	Moray	5.1%	SNP		SNP	14.6 %
41	Calder Valley	6.5%	LAB		LAB	2.9 %
42	Redditch	6.7%	LAB		LAB	6.7 %
43	Peterborough	7.2%	LAB		CON	6.6 %
44	Shrewsbury & Atcham	7.2%	LAB		CON	3.6 %
45	Southport	7.3%	LD		LD	9.3 %
46	Dartford	7.4%	LAB		LAB	1.5 %
47	Scarborough & Whitby	7.5%	LAB		CON	2.7 %
48	Hove	7.6%	LAB		LAB	0.9 %
49	Preseli Pembrokeshire	8%	LAB		CON	1.6 %
50	Bristol West	8%	LAB		LD	8.9 %
51	Gloucester	8%	LAB		LAB	8.2 %
52	Putney	8.1%	LAB		CON	4.8 %
53	Hemel Hempstead	8.2%	LAB		CON	1.1 %
54	Yeovil	8.2%	LD		LD	17.2 %
55	Ribble South	8.2%	LAB		LAB	4.6 %
56	Finchley & Golders Green	8.5%	LAB		LAB	1.7 %
57	Wolverhampton South West	8.5%	LAB		LAB	6.9 %
58	The Wrekin	8.6%	LAB		CON	2.1 %
59	Croydon Central	8.7%	LAB		CON	0.2 %
60	Elmet	9.1%	LAB		LAB	9.6 %
61	Wimbledon	9.1%	LAB		CON	5.3 %
62	Stroud	9.1%	LAB		LAB	0.6 %
63	Argyll and Bute	9.2%	LD		LD	13.0 %
64	Keighley	9.2%	LAB		LAB	10.5 %
65	Sittingbourne & Sheppey	9.3%	LAB		LAB	0.2 %
66	High Peak	9.3%	LAB		LAB	1.5 %
67	Stourbridge	9.5%	LAB		LAB	1.0 %
68	Brigg & Goole	9.6%	LAB		LAB	6.8 %
69	Falmouth & Camborne	9.7%	LAB		LD	3.9 %
70	Medway	9.8%	LAB		LAB	0.5 %
71	Colne Valley	9.9%	LAB		LAB	3.1 %
72	Wirral West	10%	LAB		LAB	2.7 %
73	Richmond Park	10.1%	LD		LD	7.3 %
74	St Albans	10.2%	LAB		CON	3.0 %
75	Cornwall South East	10.4%	LD		LD	12.2 %
76	Vale of Glamorgan	10.4%	LAB		LAB	3.8 %
77	Burton	10.4%	LAB		LAB	3.0 %
78	Hastings & Rye	10.5%	LAB		LAB	4.7 %
79	Pendle	10.8%	LAB		LAB	5.3 %
80	Sutton & Cheam	10.8%	LD		LD	6.8 %
81	Bradford West	10.9%	LAB		LAB	8.3 %
82	Dunbartonshire East	6.3%	LAB		LD	8.7 %
83	Chatham & Aylesford	10.9%	LAB		LAB	5.5 %
84	Perth and North Perthshire	11%	SNP		SNP	3.3 %
85	Warwick & Leamington	11.1%	LAB		LAB	0.5 %
86	Gravesham	11.1%	LAB		CON	1.4 %
87	Carshalton & Wallington	11.2%	LD		LD	2.5 %
88	Great Yarmouth	11.3%	LAB		LAB	7.4 %
89	Wansdyke	11.3%	LAB		LAB	3.6 %
90	Stafford	11.3%	LAB		LAB	4.7 %
91	Tamworth	11.4%	LAB		LAB	5.9 %
92	Dover	11.6%	LAB		LAB	10.3 %
93	Rossendale & Darwen	11.9%	LAB		LAB	8.3 %
94	Watford	12%	LAB		LAB	2.3 %
95	Broxtowe	12%	LAB		LAB	4.7 %
96	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	12.1%	LAB		CON	3.9 %
97	Corby	12.1%	LAB		LAB	3.1 %
98	Morecambe & Lunesdale	12.2%	LAB		LAB	11.5 %
99	Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South	12.3%	LAB		LAB	5.0 %
100	Leeds North West	12.3%	LAB		LD	4.2 %
101	Birmingham Edgbaston	12.4%	LAB		LAB	6.2 %
102	Pudsey	12.5%	LAB		LAB	12.6 %
103	Brighton Kemptown	12.6%	LAB		LAB	6.9 %
104	Cheltenham	12.6%	LD		LD	5.3 %
105	Wirral South	12.7%	LAB		LAB	9.4 %
106	Colchester	12.7%	LD		LD	14.0 %
107	Gedling	12.8%	LAB		LAB	8.6 %
108	Reading East	12.8%	LAB		CON	1.1 %
109	Norwich North	12.9%	LAB		LAB	11.6 %
110	Harlow	13%	LAB		LAB	0.2 %
111	Worcester	13%	LAB		LAB	6.8 %
112	Batley & Spen	13.1%	LAB		LAB	14.8 %
113	Harrow West	13.2%	LAB		LAB	4.2 %
114	Enfield Southgate	13.2%	LAB		CON	4.1 %
115	Cleethorpes	13.2%	LAB		LAB	6.1 %
116	Bolton West	13.4%	LAB		LAB	5.1 %
117	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	13.4%	LD		LD	17.9 %
118	Blackpool North & Fleetwood	13.4%	LAB		LAB	11.7 %
119	Staffordshire Moorlands	13.7%	LAB		LAB	5.5 %
120	Battersea	13.7%	LAB		LAB	0.4 %
121	Portsmouth North	13.9%	LAB		LAB	3.0 %
122	Torbay	14.1%	LD		LD	4.3 %
123	Cardiff North	14.3%	LAB		LAB	2.5 %
124	Erewash	14.3%	LAB		LAB	14.0 %
125	Copeland	14.3%	LAB		LAB	18.7 %
126	Loughborough	14.4%	LAB		LAB	4.3 %
127	Bury North	14.6%	LAB		LAB	6.6 %
128	Derbyshire South	15.1%	LAB		LAB	8.1 %
129	Bedford	15.2%	LAB		LAB	8.0 %
130	Halifax	15.2%	LAB		LAB	8.6 %
131	Twickenham	15.3%	LD		LD	19.3 %
132	City of Chester	15.4%	LAB		LAB	2.0 %
133	Milton Keynes South West	15.4%	LAB		LAB	8.1 %
134	Portsmouth South	15.5%	LD		LD	8.3 %
135	Derby North	15.8%	LAB		LAB	8.6 %
136	Truro & St Austell	16%	LD		LD	14.4 %
137	Amber Valley	16.2%	LAB		LAB	11.1 %
138	Warrington South	16.3%	LAB		LAB	7.5 %
139	Winchester	16.3%	LD		LD	12.1 %
140	Carlisle	16.3%	LAB		LAB	16.1 %
141	Edinburgh South	14%	LAB		LAB	0.9 %
142	Edinburgh West	11.9%	LD		LD	30.0 %
143	Swindon South	16.9%	LAB		LAB	3.1 %
144	Crawley	17.1%	LAB		LAB	0.1 %
145	Nuneaton	17.4%	LAB		LAB	5.0 %
146	Chorley	17.6%	LAB		LAB	15.4 %
147	Dudley North	17.6%	LAB		LAB	13.1 %
148	Northavon	17.7%	LD		LD	18.7 %
149	Vale of Clwyd	17.8%	LAB		LAB	14.4 %
150	Oxford West & Abingdon	17.8%	LD		LD	14.6 %
151	Leeds North East	17.8%	LAB		LAB	12.7 %
152	Edinburgh South West	17.9%	LAB		LAB	16.5 %
153	Conwy	18.1%	LAB		LAB	9.2 %
154	Leicestershire North West	18.1%	LAB		LAB	9.5 %
155	Waveney	18.1%	LAB		LAB	11.9 %
156	Hendon	18.2%	LAB		LAB	6.5 %
157	Cornwall North	18.2%	LD		LD	5.5 %
158	Aberdeen South	9.5%	LAB		LAB	3.2 %
159	Halesowen & Rowley Regis	18.7%	LAB		LAB	10.5 %