Could Iran war lead to more small boat migrants?

Could the US and Israel's war with Iran lead to a rise in migrants attempting to cross the Channel in small boats?

The director general of the National Crime Agency (NCA) said the demand to reach the UK unlawfully continued to be high and the conflict in Iran was likely to increase the challenge.

Graeme Biggar issued the warning as he outlined the annual assessment of threats facing the UK.

The agency revealed the threat of organised immigration crime grew in 2025, with criminals cramming more migrants into a smaller number of boats.

"It is possible that a prolonged conflict in Iran leads to more people fleeing the Middle East, and potentially reaching the UK," said Mihnea Cuibus, researcher from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.

"Iran is also one of the largest countries of origin for asylum seekers and small boat arrivals in the UK. So it would not be surprising if unrest in Iran affected UK asylum trends, although precisely how remains unclear."

In the threats assessment, the NCA highlighted how a larger number of people reached the UK in a smaller number of boats in 2025.

It said on average 62 people were discovered in each boat last year, up from 53 the year before.

Biggar said smugglers had also changed tactics to evade enforcement action.

"Following French disruptions on the beaches, the criminals have switched to using 'taxi boats' where the boat is inflated and launched on a canal or river and then sailed along the beaches picking up passengers," he said.

Last year the BBC reported how some smuggling gangs had launched boats as far south as Dieppe to evade police crackdowns.

In recent weeks there have been a number of launches further north in Belgium, away from the main launch sites in Calais and Dunkirk.

While the number of small boat arrivals increased to 41,262 in 2025, the figure still remains lower than the peak of 45,774 in 2022.

The NCA report said 2025 saw the Horn of Africa emerge as the main source of migrants, replacing previous peaks of Vietnam and Albania.

It said it was almost certainly driven by a combination of push factors from source countries, such as conflict and political instability and secondary migration from mainland Europe.

The annual report also highlighted efforts to disrupt the supply of small boats and engines.

Biggar said working with partners across Europe they had seized 533 boats or engines in 2025.

"Had this equipment reached the beaches of France then up to 33,000 more migrants could have attempted to cross the Channel," he added.

The agency said following action at the border between Turkey and Bulgaria, criminals had been forced to use a much broader range of routes to transport boats and engines from, primarily, Turkey to the beaches of France.

The equipment used for small boat crossings is typically sourced from China and then assembled in Turkey, before being stored in Germany and transported to northern France, the NCA said.

BBC South East recently reported on the attempts to smuggle the boats into Europe hidden in consignments of paddling pools to try to evade border controls.

The NCA said there were 27 migrant fatalities in the Channel in 2025 compared with 78 in 2024.

They said it was highly likely due to intervention by rescue craft, alongside fewer incidents of groups of non-paying passengers opportunistically storming boats in the water, causing panic and instances of crushing or drowning.

Detections of irregular migrants at UK ports and in country also continued a multi-year decrease in 2025.

There were 1,998 recorded detections of irregular arrivals to the UK, a 36% decrease compared with 2024's figure of 3,125.

The government has pledged to "smash the smuggling gangs" in order to reduce the numbers crossing in small boats.

Among the other threats assessed in the report, the NCA said drugs remained the single biggest driver of serious crime in the UK and the scale of the problem was growing.

It said since the synthetic opioid nitazenes first appeared at scale in the UK in June 2023, they have been connected to 1,000 deaths.

Investigators have seen heroin being cut with synthetic opioids, making it more dangerous, and also an increase in ketamine use.

GPS trackers are being attached to drugs thrown off container ships into the Channel and picked up by fishing vessels or rigid hulled inflatable boats.

Biggar said: "While we need to respond to a range of new challenges, we cannot take our eyes off the drug threat.

"It has always caused a lot of harm, it is evolving fast, and we need to stay on top of it."

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