Could the Black Country see a political shake-up in 2026?

What happens in the Black Country in 2026, could well be a sign of what is to come elsewhere in the coming years.

Political upheaval at a local level is often limited in the region because only a third of seats are up for grabs at election time.

But boundary changes in Sandwell and Walsall mean every seat will be contested in May 2026.

They are two boroughs which are prime targets for Reform UK.

Sandwell has long been a Labour stronghold, so much so there have been times in the last decade when they held all 72 council seats.

But the grip has loosened in recent years, with Conservatives making inroads in Sandwell towns such as West Bromwich, Tipton and Wednesbury.

While some ground was regained at the general election, Labour councillors in the borough are nervous and feel many of their wards, which include some of the most deprived in the country, are fertile ground for the insurgent party in UK politics.

It is a similar story in Walsall.

In September, Reform UK won a by-election triggered by the resignation of the council's Conservative leader.

The Tories in Walsall have spent much of the last year dealing with internal disputes and Reform UK see an opportunity.

Elsewhere, more traditional elections take place in Wolverhampton and Dudley, where the usual third of seats are up for grabs.

Privately, Conservatives in Dudley say they are quietly confident of retaining control of the council, but express relief that an all-out election to deal with boundary changes was dealt with in 2024.

It means they are only defending a small number of seats in May, and have less to lose.

Likewise for Labour in Wolverhampton, where there is the added reassurance that previous parties led by Nigel Farage, such as UKIP, never had the sort of breakthroughs managed on a small scale in Walsall and Dudley.

Amid all that, however, is the fact the Black Country was at the heart of the raise the colours movement during the summer, which saw thousands of Union Jack and St George's Cross flags hoisted on lampposts and statues.

While the flag movement has received support from voices across the political spectrum, it is Reform UK which has put the sometimes divisive issue at the front and centre of its agenda.

But why does what happens in this corner of the West Midlands matter?

It is important to say that in elections which generally have a low turnout, it is easier for a committed band of campaigners and voters to make a big difference.

Turning that into success at a national level is tougher.

But wins in the Black Country for Reform UK would be a huge statement - and neighbouring Reform UK-run councils working together is a mouthwatering prospect for the party leadership. It would give them a louder voice nationally.

Yet power can bring other challenges as the party has discovered in nearby Staffordshire where it has been embroiled in a row over racism.

For the Tories, these elections could well be a defining moment, a chance to prove they are still relevant.

The Labour government is hoping that increased council budgets, targeted cash for poorer areas and measures to improve the wider economy can win people back round.

But these are long term changes and May is only five months away.

And speaking to people who live in the places that ministers say will benefit most, you often encounter the belief that nothing will change for them.

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