Five things to watch in Birmingham in 2026

As the new year begins, what will 2026 bring for a city that's had its fair share of issues in recent times?

A bin strike unresolved, government commissioners firmly still in place, and an all-out election on the cards mean the prospect of more turmoil hasn't gone away.

While full budget details for 2026-27 are still being finalised at the city council, there is cautious optimism that the challenging financial situation is stabilising.

But there remains a long way to go before the authority can consider itself fully recovered, both practically and reputationally.

Back in spring 2025 it was being said with almost comic tones - "at this rate, we'll be here until Christmas".

But that's exactly what happened. Refuse workers at Birmingham City Council, now joined by some of their agency colleagues, are still in dispute with the authority over several different aspects of pay and conditions.

Any disruption to main waste collections is mostly being mitigated by the council - at an extra cost. But recycling rates are dire and mean the second city, already performing badly on that metric, has sunk further.

The council insists it has made a fair offer and is now pushing forward with key modernisation by June 2026, meaning fortnightly collections and a new food waste service - whether or not workers are still on strike.

But the council cannot realistically make financially efficient long-term waste improvement changes for residents without a fully functioning workforce.

Unite says no credible deal has been made, that no workers should have to accept pay cuts, and that it's in for the long haul. The union continues to man picket lines and pay an allowance to workers who are in dispute.

One of the wins for the council in 2025 was an agreement of a deal for thousands of female workers that will rectify years of unequal pay.

Two trade unions had brought a dispute after a landmark court ruling in 2012. The original estimated liability of £760m was a large part of the reason for the de facto bankruptcy declared in 2023 and the financial woes and cuts that followed.

Now low-paid teaching assistants, catering staff and care workers have found out the amount they will be getting, with those payouts estimated to total about £250m.

So would that difference of £500m put such a sum back into the pot? It's not that simple. That is money that never existed in the first place.

Questions over whether the figure of £760m was accurate have been raised, but commissioners have been clear that the council had to estimate a worst case scenario, and that financial problems would have existed in any case.

In 2026, female workers may finally feel vindicated. And the council will hope it puts to bed an issue that has dogged it for years.

In short, it's highly likely.

But the early indications are that the rise will be lower than the steep 10% and 7.5% increases residents have had to put up with for the past two years.

It will be for councillors to set the rate as part of its budget, but Tony McArdle - the lead commissioner brought in by the government to oversee the failing council - has said he thinks a rise above 4.99% would be "extraordinary" given the current picture.

And that picture looks better than it did a year ago.

So why is that?

We wait to see the detail, but council leader John Cotton, Labour, has said this year's budget will be balanced, and won't need to rely on additional extraordinary measures like selling more assets.

There's also the fact that the latest funding settlement from government has been generous to Birmingham and gives some element of medium term financial stability.

But any improvement is very fragile. And critics say that this won't change the damage to services already cut, or give reassurance that more financial turmoil won't arise unless the way the council is run is changed.

The financial questions come as the council faces an all-out election in May that will see 101 council seats up for grabs.

As well as the prospect of political churn there are a number of councillors who have indicated they won't be standing, meaning the possibility of a relatively new cohort.

Commissioners have made clear they will set out an action plan in January that will give little wiggle room for whoever is in charge in terms of keeping the finances on the straight and narrow.

And there's no sign of government intervention disappearing just yet, with oversight likely to be in place until 2028.