You Predict The Future: Your challenge forecasts so far
Getty ImagesWe’re exploring how well our readers predict the year ahead, on topics ranging from Brexit to disease outbreaks. This is how you've done so far.
They say a week is a long time in politics, but what about six months? We’re now roughly halfway through BBC Future and Nesta’s prediction challenge You Predict The Future: Brexit and Beyond, where we’ve invited readers to take part.
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With questions ranging from Brexit to Trump, from measles to space exploration and Facebook to exchange rates, our readers have been beavering away trying to work out the most likely outcomes.
The questions are formulated with a number of possible outcomes, and you assign a percentage likelihood to each one, totalling 100%. You are able to go back and change your answer as many times as you like, if you’ve done further research, or if new events come to light. Here is an example of a question:
How many cases of measles will there be in the US in 2019?
A: Less than 1,250
B: Between 1,250 and 1,500, inclusive
C: More than 1,500 but less than 1,750
D: Between 1,750 and 2,000, inclusive
E: More than 2,000
So far, four of our questions have closed, and we have the results of two of them. We began this year by asking a question about Brexit and Article 50 (the treaty setting out what happens when a country decides to leave the European Union):
Before 30 March 2019, what will happen next with regard to the UK's notification of Article 50?
A: It will be revoked by the UK
B: It will be extended by the UK and the European Council
C: Neither of the above will occur and the UK will leave the EU
There was some variation in predictions until 6 January 2019, when our forecasters split into much clearer camps. The crowd assigned over 50% likelihood that Article 50 would be extended, which grew steadily over time, until the close of the forecast, the crowd assigned an 83% likelihood that Article 50 would be extended. At this point, according to our forecasters, there was just a 13% likelihood that neither would happen and the UK would leave, and less than 4% likelihood that the UK would revoke Article 50.
As you may have heard, Theresa May wrote to the EU to request a delay to Brexit on 5 April 2019. So our forecasters’ growing confidence in their predictions was well-placed.
Getty ImagesThe second question we have results for is:
What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 April 2019?
A: Below €1.00
B: Between €1.00 and €1.10, inclusive
C: More than €1.10 but less than €1.20
D: Between €1.20 and €1.30, inclusive
E: More than €1.30
This followed a relatively similar pattern as the last, but with much more extreme results. By the close of the question on 31 March 2019, our forecasters had correctly assigned a 96% likelihood of answer C, and the other options all received 2% or less of the prediction share.
So it seems that so far, our forecasters have been doing pretty well.
It’s more than just a bit of fun though – participating will help us research what it takes to be a good forecaster, and how people go about making predictions. And there are benefits to taking part: with practice, anyone can improve their prediction ability, and research suggests that it could, for example, increase your open-mindedness, and help you to avoid blinkered reasoning.
With more questions opening every month, it’s not too late to get involved with the challenge. There could be a talent hidden within you. Sign up here. [Update: The challenge is now closed.]
Note: The survey is run by Good Judgment and they will be responsible for any personal data you provide. Read the site's privacy policy.
Amy Charles is BBC Future’s social media producer. She is @amycharles on Twitter.
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