Why peril could lie in the Welsh valleys for Starmer

In a little over 100 days – three and a half months time – voters in Wales will elect a new devolved government.

Opinion polls suggest the prospect of a groundbreaking result: Labour being rejected for the first time ever.

The valleys of South Wales are steeped in Labour's storied past.

Hardie, Bevan, Kinnock and Foot -- the giants of this movement have walked these streets.

But the mood within Welsh Labour as it contemplates elections across this nation is bleak, even black.

The contests here matter for their own sake as they will determine who is responsible for some of the most important public services people rely on every day – such as health and education, transport and planning.

But they have an outsized significance beyond Wales too, because it is possible the outcome of the races here could have the greatest bearing on Labour's reflections on Sir Keir Starmer's future as prime minister.

Why? The loss of Wales would be psychologically deeply wounding for Labour.

In the last decade or so, Labour lost swathes of its Scottish heartlands, in 2015, only to win them back in 2024. The party lost swathes of its Midlands and northern English heartlands too, in 2019, only to win them back in 2024.

But swathes of Wales, through good times and bad for Labour, kept the faith in the party. But perhaps no longer.

"Labour have won every election here at a devolved level since 1999, when devolution started," Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University tells me.

"Labour have also won every general election, for over a hundred years here. Now we are facing the prospect of not only Labour not being the largest party, but potentially not even the second or third largest party."

"The speed of Labour's collapse has surprised people, not least Labour itself" says Laura McAllister, professor of public policy and the governance of Wales at the Wales Governance Centre.

The party confronts double incumbency – they're in government in Cardiff and London.

So a weary, impatient electorate can, if it so chooses, unleash a double dose of blame, both on Labour. It is precisely that which so many Labour folk fear.

Unattached observers here relish in a rarity: a really competitive election.

Right now at least, it is the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru and Reform UK seemingly making the running.

"When you are in government for a long time, you pay a price, because inevitably you annoy enough people that you just put enough people off, opening up the space for other parties, Plaid and Reform, to potentially compete to become the next government," notes Larner.

"Plaid Cymru have always played an important role in devolved politics. But now, all the evidence seems to point to them being the favourite to be the largest party, as things stand, and that is very, very new."

Why is this happening? "For Plaid we are also seeing big societal changes. More people than ever before describe themselves as Welsh only," says Larner.

McAllister is the author of the book 'Plaid Cymru: the Emergence of a Political Party' and was a candidate for Plaid more than three decades ago. If the opinion polls are to be believed, a new chapter or perhaps a new book will be in order.

"I don't know how permanent the party realignment genuinely is. At least for some they are seen as the best placed to defeat Reform. But they had to be in a strong position in the first place to be seen to be in that position. They are making an argument about being the best party to stand up for Wales. Welsh Labour used to be seen to be that by many," says McAllister.

So what about Reform UK? The party has been leading UK wide opinion polls for months on end now and eyes the election here in Wales with enthusiasm. Nigel Farage has talked about it as a big moment for ages.

The Conservatives have long had to haul around the blame from many, fairly or otherwise, for de-industrialisation, in these parts, perhaps artificially squeezing down the sense of the size of the electorate here that might otherwise consider a party of the Right.

"For Reform UK, they don't have all that historic baggage. And therefore we are potentially seeing the rise of viable right wing party in Wales for government," observes Larner.

Put all this together and we are witnessing a contest where, at least at this stage, the two big beasts of Westminster politics, Labour and the Conservatives, are a shrivelled sideshow.

Privately, senior Labour figures reflect on the vast experience they bring to governing Wales, something neither Plaid nor Reform have.

Comparative novices could soon be running the place.

But the electorate appear to be telling Labour at the moment experience is a double-edged sword and the prospect of the new and novel appears alluring to many.

For so long the giants of Welsh politics, Labour confront social changes and a fragmented electorate in the political home of its founding father, Keir Hardie.

The Labour movement contemplates the psychological wound a defeat here would leave on its contemporary Keir – Keir Starmer -- and the questions that could place in flashing lights over his future.

Sign up for our Politics Essential newsletter to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.