Gareth Lewis: 'Can anything describe the scale of Labour's defeat?'

Gareth LewisBBC Wales
Getty Images Chris Carter, Labour Candidate in the Casnewydd Islwyn Senedd constituency before the start of the count at the Geraint Thomas National Velodrome, Newport, where the Senedd vote count is due to start this morning, May 8, 2026 in Newport, Wales. Reform UK is emerging as a major contender for the 7 May 2026 Senedd election, with current polling suggesting it could become either the largest or second-largest party in Wales.Getty Images
Welsh Labour has conceded it has lost the Senedd election

How to put this in to words?

What adjective adequately describes the sheer and utter scale of Labour's collapse in Wales?

The symbol of the party's defeat might well be the failure of First Minister Eluned Morgan to win a seat, but it is bigger than that.

Perhaps it is best described in terms of things you thought you'd never see in your life.

As someone born and brought up in Bridgend with a wider family from Cynon Valley - traditional south Wales Labour heartlands - this fits in that category.

Labour themselves have not been short of words.

"Disastrous", "catastrophic" and "devastating" have all been thrown around.

Perhaps most devastating of all have been the words in dramatic black and white in a Welsh Labour press release sent out at 13:25 on Friday.

It read: "It is looking like Welsh Labour will return a group of around 10 MSs - which will at least allow a vocal Labour opposition, even though we are deeply disappointed about not being able to lead a government."

Ouch.

Let's break it down.

That is 10 of 96 seats compared to 30 of 60 in 2021.

Getty Images Dan Thomas, Leader of Reform in Wales visits the Casnewydd Islwyn Senedd constituency vote count, at the Geraint Thomas National Velodrome, Newport. The 2026 Senedd election marks a major overhaul of the Welsh Parliament as the number of Members increases from 60 to 96. Under a new proportional system, voters cast a single vote for a party list across 16 new constituencies, each electing six representatives. Getty Images
In Casnewydd Islwyn Reform won most votes and took two seats

"Vocal opposition" is scant consolation after 27 years of running a government and more than a century of winning elections in Wales.

And "deeply disappointed".

It is the most understated euphemism for despair I've seen today.

What has caused this monumental defeat?

There are plenty of words to write about that, including the Welsh party's own record, voters' disillusionment, the unpopularity of Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a desire for change for many people.

On the basis of what we have been hearing today three words stand out.

They are "two horse race".

Those are the words Plaid Cymru has used throughout the campaign, pitching the fight as Plaid v Reform.

It appears voters who want to keep Reform out have been convinced.

It might be enough to have given Labour a drubbing, we still don't know if Plaid has done enough to beat Reform.

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