Can a Reform leader in Wales share the spotlight with Farage?

Nigel Farage knows how to hold a room full of Reform supporters.

I have watched him close-up at events in Newport, Port Talbot, Birmingham and Llandudno over the past 15 months and party members look like they hang on his every word.

For many, whatever their reason for joining, Farage 'is' Reform.

That makes the heavily-rumoured imminent appointment of a Welsh leader, just three months before Wales's Senedd election on 7 May, all the more intriguing.

The party also looks to be on the verge of unveiling some Wales-specific policies and pledges, of which there are precious few.

We're also still waiting to see if former Conservative Member of the Senedd (MS) James Evans becomes the latest high-profile defector.

There is a school of thought that Reform needs to regain momentum in Wales after a difficult autumn, and the possibility that it might have plateaued in the polls.

It suffered defeat in the Caerphilly by-election, faced the scandal of former Welsh leader Nathan Gill and had to deal with allegations of racism against Farage from former schoolmates, which he denies.

Prepare yourself for more questions than answers.

How much room is there in Reform for someone else to share the spotlight with Farage between now and May, and beyond?

What sort of relationship will the new leader have with the man that some in the party refer to as "the boss"?

Will that new leader be able to plough a distinctly Welsh path?

Who will make the ultimate call if there is a difficult choice relating to Wales, and would Reform-leaning Welsh voters prefer Farage or the Welsh leader to make that decision?

Will Farage or the Welsh leader call the shots more generally on Wales?

What is Reform's policy platform for this election?

And who will sign off the manifesto?

Why does this matter?

Well, recent polling suggests that the new leader could be in the running to head the biggest party in May, could become first minister, and could end up running the Welsh government.

That said, some sources in Reform now suggest that a more realistic goal would be to become biggest opposition party, in all likelihood behind Plaid Cymru.

That would nonetheless be a huge achievement even if not the ultimate goal. In the 2021 Senedd election Reform won just 1.6% of the vote.

Some sources also worry that the recent influx of high-profile Conservative defectors like Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick – and potentially James Evans - could harm the party in Wales, where there is little history of right-leaning electoral success.

You'll notice that we don't know yet who the leader will actually be.

Torfaen councillor Jason O'Connell looks to be in the running.

He was relatively tight-lipped on BBC Wales's Politics Wales programme on Sunday, but did say he thought he would be up to the job.

He has also done a lot of other media work recently, including an appearance on the flagship Today programme on Radio 4 and fronting a Reform party political broadcast.

Llyr Powell built up a profile as Reform candidate in the Caerphilly by-election last year, but defeat at the hands of Plaid Cymru was a chastening experience and might play in to the party's potential tempering of ambitions for May.

Reform's only current MS, Laura Anne Jones, has demurred when asked if she would want to be leader - but also has a recent suspension from the Senedd on her CV.

Mark Reckless, previously Conservative, UKIP, Brexit Party, independent, and Abolish the Assembly Party, is a now a Reform member.

He has been present at many of their big recent Welsh events including Caerphilly and the rally in Llandudno, and is helping to craft policies and the manifesto.

Former Conservative Welsh secretary David Jones made it clear when he joined that he did not want to run again for elected office.

Until we get the name of the leader, a set of policies and a list of confirmed candidates, Reform in Wales will remain something of a mystery.

There had been an indication before Christmas that after its difficult autumn, Reform would hit the ground running in Wales in the New Year.

They certainly did not in January.

But they could be about to make up for lost time.

After a period of relative silence any announcements from Farage – or a new Welsh leader – will make the election itself seem even closer.

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