Why every vote will count in Gorton and Denton by-election

One of most unpredictable parliamentary by-elections in recent years is about to come to a conclusion, with every vote set to count.

The Gorton and Denton areas have been a Labour stronghold for decades, although the constituency that now brings those two places together is only two years old.

The by-election was brought about by the resignation, due to ill health, of the now former MP, Andrew Gwynne. He had risen to the ranks of Health Minister before being suspended over offensive WhatsApp messages.

Eleven candidates have been out in force delivering leaflets and knocking on doors hoping to persuade the public to back them. This final day of campaigning will be no less intense.

Last year's parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was decided by just six votes with Reform UK gaining their first MP in the North West.

With a 13,000 majority from the 2024 general election, Gorton and Denton is Labour's to lose and it will be a significant fall from grace if they do.

Gwynne's decision to stand down last month created a major headache for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who then personally intervened to stop Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from becoming the Labour candidate. Some in the party fear it's a decision he may come to regret.

This week, the prime minister attended a rally at a community centre in Levenshulme to show support for Manchester councillor Angeliki Stogia, who won the selection. Chatter among the Labour activists was that Sir Keir's arrival meant there must be growing confidence in senior ranks that the party can hang on to the seat.

Starmer was eager to pitch it as a two horse race between Labour and Reform UK, accusing their opponents - as they have done throughout the campaign - of divisive politics. He dismissed the Green Party's chances and said supporting them was effectively a "vote for Reform".

Reform UK came second in 2024 and leader Nigel Farage has been a very visible support to the TV presenter chosen as his candidate, Matt Goodwin. He's campaigned on this by-election being a referendum on the prime minister and is predicting he can take it.

The Green Party, who came third last time, are adamant they are in this race too and the bookies tend to agree. Their candidate, plumber Hannah Spencer, has championed her working class credentials as the party urges those residents on the left of politics to give her party a try.

Most analysts agree these three parties are the only ones likely to win, but the other eight candidates are intent on playing their part.

Like last year's closely run by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, every vote will count this week in a race that is too close to call.

You can find the full list of all 11 candidates standing in the by-election here.

Listen to the best of BBC Radio Manchester on Sounds and follow BBC Manchester on Facebook, X, and Instagram. You can also send story ideas via Whatsapp to 0808 100 2230.