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Five things to watch in the South East's election results

Helen CattSouth East political editor
BBC Two dark haired men in grey jumpers and two women, one with white hair, a black top and glasses and one with blonde short hair and a cream jumper counting ballot papers at a fold-down table, with three baskets of ballots in front of themBBC
Votes being counted at a council by-election in Kent in April

The votes are in across Sussex and Surrey and, for the candidates, it is all over bar the counting.

All 120 seats across East and West Sussex county councils were up for election, along with 162 seats on two brand new councils in East Surrey and West Surrey.

There were also partial elections for borough and district councils in Hastings, Crawley, Adur and Worthing.

So as nimble-fingered counters limber up in leisure centres and hotels across the three counties, what are the key things to look out for in today's results?

Will the Lib Dems replace the Conservatives as the dominant force in Sussex and Surrey?

PA Media Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey in a wax jacket in front of a number of orange Liberal Democrat diamond-shaped placardsPA Media
Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey has been campaigning across Sussex and Surrey

For decades, the Conservatives have dominated politics in the South East.

At the General Election in 2024, the Liberal Democrats broke through to win several historically Tory seats in East and West Sussex for the first time, and they hope to do the same with county councils.

The Lib Dems are particularly confident of winning the new West Surrey authority and have hopes of becoming at least the largest party on East Surrey, East Sussex and West Sussex.

But could Reform UK and the Greens be an obstacle to their hopes? And what about Independents and Residents' Associations, who have a long history of winning seats in Surrey?

Can Reform UK repeat its Kent landslide in East or West Sussex?

PA Media Nigel Farage wearing a blue-grey blazer and teal tie walks along a street flanked by two men in suits with Reform UK rosettesPA Media
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has visited Sussex several times during this campaign

At elections for Kent County Council in 2025, Reform UK swept the board.

The party won 57 of the 81 seats, reducing the Conservatives, who had previously been in charge, to single figures.

Expectations among party sources seem slightly more tempered for East and West Sussex, although Reform UK does expect to do very well in both counties.

Particular places to watch will be Crawley, Worthing, Bognor Regis, Littlehampton and Hastings, where senior figures have been out campaigning.

Could tactical voting in places like Worthing, where there has been some vocal opposition to Reform, and where the Greens also expect to do well, have an impact?

Could Hastings give the Greens their first majority-controlled council in the South East?

Zack Polanski wearing a dark anorak addressing a crowd of people with their phones and cameras raised
The Green Party is optimistic about gains in East Sussex

The Greens already run some councils in the South East, including Hastings, and they have previously run Brighton & Hove.

Each time, though, they have either been a minority administration or are running a council as part of a coalition with other parties.

No party won Hastings outright last time the council held elections. This year, it has been looking like a fight between the Greens and Reform UK.

Party sources say they are feeling good about their chances in Hastings.

If they were to win a majority, it would be a big deal. Prior to these elections, the Greens have only had a majority on one council in England: Mid Suffolk.

Could Adur be a bright spot for Labour?

PA Media Keir Starmer in dark suit and white shirt addressing a group of activists holding yellow placards with red writing which reads Vote LabourPA Media
Keir Starmer's party is expecting bad results across England but has hopes of retaining Adur

Labour is expecting a bad set of results across England and neither Surrey nor Sussex, outside of Brighton, has traditionally been much of a stronghold for the party.

In Worthing, the Greens and Reform UK both have high hopes of making gains but several Labour sources have been quite upbeat about their chances of holding on to Adur. Will they be proved right?

Barring total electoral catastrophe, Labour should expect to emerge from these elections still in charge at Crawley Borough Council.

That is just because of the maths: at Crawley, just a third of seats are up for election this year and Labour would have to lose every single one it is defending to lose its majority.

A significant number of losses would still be damaging for the party, though, even if it keeps control.

Can the Conservatives avoid a wipeout?

PA Media Kemi Badenoch in a brown suit and white top walking down a street with a small crowd of activists holding blue placards reading "stronger economy, stronger country".PA Media
Kemi Badenoch is facing a challenge in her party's heartlands

The Conservatives no longer hold power in any district or borough councils in East or West Sussex.

Few people expect them to still be running East or West Sussex County Councils after the votes are counted or to win either of the new authorities in Surrey.

It is striking how much that assumption has been "priced in" to political thinking across the South East.

Attention is likely to focus on the scale of any losses in what has traditionally been their heartlands.

In particular, the Tories will be hoping to avoid the sort of near-wipeout they saw in Kent in 2025.

It is worth paying particular attention to how they perform in areas they held at the General Election, such as East Grinstead, Bexhill and Battle and Sussex Weald.

And, of course, party activists will be avidly looking for any sign of a resurgence or where they do hold seats in parts of the South East

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