What's happening to UK petrol and diesel prices?

Motorists in the UK have faced higher fuel costs since the US-Israel war with Iran began.

Fuel prices surged when the conflict began on 28 February, with the production and transportation of energy across the Middle East slowing or stopping entirely due to missile strikes and drone attacks.

Motoring group RAC has said prices at the pump could keep rising if there is no resolution to the conflict.

Crude oil is a key ingredient in petrol and diesel, meaning higher wholesale costs make filling up a car more expensive.

Analysts say every $10 (£7.53) increase in the oil price pushes up pump prices by roughly 7p a litre.

Since the war began, the price of a barrel of Brent crude – the global benchmark for wholesale oil prices – has been very volatile, jumping from $73 to as high as $126 a barrel at one point, the highest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The cost of filling a typical family car with petrol went up by around £14. A tank of diesel became £27 more expensive.

The price of petrol peaked at 158.3p a litre and diesel reached 191.5p a litre, the RAC said.

Figures from the motoring group show average petrol and diesel prices started to ease slightly on 16 April, falling after 46 days of increases – the longest run of consecutive rises on record.

But petrol has started to rise again, and diesel may do the same if the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues.

On 5 May, petrol was 157.2p a litre, and diesel 188.3p.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said the outlook for the coming weeks was "ominous".

"Wholesale petrol and diesel prices jumped by around 5p a litre last week, and are now at their highest since the war began," he said.

"If oil prices, and in turn wholesale fuel prices, remain at elevated levels over the coming weeks then future price rises at forecourts are all but inevitable."

Prices remain below the levels reached in summer 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when petrol reached 191.5p and diesel hit 199p a litre.

Because transporting oil is a slow process, price movements in the wholesale markets take about a fortnight to show at the pump.

Fuel retailers have denied accusations of price gouging during the conflict. The official markets regulator investigated these claims and said that profit margins were "broadly unchanged" between February and March.

A new government scheme lets drivers compare the cost of fuel offered by petrol stations across the UK.

For the wholesale markets, the most critical issue remains the status of the Strait of Hormuz.

Usually about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the waterway, but it has been effectively closed since the war began.

Analysis by BBC Verify shows that only a handful of ships have passed through the Strait since a temporary ceasefire was announced – under normal circumstances, around 138 vessels make the crossing every day.

Oil prices fell following the ceasefire, but have risen sharply in the weeks since as the strait remained closed.

US President Donald Trump has announced that the US military would "guide" cargo ships through the strait under "Project Freedom", but Iran has said vessels can only cross it with its authorisation.

The continued uncertainty around the Strait means that oil prices are likely to remain above pre-war levels.

Additionally, oil and gas facilities have been damaged across the Gulf, badly disrupting refining capacity.

The UAE has accused Iran of striking its Fujairah oil industry zone - one of the largest oil storage facilities in the Middle East.

The UK is heavily reliant on oil and gas imports, with the majority coming from the US and Norway.

The price of oil on the global market determines how much the UK pays for it.

Although the UK does get some oil from the North Sea, most of that is exported for refining elsewhere.

In April, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the UK was not facing an immediate shortage of petrol, diesel, or jet fuel.

Oil makes up 35% of the UK's total energy supply, according to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. As a member of the IEA, the UK must hold 90 days' worth of net oil imports, but currently has more than this.

In March, the boss of oil giant Shell warned that there could be a fuel shortage in Europe within weeks because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

His comments came after the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggested a number of measures to reduce energy and fuel use in response to the conflict, including working from home and carpooling.

Meanwhile, the IEA has said Europe has "maybe six weeks of jet fuel left".

Airlines UK, which represents the industry, said while it was not seeing disruption to UK jet fuel supply, it was talking to the government about "crucial measures" that would be needed to support the aviation industry in the event of fuel disruption.

Some analysts said that restrictions on new drilling licences in the North Sea should be eased to limit price rises for households, but others argued this was unlikely to significantly reduce energy prices for the public.

In the short term, millions of UK householders' domestic gas and electricity bills are shielded from any impact on wholesale costs paid by suppliers.

People whose energy bills are covered by the price cap saw their unit costs fall in April, and those will not change until the end of June.

However, depending on whether peace talks are successful, bills could rise when the next price cap takes effect at the start of July.

Anyone who already has a fixed energy tariff won't see a price rise for the length of their contract. But some suppliers have been pulling cheaper fixed deals for new customers off the market.

Heating oil is used by many households in Northern Ireland, and in some rural areas. The cost of that fluctuates more directly in response to the oil price, so the latest global uncertainty has pushed up bills for those households refilling their tanks.

The government announced a £53m support package to help those affected.

Additional reporting by Emer Moreau, Kevin Peachey, and Dearbail Jordan

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