Labour apprenticeships claim criticised by watchdog
Getty ImagesFirst Minister Eluned Morgan's claim that Labour has beaten a target to create apprenticeships is "not supported by rigorous" data and could be seen as "cherry picking", the statistics watchdog has said.
Opponents have criticised the Welsh government for counting apprentices who leave training places within eight weeks.
Those apprentices would have been excluded from "the well-established 'rigorous' measure", according to Penny Young, interim chair of the UK Statistics Authority.
At the last Senedd election in May 2021, Labour promised 125,000 apprenticeships, reduced to 100,000 in 2024.
In February, ministers – including the first minister – started saying the Welsh government had beaten the 100,000 target.
The claim is based on recent "management information" that includes everyone who starts as an apprentice.
Under the more rigorous measure, excluding those who leave before eight weeks, only 92,800 apprenticeships would have been counted when the first minister made her claim in February.
The government previously relied on officially verified statistics, which reduced the count of apprentices.
Asked when it started using management information, the government told BBC Wales ministers reviewed the delivery of apprenticeships last autumn "as part of the wider 'more jobs' priority".
In her letter, Young says the first minister's claim "is not supported by the rigorous measure and appears to create an inconsistency with previous reporting and could be perceived as cherry-picking the data".
She adds: "Transparency matters because it enables debate to focus on the important issues.
"It is crucial to avoid using data that is overly selective or missing appropriate context.
"Being clear on definitions and the evidence underpinning any such statements can help maintain public confidence in statistics and the organisations that produce them."
Conservative shadow education secretary Natasha Asghar accused the Welsh government of "misleading" young people.
"Labour fell short of their target by a wide margin, but still claimed success. Now it's clear they have also missed their revised target by 8,000," she said.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth accused the government of "massaging" the figures on apprenticeships during first minister's questions in the Senedd in February.
After Young's letter emerged, Plaid economy spokesperson Luke Fletcher said: "Rather than owning up, Labour have moved the goal posts, but the people of Wales won't be hoodwinked."
Reform Wales leader Dan Thomas said Labour was "trying to take Welsh people for fools with massaged statistics".
The first minister has repeated her claim since Young's letter was sent on 13 March, including in her final Senedd question time before May's election on Tuesday.
In a statement, a Welsh government spokesperson said: "We are delighted to have created more than 100,000 apprenticeship opportunities during this Senedd term, according to the latest management information from Medr.
"The data so far also shows over 91% of apprentices remained on their course beyond the first eight weeks.
"Apprenticeships are an incredibly valuable pathway into employment and play a key role in developing skills, supporting businesses, and strengthening the Welsh economy."
