Me zai faru idan Ukraine ta yi amfani da makamai masu dogon zango kan Rasha?

Jami'ai a Amurka sun ce shugaba Joe Biden ya bai wa Ukraine damar amfani da makamai masu cin dongon zango da Washington ɗin ta ba ta, domin far wa Rasha.

A baya, Washington ta ki amincewa da amfani da makaman na ATACMS wadda ƙasar ta ƙera, saboda tana fargabar cewa hakan zai janyo munanan yaƙi.

Amincewa da amfani da makaman masu cin dogon zango na zuwa ne watanni biyu kafin shugaba Joe Biden ya miƙa ragamar mulki ga sabon zaɓaɓɓen shugaba Donald Trump, wadda nasararsa ta sanya shakku kan makomar taimakon da Amurka ke bai wa Kyiv.

Me ya sa Amurka ta ba Ukraine damar amfani da makamai masu dogon zango kan Rasha?

Ukraine ta ɗauki tsawon lokaci tana amfani da nau'in maƙamai waɗanda ake kira ATACMS, wajen kai hare-hare kan Rasha musamman a yankunan ƙasar da Rashar ta mamaye sama da shekara ɗaya.

Sai dai Amurka ba ta taɓa bai wa Kyiv damar amfani da makaman linzami masu dogon zango ba zuwa cikin Rasha - sai yanzu.

Makaman masu linzami sune mafiya ƙarfi da aka bai wa Ukraine kawo yanzu, waɗanda za su iya tafiyar kilomita 300 a sama.

Ukraine ta ƙalubalanci cewa hana ta amfani da irin waɗannan makamai a yaƙin da take yi da Rasha kamar tilasta mata yin faɗa da hannu ɗaya ne.

An ruwaito cewa matakin na zuwa ne a matsayin martani na tura dakarun Koriya Ta Arewa domin zuwa su taimaka wa Rasha a iyakar yankin Kursk, wanda Ukraine ta mamaye tun a cikin watan Agusta.

Haka kuma, komawa fadar White House da Donald Trump ya yi, ta sanya fargaba kan makomar taimakon da Amurka ke bai wa Ukraine, kuma shugaba Joe Biden na iya ƙoƙarinsa wajen ganin ya taimaka a ɗan ƙankanin lokaci da ya rage masa kan mulki.

Ƙara wa Ukraine ƙarfin soji - zai ba ta damar ta yi yadda take so a duk wata tattaunawar zaman lafiya a nan gaba.

Shugaban Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky bai kai ga tabbatar da matakin ba.

Wane tasiri makaman za su yi a fagen daga?

Ukraine za ta iya kai farmaki cikin Rasha a yanzu, musamman ma farawa ta yankin Kursk, inda dakarun Ukraine ɗin ke riƙe da wani babban yanki.

Ƴan Ukraine da kuma jami'an Amurka na sa ran martani daga Rasha da kuma dakarun Koriya Ta Arewa domin sake ƙwace iko da yankin Kursk.

Ukraine za ta iya amfani da makaman na ATACMS domin kare kanta, inda za ta hari muhimman wurare a Rasha, ciki har da sansanin sojoji, gine-gine da kuma wurin ajiyar makamai.

Samar da makaman linzamin ba zai sa akalar yaƙin ya sauya ba.

Tuni aka aika makaman sojin Rasha kamar jiragen yaƙi masu saukar ungulu zuwa filin saukar jirage can cikin Rasha domin shirin ko-ta-kwana.

Sai dai makaman za su iya bai wa Ukraine wata dama a daidai lokacin da sojojin Rasha ke ƙara ƙwace wurare a gabashin ƙasar.

"Ba na tsammanin matakin zai kawo wani sauyi," kamar yadda wani masanin diflomasiyyar ƙasashen Yamma ya faɗa wa BBC, inda ya nemi a sakaya sunansa saboda girman batun.

"Duk da haka, mataki ne da zai ƙara musu karsashi da kuma nuna taimakon soji ga Ukraine.

"Ɗawainiyar da Rasha take yi ko kudin da take kashewa a yaƙin zai ƙaru a yanzu."

Akwai kuma tambaya kan yawan harsasai da za a samar, a cewar Evelyn Farkas, wadda ta taɓa zama mataimakiyar sakataren tsaro a lokacin mulkin Obama.

"Tambayar ita ce, makamai masu linzami nawa suke da shi? Mun ji cewa Pentagon ta yi gargaɗin cewa babu makamai masu linzami da yawa da za su iya samar wa Ukraine."

Farkas ta ƙara da cewa makaman na ATACMS "za su yi tasiri sosai a yaƙin Ukraine" idan aka yi amfani da su kan shingaye irin su gadar Kerch, wadda ta haɗa yankin Crimea da kuma sauran Rasha.

Damar da Amurka ta bai wa Ukraine ɗin za ta kuma saka Birtaniya da Faransa su ma su bai wa Ukraine damar amfani da wasu manyan makamai masu cin dogon zango kan Rasha.

Shin matakin zai janyo ƙazancewar yaƙi?

Gwamnatin Biden ta ƙi amincewa Ukraine ta yi amfani da makaman masu cin dogon zango tsawon watanni, inda take fargabar yaɗuwar rikici.

Vladimir Putin ya yi gargaɗi kan amfani da makaman ƙasashen yamma wajen kai wa Rasha hari, inda ya ce Moscow za ta kalli hakan a matsayin "shiga yaƙin Ukraine kai-tsaye" na ƙasashen Nato.

"Hakan zai sauya abubuwa, yanayin rikicin," in ji Putin a watan Satumba. "Wannan na nufin ƙasashen ƙungiyar Nato, da Amurka da kuma Turai, na faɗa da Rasha."

Rasha ta shata iyaka a baya. Waɗanda suka haɗa da samar da tankokin yaƙi na zamani da kuma jiragen yaƙi a Ukraine, inda suka tsallaka ba tare da janyo faɗa kai-tsaye ba da Nato.

Wani tsohon jakadan Amurka a Nato, Kurt Volker, ya ce: "Amurka ta yanke hukuncin hana Ukraine amfani da wasu makamanta ne domin kare ta."

Ya ƙara da cewa an ɗauki matakin takaita wa Ukraine amfani da makamai masu cin dogon zango ne saboda fargabar takalar Rasha.

"Duk da haka, babban kuskure ne a fito a faɗi irin wannan sauyi a bainar jama'a, saboda ya bai wa Rasha sanin cewa Ukraine na shirin far mata."

Wane mataki Donald Trump zai ɗauka?

Matakin na zuwa ne watanni biyu kafin Donald Trump ya koma fadar White House.

Tuni dai ya ce yana da niyyar kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Ukraine cikin gaggawa - ba tare da bayyana yadda zai yi ba - kuma zai iya soke amfani da makaman masu linzami masu cin dogon zangon da zarar ya hau mulki.

Har yanzu dai zaɓaɓɓen shugaban na Amurka bai bayyana ko zai ci gaba da wannan manufa ba, sai dai tuni wasu makusantansa suka soki batun.

Donald Trump Jr, ɗan Trump, ya rubuta a shafukan sada zumunta cewa: "Ɓangaren sojoji na son tabbatar da cewa an shiga yaƙin duniya na uku kafin mahaifina ya samu damar samar da zaman lafiya da ceton rayuka."

Da yawa daga cikin manyan jami'an Trump, irin su zaɓaɓɓen mataimakin shugaban ƙasa JD Vance, sun ce bai kamata Amurka ta sake ba da wani tallafin soji ga Ukraine ba.

Sai dai wasu a gwamnatin Trump mai zuwa suna da ra'ayi na daban. Mai ba da shawara kan harkokin tsaro Michael Waltz ya yi zargin cewa Amurka za ta iya hanzarta kai makamai zuwa Ukraine domin tilasta wa Rasha shiga tattaunawa.

Ba a dai san hanyar da zaɓaɓɓen shugaban ƙasar zai bi ba.

Sai dai da yawa a Ukraine na fargabar cewa zai katse samar da makamai da suka haɗa har da na cin dogon zango (ATACMS).

"Muna cikin damuwa. Muna fatan cewa Trump ba zai janye matakin ba," in ji Oleksiy Goncharenko, ɗan majalisar wakilai a Ukraine, a tattaunarwasa da BBC.