Wane tasiri Iran ke da shi a yanzu, shekara biyar bayan kisan Soleimani

Faɗuwar gwamnatin Syria wadda ke da goyon bayan Iran a watan da ya gabata ya kawo babban koma-baya ga ƙawancen 'masu kawo tarnaƙi', wani ƙawance da ke da matuƙar tasiri a gabas ta tsakiya. A ranar tunawa da zagayowar ranar mutuwar ɗaya daga cikin jagororin ƙawancen na shekara biyar, Qasem Soleimani, BBC ta yi dubi zuwa ga makomar haɗakar.

Shekaru biyar da suka gabata, lokacin mulkin Donald Trump, sojojin Amurka sun kai hari tare da hallaka Qassem Soleimani a Baghdad.

Soleimani shi ne kwamandan dakarun Quds na Iran, wani reshe na dakarun juyin juya hali na Iran (IRGC) da ke da alhakin ayyuka a ƙasashen waje, kuma babban mai ruwa da tsaki a tasirin da Iran ke da shi a yankin a harkar soji da kuma diflomasiyya.

Watanni uku kafin jirgi mara matuƙi na Amurka ya kashe shi a ranar 3 ga watan Janairu 2020, Soleimani ya gabatar da wani jawabin sirri ga kwamandojin IRGC inda ya yi magana kan ''yadda za a faɗaɗa tasiri da kuma ƙarfin ƙawancen masu kawo tarnaƙi.''

Hakan ya nuna kamar Soleimani na hango mutuwarsa, kuma yana so ya bayar da rahoto kan shugabancinsa na dakarun Qudus a cikin shekaru ashirin.

Ya ce: ''Dakarun IRGC sun kawo cigaba wajen haɗa ƙungiyar ta fannin yawa da kuma ƙarfinta, wanda ya ƙara faɗi daga yanki mai muraba'in kilomita 2000 a kudancin Lebanon zuwa murabba'in kilomita 500,000.''

Ya cigaba da cewa: ''Dakarun IRGC sun samar da mahaɗar yankuna tsakanin ƙasashen ƙungiyar, ma'ana sun haɗa Iran zuwa Iraq, Iraq zuwa Syria, da kuma Syria zuwa Lebanon. A yau za ka iya shiga mota a Tehran ka isa har kudancin Beirut.''

Ana ganin Kawancen masu kawo tarnaƙi a Iran a matsayin babbar nasarar Soleimani, sai dai a shekarar da ta gabata, ta fuskanci matsaloli da dama.

Lamarin da zai iya sauya yankin Gabas ta tsakiya

Faɗaɗa yanki da Iran ke yi ya faro ne a farkon shekarun 1980, a lokacin da ta taimaka wajen kafa ƙungiyar Hezbollah ta ƴan Shi'a a Lebanon domin kare su daga Amurka da Israila.

Daga bisani kuma rashin zaman lafiya a yankin sanadiyyar mamayar Amurka a Iraq a shekarar 2003, da guguwar sauyi ta yankin Larabawa a shekarar 2011, da ɓullowar masu tsatsauran ra'ayi mabiya aƙidar sunni, kamar ƙungiyar IS, ya samar da wata dama ga Iran na cigaba da karfafa zaman ta a yankin.

Aikewa da dakarun IRGC zuwa Syria, da kuma shigar ƙungiyoyin mayaƙan ƴan shi'a cikin Iraq da Lebanon, ya haifar da wata haɗakar yanki daga iyakokin Iran zuwa gaɓar tekun Bahar rum, wanda kuma ya kai har iyakokin Israila.

Daniel Sobelman, wani farfesa a jami'ar Hebrew da ke birnin Qudus, ya yi imanin cewa gabanin mamayar da Amurka ta yi wa Iraq a shekarar 2003, tunanin samar da mahaɗa tsakanin Iran da yankunan da take iko da su, ba abu ne mai yiwuwa ba.

''Yaƙin Iraq ya bai wa Iran damar yin nazari, ta hanyar haɗa yankinta daga Iraq da Syria daga nan kuma zuwa Lebanon,'' a cewar sa.

''Hakan na da muhimmanci sosai saboda ƙungiyar Hezbollah da ke Lebanon ta zama ƙungiyar da tafi muhimmanci a shirye-shiryen da Iran ke yi a yankin kuma mafi muhimmanci ga ƙawancen masu kawo tarnaƙi.''

Yemen ma ta faɗa cikin yaƙin basasa, wanda ya sanya babban birnin ta da kuma wasu manyan birane suka faɗa ƙarƙashin ikon mayakan Shi'a da ke da alaƙa da Iran.

Shingen kariya daga Isra'ila

A shekarun baya-bayan nan, ''ƙawancen masu kawo tarnaƙi'' ya zama wani alama na ƙawanacen yankin tsakanin ƙungoyoyin shi'a da wasu mabiya aƙidar Sunni, kamar Hamas da ke yankin Falasɗinawa da kuma masu ikirarin jihadi, da nufin tunkarar tasirin ƙasashen yamma da Isra'ila a gabas ta tsakiya.

Wannan ƙawancen, da ya haɗa ƙungiyoyin ƴan bindiga kamar Hezbollah a Lebanon, mayakan Shi'a a Iraqi, ƴan tawayen Houthi a Yemen, da kuma gwamnatin Bashar al-Assad da ta gabata a Syria, ta zamo babbar mai tallafa wa Iran a yankin.

Tabbas, ana ganin da gwamnatin Assad ta faɗi tun da wuri in ba don goyon bayan ƙawancen ba.

Ƙawancen masu kawo tarnaƙin sun kuma samar da wani shinge a kan iyakar Isra'ila wanda hakan ya zamo babbar kariya ga Iran daga Isaraila da kuma Amurka.

Yaƙin sojojin Amurka a Iraq da kuma Afghanisatan, wanda ya faro tun ƙarƙashin mulkin Shugaba George W Bush, da kuma damuwar da gwamnatin Obama ta nuna kan rugujewar yarjejeniyar makamin nukiliya na Iran saboda alaƙar Amurka da dakarun IRGC a Syria, na daga cikin abubuwan da suka taimaka wajen ƙarfafa matsayin Tehran a yankin da kuma faɗaɗa ƙawancen masu kawo tarnaƙi.

John Bolton, mai bayar da shawara kan harkokin tsaro a Amurka lokacin gwamnatin Trump, ya ce Iran ta yi nasara wajen ƙoƙarinta na karfafa sojinta da kuma ƙoƙarin faɗaɗa ƙawancenta a lokaci guda.

''Ƙoƙarin Iran na kafa abin da suka kira ƙawancen masu kawo tarnaƙi, abin da Soleimani da dakarun Qudus wasu lokutan suke bayyanawa a matsayin dabarun samar da wani shinge domin kare ta daga Isra'ila, ƙoƙarin ne mai muhimmanci,'' in ji shi.

''A gani na sun sanya biliyoyin daloli a tsawon lokaci, a wannan ƙoƙarin nasu, wanda ya fara da ƙirƙirowa da kuma kafa ƙungiyar Hezbollah a Lebanon.

Idan ka haɗa wannan da kuma shirye shiryen makaman nukiliya na Iran da kuma makamai masu linzami, sun sanya buri sosai kuma sun samu muhimman nasarori da dama.''