Mutumin da ke da ƙarfin faɗa da ke burge Trump

Firaministan Hungry Viktor Orban ya kasance mai ra'ayin sassauci a tsawon shekara 20, ya kawo sauyi kan tsarin da ya ke ganin na da sassauci wajen tafiyar da hakoki da tsari na dimokuradiyya.

Ya ja hankalin mutane duniya da ya kasance yana burgesu, ciki harda mataimakin shugaban Amurka, JD Vance da Firaministan Georgia, Irakli Kobakhidze. Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump, ya ce Orban akwai wayo sosai kuma mutum ne mai tsauri.

"Yana daya daga cikin mutanen da nake ganin girmansa, ina kiransa da mai jajircewa," a cewar Trump a Satumban 2024.

Kafin zaben ƙasar da ke tafe cikin watan Afrilun 2026, ƙungiyar masu rajin kare auren jinsu da dangoginsu na cikin mutanen da Orban ke son murƙushewa - jamiyyarsa da Fidesz tayi ƙoƙari haramta gangamin auren jinsi da suka shirya. Amma duk da hakan akwai mutane dubu 100 zuwa dubu 200 da suka fito a watan da ya gabata - ƙari kan mutane dubu 35 da aka gani a bara.

An ga yadda mutane da dama su ka yi cuncunrundo a Budapest domin taron bikin masu auren jinsi ɗaya, 'yancin faɗin albarkacin baki da 'yancin mu'amaloli, wanda aka haramta. To shin hakan na nufin ra'ayinsa na sassauci ke bada wannan dama?

A wasu lokutan, wannan tambaya ba daidai ba ne. Yanzu ƙarfin ikon Orban na fuskantar barazana, amma ba kamar yadda mutane ke tunani ba.

Babban kalubalen ba daga ra'ayin sassauci ba ne, matsala ce ta matsakaicin ra'ayin riƙau.

Muƙarrabin da ke shirin yaƙar Orban

Peter Magyar, mai shekara 44 wanda a baya ke cikin muƙaraban Orban, ya bada mamaki lokacin da ya fito fili cikin watan Fabarairun 2024 ya na nuna zai kalubalance shi.

Wannan ya biyo bayan badakalar da aka bankado wadda ta shafi yi wa wani mutum afuwan da aka samu da cin zarafin yara abin da ya kai ga shugaba Katalin Novak ya yi murabus.

Ministar shari'a, Judit Varga (tsohuwar matar Magyar) ta ajiye aikinta - kuma wannan badakala ta kasance nakasu mai girma ga Orban da manufofinsa.

An yi wata tattaunawa mai tsawo da Partizan, shafin youtube na farko da 'yan adawa suka kaddamar, ya soki abin da ya kira tsarin mulki na babakere da rashawa a jam'iyyar gwamnati mai mulki.

Robert Puzser, fitaccen mai sharhi wanda ke shugabanta wata sabuwar ƙungiya da ake kira 'Citizens Resistance', ya ce Magyar na nuna takatsan-tsan yayinda Fidesz da wasu rukunni na 'yan jarida ke ƙoƙari nuna shi a matsayin mai sassauci ra'ayi.

Magyar, na kokarin yin takatsan-tsan, musamman ganin cewa akwai alaƙa mai kyau tsakaninsa da Orban. Ya yi kokarin fito da shi cikin tsari mai karfi - na ƙasar da ya ke ganin na neman rushewa.

Salo da tsarin Orban

Orban ya shafe shekara 19 kan mulki cikin shekaru 35 ta rushewar tsarin kwaminisanci a 1990, hakan ya sa ya kasance ɗaya daga cikin fitattu mafiya kwarewa a shugabanci a Turai.

A farkon 1990, Fidesz ya fice daga tsatsansa, Orban kuma ya kaddamar da sabbin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da kinshin kasa da ra'ayin rikau.

A 2015, lokacin da dandazon mutane ke kwarara Turai domin neman mafaka, Orban ya bayyansau a matsayin wasu gungun mutane da ke neman kassara tattalin arzikin Turai.

Ba ya ga ra'ayin taimakon sojin da ake bai wa Ukraine tun soma mamayar Rasha a Fabarairun 2022, ya na adawa da yukurin Ukraine na neman zama mamba a Turai.

Akwai shaku da ake nunawa sosai, duk da cewa a shekarun 2010 da 2014 da 2018 da 2020 ya samu rinjaye.

Kuri'ar jin ra'ayi da cibiyar Publicus ta aiwatar ya nuna cewa tsakanin 23 zuwa 25 Yuni an gano cewa kashi 45 cikin 100 na 'yan ƙasar na goyon-bayan auren jinsi da aka gudanar cikin watan Maris a Budapest, sannan kashi 48 cikin 100 sun nuna adawarsu.

Kashi 8 cikin 100 na magoya-bayan Fidesz kuma na nuna goyon-baya.

Tun watan Maris, magoya-bayan Fidesz sun wallafa wasu hotuna daga gangamin Budapest, ciki harda na tsiraici da kuma tarin mazajen da 'yansanda suka kama suna lalata a tsakiyar titi.

'Yan Hungry miliyan 3.7 sun kada kuri'ar jin ra'ayi, kan fahimtar ra'ayin 'yan ƙasar kan gangamin auren jinsi da ma'anar hakan a ƙasarsu.

Ma su nasara a koda yaushe

Orban ya rasa karfinsa a 2002 kafin daga bisani a dawo mulki a 2010, sannan ya samu rinjayen da kujeru 386 a majalisa.

Duk da kalubalen da ya fuskanta daga 'yan adawa. Ya yi rinjaye da kashi 45 cikin 100 na kuri'u a zaben 2014, wanda ya bashi daman mamaye kujeru 67 cikin 100 na majalisa.

A 2014 ya ce manufofinsa ba su ci karo da 'yancin walwala ba... amma dai dole abubuwa su tafi cikin da'a da bin dokokin ƙasa.

Orban na kokarin ganin farin jininsa bai disashe ba. András Lánczi, mai sharhi da ake ganin na da tasiri sosai kan firaminista, ya na kiransa da surkullen siyasa.

Yadda ya shiga ran shugabannin duniya

Orban na da wasu tsaruka na burge shugabannin duniya. Akwai lokacin da Firaministan Slovakia da Georgia suka ce namijin kwarai ne wajen daidaita al'umma da tabbatar da tsari nagari.

Orban ya sa wa 'yan ƙasar farin ciki da kwarin-gwiwa, a mulkinsa na gwamman shekaru. Kasarsa ta kasance da karfinta, kuma yana nuna musu cewa babu wata ƙasa da za ta nuna musu gata.

Peter Magyar ya sha sukar ayyukan gwamnati da yanayin asibitoci da wasu manyan ayyukan gwamnati da ya ke ganin akwai gazawa idan aka kwatanta da Turai.

Ya ja hankalin dandazon al'umma, bayan ziyarar da ya rinka kai wa asibitoci, da makarantu da gidajen kula da tsofaffi. Ya rinka shiga tarukan kai-tsaye irin na Facebook, yanayin da ya rinka jan hankalin dubban magoya-bayansa.

"Zamu sake gina ƙasar tare, daki-daki," a cewa Magyar.

Jam'iyyar Fidesz ta yi watsi da kalamansa na ayyana kai a matsayin mai ceto, tana cewa ceto maciya amana ne.

Sai dai Magyar ya bai wa al'umma wata dama ta muhawara kan manufofinsa.

Orban ya rinka tafka wasu kura-kurai, kamar goyon-baya ga George Simon a zaben Romania, duk da tarihin alakar rashin jituwa da Hungary. A na ra'ayi yana ganinsa a matsayin wanda za su iya aiki tare wajen cimma manufofin Turai. Amma kuma sai Simon ya sha kayen ban mamaki a zagaye na biyu na wannan zabe.

Ban da wannan, tattalin arzikin Hungry, ya dogara ne kan kasuwar Jamus, musamman kamfanin moticin Jamus da ke Hungry, ya tsaya cak. Orban baya iya tafiyar da ƙasar da matakin da al'umma suka saba rayuwa.

Ko András Lánczi, wanda ke da yaƙinin Orban zai lashe zaɓe, ya ce: "Ya ce akwai wasu abubuwa da ba za a kau da kai a kansu ba, kuma suna iya zama barazana."

Yaƙin raya Hungary

Kada Orban, wanda ya mulki Hungry tsawon shekara 15, zai kasance abin tarihi.

"Orban na da salo na tattaro kawunan masu zabe na asali, wanda kusan sun kai miliyan biyu, amma wannan adadi bai ishe shi lashe zabe ba," a cewar Zoltan Kiszelly, mai sharhi kan lamuran siyasa kuma makusanci ga Fidesz.

Jam;iyyar Tisza yanzu na da magoya-baya sama da miliyan biyu. Sama da miliyan biyar na al'ummar Hungry ne suka yi zabe a 2022, kuma kashi 69 cikin 100 sun fito - don haka zaben Afrilun 2026 zai kasance wasu mutane kalilan ne za su yanke hukunci a kansa.

A 2022, lokacin da ake tsaka da yaƙin Ukraine, Orban ya nunawa duniya cewa shi mai son zaman lafiya ne, yana mai cewa 'yan adawa na kokarin jefa ƙasar cikin yaƙi. Salon na shi ya yi nasara a ƙasar da ke da tarihin sojojin ƙetare. A 2016, Ukraine na iya taimawa Orban wajen sake lashe zabe, a ra'ayin Mr Kiszelly.

Idan yaƙin Ukraine ya kawo karshen kafin wannan lokaci, Masu hasashe kan siyasar Orban na iya kafa tarihi yayinda shugabannin ƙasashen yamma ke gargaɗi cewa da wuya Ukraine ta iya galaba kan Rasha. Amma, idan yaƙin ya cigaba, Fidesz, na iya karfafa gangamin neman nasara kan Manfred Weber, shugaban jam'iyyar EPP ta Turai, wanda ke goyon-bayan taimakon sojin da Turai ke bai wa Ukraine.

Orban bai boye kyakyawar alaƙarsa da shugaban Rasha, Vladimir Putin ba kuma wannan ya bashi dama wajen samun gas da mai me sauki daga Rasha - da ke fuskantar takunkumin ƙasashen Turai.

Amma 'yan adawarsa na fatan Tisza da Magyar na iya cigaba da kasance a matsayin da suke kai. Mista Puzser, da masu fafutika daga bangaren adawa, na ganin Tisza nan gaba zai kafa tarihin nasara.