Shin ƙungiyar IS na sake samun ƙarfi ne?

Wani hari mafi muni da aka kai bakin ruwan Bondi a makon da ya gabata, ya janyo hankalin duniya komawa kan ƙungiyar ISIS bayan da firaministan Australiya ya ce waɗanda suka kai harin sun samu ƙwarin gwiwa ne da aƙidojin ƙungiyar.

Ƙungiyar ba ta ɗau alhakin kai harin ba wanda ya janyo mutuwar mutum 15. Sai dai, ƴansanda sun ce an gano "tutocin IS" haɗe da wasu abubuwan fashewa a cikin wata mota a wurin da lamarin ya faru.

An gano cewa wani mahaifi da ɗansa ne ake zargi da kai harin. Ƴansanda sun harbe mutumin sannan an zargi ɗansa da laifukan kisa har 15.

Harin na Sydney tuni ce cewa ISIS ba ta saduda ba wajen shiryawa ko kuma zaburar da mutane su kai hari kan ƙasashen yamma. Duk da cewa an dakile tasirinta sosai tun 2017 - shekarar da ta rasa muhimman sansanoninta a Siriya da Iraqi.

ISIS ta kuma yi shiru - duk da cewa masu goyon bayanta na yaɗa akidojinta kan intanet - kan wani hari a Siriya wanda ya lakume rayukan sojojin Amurka biyu da wani farar hula kwana guda kafin harin Bondi. Amurka ta ce wani jami'in IS ne ya kai harin da ya kashe mutanen a Siriya.

"Ba za mu yi magana kan dawowar abin da bai taɓa tafiya ba," a cewar Mina al-lami wata ƙwararriya kan masu iƙirarin jihadi da sashen BBC Monitoring.

Ta ja hankali kan alaƙanta hare-hare a matsayin ayyukan IS, inda ta yi gargaɗin cewa yin haka na saka a yaɗa farfagandar ƙungiyar maimakon yin duba kan abin da za ta iya aikatawa.

Shin har yanzu IS na da tasiri?

A lokacin da take kan ganiyarta, IS ta yi iko da yankuna da dama a Siriya da Iraqi, inda take bayyana kanta a matsayin ƙasa ta hanyar karɓar haraji, ilimi, saka tsare-tsaren addini da kuma kiwon lafiya.

Sai dai ta sha kaye matuka a 2019 a wajen ƙasashe sama da 70 karkashin jagorancin Amurka, abin da ya kawo kashen ikonta.

Al-Lami ta ce ƙarfin ƙungiyar ya ƙara raguwa bayan rasa wanda ya assasa ta, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, wand ya kashe kansa lokacin wani samame da Amurka ta kai a 2019. Tun wancan lokaci, babu wani shugabanta da aka sani a hukumance ko aka gani a bainar jama'a.

A yau IS na da mayaƙa sama da 3,000 a Siriya da Iraqi baki-ɗaya, a cewar kwamitin tsaro na Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya. Sai dai , a wani lokaci an ga dubun-dubatar mayaƙa daga ƙasashen waje sun yi ta tururuwar shiga ƙungiyar bayan da ta ayyana kafa gwamnatinta a 2014.

Al-Lami ta ce wata alama ta raguwar ƙarfin IS shi ne irin hare-hare da take kai wa. Ƙungiyar ta ɗauki alhakin kai manyan hare-hare a Siriya, Iraqi da kuma ƙasashen yamma a tsakiyar shekarun 2010.

"Yanzu ta dogara kan kai ƙananan hare-hare na sari ka-noke," in ji ta, sannan wasu hare-haren yamma wasu ne take zaburarwa suna yi amma ba ita ke yi da kanta ba.

A bara, reshen IS a Afghanistan - wanda aka fi sani da Khorasan Province (ISKP) - ya janyo hankali bayan da aka alaƙanta shi da hare-hare masu muni a Iran a watan Janairu, wanda ya lakume rayuka kusan 100, watanni biyu bayan haka a Rasha kuma, ta kashe aƙalla mutum 150. An kuma zarge ta da shirin son kai hare-hare Habasha, wanda duka aka daƙile.

Sai dai a wannan shekara, an durkusar da ISKP matuka kuma ta sha fuskantar matsaloli wajen kai hari ko da a cikin Afghanistan.

Yawan hare-haren da take kai wa da sunanta a yanzu na faruwa a yankin Sahara na Afirka. A cewar rahoto kan ta'addanci ta duniya na 2025, wanda cibiyar tattalin arziki da zaman lafiya ta wallafa, ya ce IS da ƙawayenta "har yanzu su ne ƙungiyoyin ta'addanci mafi haɗari a 2024, inda suke da alhakin mutuwar mutane aƙalla 1,805 a faɗin ƙasashe 22."

Al-Lami ta ƙara da cewa ta IS ta rasa ɗimbin karfin yaɗa farfagandar ta. "Suna da dabara ta yaɗa bidiyon farfaganda amma yanzu suna fuskantar kalubale wajen fitar irin waɗannan bidiyo."

Sai dai IS na ci gaba da ƙarfafa gwiwar kai hare-hare ta shafukanta na intanet.

Al-Lami ta ce ƙungiyar ta yi dabara wajen "samun masu goyon bayanta a kafafen sadarwa waɗanda matasa ne, da suka fahimci harkar sada zumunta, kuma hakan ya taimaka wajen cike giɓin da ƙungiyar ta rasa a farfagandarta."

Suna da tasiri sosai a kafafen sada zumunta kamar Facebook da Instagram a wani ƙoƙari na kai wa matasa.

IS na ƙara girma a Afirka da Asiya ne?

Bayan rasa goyon baya a inda tafi ƙarfi a baya a Gabas Ta Tsakiya, hakan na nufin dole ta koma wasu wurare domin samun goyon baya.

A kudancin Asiya, ana ɗaukar rassanta mai suna IS-Khorasan Province, ko ISKP a matsayin mafi haɗari.

MDD ta yi kiyasin cewa reshen wanda yake da zama a Afghanistan da kudancin Pakistan, yana da mayaƙa 2,000 kuma na ci gaba da ɗaukar sabbi daga ƙasashen tsakiyar Asiya kamar Tajikistan da Uzbekistan.

A ɗaya gefen, reshen ƙungiyar ta IS a Gabashin Asiya (ISEAP) - wanda ke kula da Gabashin Asiya kuma ya fi mayar da hankali a kudancin Philippines - ya sha ɗaukar alhakin munanan hare-hare da aka kai Philippines da Indonesiya.

Sai dai, wannan reshe, bai ɗauki alhakin wani hari ba a wannan shekara.

Ƙwararru sun ce IS ta fi mayar da hankali ne kan Afirka.

Adrian Shtuni, ƙwararre kan tsaro a Cibiyar Daƙile Ta'addanci da ke Netherlands, ya yi gargaɗin cewa " IS ta girma cikin sauri" a nahiyar a cikin shekaru kaɗan da suka wuce.

"Sun samu nasarar yin haka ne ta hanyar amfani da rashin tsaro da rashin shugabanci nagari a yankin, kamar yankin Sahel (yankin arewacin Afirka) da kuma yammacin Afirka, da kuma janye dakaru da ƙasashen yamma suka yi, rashin daidaito a yankin da kuma raguwar samun kuɗaɗen tallafi na daƙile ayyukan ta'addanci."

A cewar MDD, ƙungiyar ISWAP na da mayaƙa kusan 8,000 zuwa 12,000. Al-Lami ta ce tara cikin hare-hare goma da aka kai yankin a wannan shekara sun faru ne a yankin Sahara na Afirka.

Ta ce IS na da tasiri a yankin Sahel da Somaliya, inda take da ƙungiyoyin jihadi ƴan adawa na gaske kamar su rassan al-Qaeda. Sai dai, ta ce ƙungiyar na da ƙarfin gaske a Najeriya, Jamhuriyar Dimokraɗiyyar Kongo da kuma Mozambique.

A waɗannan ƙasashe, mayaƙa sun sha far wa al'ummomin Kirista da kuma shingayen sojoji. A Kongo, ta ce, ƙawayen IS sun yi ƙoƙarin tilastawa waɗanda ba Musulmi ba biyan haraji a yankunan da suka fi kai hare-hare.

"IS ta ce Kiristoci a Kongo na da zaɓi uku: Shiga Musulunci, biyan ƙungiyar haraji da aka fi sani da Jizya, ko kuma a kashe su. A yawancin lokuta mayaƙan ba sa ba su wannan zaɓuka. Kawai suna far wa ƙauyukansu tare da kashe su," ta ƙara da cewa.

Al-Lami ta ce an bar IS ta ci gaba da aikace-aikacenta da Afirka ba tare da wani bincike ba saboda rashin ƙarfin kafafen yaɗa labarai da za su ja hankalin duniya - wani abu da ƙungiyar ita ma ta yi ƙorafi a kai.

"A bara IS ta fusata. Ta faɗa cikin wani sako da ta fitar, 'Muna kashe duka waɗannan Kiristoci a Afirka, kuma kafafen yaɗa labaran yamma suna nuna wariyar launin fata. Ba su damu ba," ta faɗa.

Sai dai yayin da IS ke da tasiri a Afirka, al-Lami ta ce "ba ta kai kusa" na ƙarfin da taɓa samu a baya a Siriya da Iraqi.

"Babu wani wuri a Afirka da IS ke iko da yanki kamar yadda ta taɓa yi a Gabas Ta Tsakiya. Maimakon haka, ta dogara kan ɓuya da kuma hare-haren sari ka-noke."

Wane abu ne na gaba?

Dakta Renad Mansour, wani babban jami'i a Chattam House, cibiyar bincike kan manufofi da kuma kudure-kuduren gwamnatocin ƙasashe a duniya, ya yi imanin cewa IS ta rasa ikonta idan aka duba baya.

"Yawan al'ummar da suka yi rayuwa karkashin IS sun wahala," in ji shi, inda ya faɗa wa BBC cewa ko da a wuraren da mutane ke jin gwamnati na musguna musu, "babu goyon baya irin wadda ISIS ta saba samu."

Sai dai ya yi gargaɗin cewa, "akwai yiwuwar IS ta ƙara samun ƙarfi a yankunan da ake da ƙungiyoyin mayaƙa da dama da ke neman iko.

Ƙwararre kan sha'anin tsaro Adrian Shtuni ya ce babbar barazana ita ce yadda al'ummomin ƙasashen waje za su mayar da martani kan barazana daga IS. Ya yi gargaɗin cewa rashin "ɗaukar mataki" har sai an kai hare-hare ba zai yi aiki ba, abin da ya fi dacewa shi ne matsin lamba daga ƙasashe da dama.