Ubwo Uburusiya burashobora kurekura ikirwanisho ruhonyanganda c’ubumara muri Ukraine?

Iki ni ikibazo cagumye cibazwa kuva Perezida Vladimir Putin agomoreye igitero kuri Ukraine. Muri ino ntambara, Kremlin irashobora kurekura ikirwanisho ruhonyanganda c’ubumara?

Perezida Joe Biden ntabihakana.

Muri ino ndwi, uyu mukuru wa Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika yavuze ati: "Ndafise ubwoba ko Putin ashobora gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri bikoreshwa ku rubuga rw’intambara (armes nucléaires tactiques/tactical nuclear weapons)". Abona ko vy’ukuri ibi vyago biriho.

Nta wuzi nimba Perezida Biden asoma ikinyamakuru c’Uburusiya, Profile. Nimba agisoma, urashobora kwumva igituma afise ubwoba.

Mu ndwi iheze, Profile yasohoye inkuru y’umuhinga azwi cane muri poritike y’Uburusiya ijanye n’imigenderanire hamwe no kwivuna abansi, Sergei Karaganov.

Karaganov ni umukuru w’inama ishinzwe politike yo hanze n’igisirikare. Muri make, ari hafi cane y’abari ku butegetsi hano.

Wewe avuga uku. Mu ntumbero yo “gusambura ishaka ry’Uburengero”, Uburusiya “ni bugomba gukoresha gukangisha inguvu za nikleyeri nk’ingingo nyayo igabanya uburyo bugoye bwo gukoresha ibirwanisho vy’ubumara”.

"Umwansi ategerezwa kumenya ko twiteguye kumwitanga mu kwihora ibikorwa vyose vy’agasotoro, vyaba ivyo muri kahise canke vy’ubu, kugira ngo isi ntihave yisanga mu ntambara ya nikleyeri.

"None vyogenda gute mu gihe batoheba? Iki gihe, vyoba ngombwa ko dutera ibibanza bitari bike mu bihugu bitari bike kugira ngo dusubize ku murongo abo bose bataye umutwe".

Kuva umwaka uheze, twakunze kwumva iterabwoba rya Moscou ko ishobora gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri.

Ni mu gihe kandi Perezida Putin yemeza ko Uburusiya bwamaze gushikana igice ca mbere c’ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri muri Biélorussie/Belarus, ingingo uyu mutegetsi w’Uburusiya avuga ko ari iyo kwibutsa uwo ari we wese “yibaza ko afise amayeri yo kudutsinda”.

Ariko none havugwa iki ku karusho ko gukoresha ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy’ubumara ku bihugu vy’Uburengero? Uru ni urundi rugero rushasha.

Ikigaragara ni uko atari bose mu Burusiya bashigikiye iki ciyumviro.

Ikinyamakuru gitangaza amakuru ajanye n’ubutunzi casohotse ejo Kommersant kirimwo inkuru ifise umutwe uvuga ngo "Intambara ya nikleyeri ni inzira mbi yo gukemura ibibazo”.

Kumbure aka ni agasuzuguro k’ibihe vyose. Ariko igishimishije muri ino nkuru ni uko yerekana ko impari ziri mu Burusiya ku vyerekeye igihe canke nimba ari ngombwa gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri mu ntambara muri Ukraine zamaze kuba ikibazo c’igihugu cose. Kandi abagikinisha ntibagifise mu minwe.

Iyi nkuru ya Kommersant – ikaba yanditswe n’umurwi w’abandi bahinga ba Moscou mu bijanye n’imigenderanire no kwivuna abansi – isigura igituma babona ko Sergei Karaganov yihenze. Yarihenze bibi cane.

"Iciyumviro c’uko ikoreshwa ry’ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri rishobora guhagarika ubukana bw’intambara rikanashika ku vyananiwe no gushikwako hakoreshejwe ibirwanisho bisanzwe kirateye amakenga menshi, kandi biboneka ko ari ukwihenda”, niko Alexei Arbatov, Konstantin Bogdanov na Dmitry Stefanovich bo mu kigo Centre for International Security cegukira ikigo c’Uburusiya, Russian Academy of Science, bavuga.

"Mu gihe ca none, hari uburorero bwinshi bw’ibikorwa vya gisirikare vyagiye bigira ingaruka mbi zitari zitezwe. Ariko muri ibi bikorwa, nta birwanisho vya nikleyeri vyakoreshejwe. Igitero ca nikleyeri kimwe gishobora guteza intambara yo ku rwego rushasha rutari rwitezwe kandi kigatuma haba ingorane z’amatati y’igihe kitari gito”.

"Ubumara bwoterwa n’ibi birwanisho vya nikleyeri bwotuma kazoza kagira umushinge mubi utari bwigere ubaho. Abashigikiye ibi batabanje kuzungurutsa ubwenge barakwiye kwibuka iki kintu”.

Ibi bidushikana ku kindi kibazo twagumye twibaza kuva Uburusiya butanguye intambara kuri Ukraine: none hariko haba ibiki kw’isi?

Birashoboka ko iciyumviro ca Karaganov c’uko hoba igitero ca nikleyeri co gukinga cababaje abatari bake ku buryo incabwenge z’Uburusiya zitari kubandanya zinumye.

Nimba ariko bimeze, birerekana ko n’aho urubuga rw’ibimenyeshamakuru mu Burusiya rugenzurwa cane na reta, n’ubwo bitoroshe, haracari akaryo ku mbuga zimwe zimwe ko kugira ico bashikirije ku bibazo bimwe bimwe. Cane cane ku bibazo nkoramutima, nk’icerekeye intambara ya nikleyeri.

Canke naho kumbure nta wuzi ko izi mpari zitoba zifise intumbero yo gusamaza Uburengero, canke yo kwerekana ko Putin ari intore, Karaganov na we akaba mubi.

Ariko n’ubwo bimeze uku, Perezida Putin we nyene ubwiwe ntarasaba ko hoba igitero ca nikleyeri ku Burengero.

Rero – nk’uko bamwe n’abandi babibona – ni vyiza ko bicarana na we bakumvikana imbere y’uko intagondwa Karaganovites atsinda urugamba, umusi umwe agafyonda ku rufunguruzo rwa nikleyeri.

Hari ikintu kimwe kigaragara: mu gihe amajambo yo kurwanya Uburengero abandanya yiyongera mu Burusiya, kandi igitero ca Ukraine co kwikura umwansi kw’izosi kikaba kibandanya, ikibazo ca nikleyeri ntaho kiraja.