Shin ko yaƙin Rasha a Ukraine na tafiya kamar yadda take so?

A tsakiyar watan Mayu Russia ta kai hari Ukraine daga arewa maso gabashi, inda dakarunta suka shammaci yankin Kharkiv har ma suka kama wasu yankunan da Rashar ta mamaye a farkon yaƙin amma daga bisani ta sake su.

Wasu masana sun bayyana yanayin da yaƙi "a lokacin da duniya ke barci."

An fafata a zagayen garin Vovchansk mai nisan kilomita biyar daga iyakar Rasha da Ukraine.

Hasashen abun da ka iya faruwa a nan gaba na da tayar da hankali ga Ukraine: Alamu na nuna Rasha na kan bakarta ta ci gaba har wataƙila ta kame birnin Khirkiv, birnin mafi girma na biya na Ukraine mai yawan jama'a miliyan 1.4.

Ukraine na ƙamfar makamai, sannan taimako ta fuskar soji daga ƙasashen yammaci na ɗaukar dogon lokaci bayan kwashe watanni domin yanke shawara.

Alama na nuna Rasha ta gane kurakuran da ta tafka na baya saboda haka matakan gaba da za ta dauka dangane da yaƙin ka iya zama mamaya a zamanin bazara.

Jack Watling mai sharhi kan harkokin soji na cibiyar UK Royal United Services Centre ya ce burin mamayar ba zai tsaya ga arewa maso gabashin Ukraine ba, za a faɗaɗa shi zuw ayankin "Donbas" da ke gabashin Ukraine, wanda tuni da ma wani ɓangare na yankin ke ƙarƙarshin ikon Rasha tun 2014.

Ko Rasha ta yi nasara a mamayar da ta yi a baya-bayan nan?

Kusan watanni biyu kenan dakarun rasha na ƙara kutsawa cikin yankunan da suke yaƙa to amma sun gaza karɓe cikakken iko da garuruwan yankin Vovchansk da Chasiv Yar. Dukkannin yankunan sun fuskanci munanan faɗace-faɗace a makonni shida da suka gabata.

Mamaye garuruwan da iko da su zai bai wa Rasha babbar damar katse shigar makamai da abinci ga sojojin Ukraine sannan dakarun Rasha za su samu damar ci gaba da mamayar ƙarin wasu yankuna.

Babban dalilin kasa ci gaba da kutsawa shi ne, a hannu ɗaya, gazawar Rasha wajen kai dakarun ko-ta-kwana a wuraren da suka dace a kuma lokacin da ya dace domin tabbatar da muradinta na yaƙi.

A ɗaya hannun kuma, sabon tallafin kayan yaƙin soji daga yammaci ya fara shiga Ukraine wani abu da ya ƙara mata kwarin gwiwar tsare gidanta.

To sai dai a daidai lokacin da hare-haren da Rasha ke kai wa suka ɗan samu tsaiko su kuma dakarun Ukraine suka samu zarafin yin jan daga, hakan ba yana nufin Rasha ba ta samun nasara a yaƙin ba. Abubuwa guda biyu sun shafi yadda al'amuran ke tafiya.

Dalili na ɗaya: Bama-bamai masu tafiyar shanshani

Ɗaya daga cikin dalilan shi ne amfani da bama-bamai masu tafiyar shanshani waɗanda su ne ɗaya daga cikin hanyoyin da Rasha ke yaƙi da su har ya zuwa yanzu.

Hukumomin Ukraine sun ce hukumomin sufurin sama na Rasha suna ta jefa bama-bamai da yawansu ya kai 100 a kowace rana a ƴan makonnin nan.

Bama-bamai masu tafiyar shanshani kan faɗa ƙasa sakaka kuma mafi yawancinsu tun lokacin tarayyar Soviet ne da aka yi amfani da su a yaƙin duniya na biyu.

To sai dai an zamanantar da su ta hanyar amfani da manhajar gano wuri ta GPS - wani abu da ke ba su damar jefa bam ɗin wurin da aka nufa. Jiragen yaƙin Rasha dai sun sha sakin irin bama-baman a lokacin da suke shawagi a sararin samaniyyar Rashar.

Abu ne mai matuƙar wuya wata garkuwa ta iya tare bama-baman masu tafiyar jirgi waɗanda suke sakin zafi a hankali, kamar yadda ake iya harbo makamai masu linzami da jirage marasa matuƙa.

Shugaban Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky ya yi ƙarin haske kan wannan batu a wata tattaunawa da aka yi da shi ta baya-bayan nan da wata jaridar Amurka.

Domin kange jiragen yaƙin Rasha da jefa irin waɗannan bama-bamai masu tafiyar jirgin sama, Ukraine ta nemi izinin yammaci wajen yin amfani da na'urorin ƙasashen waje domin kai hare-hare zuwa cikin yankunan Rasha, ta hanyar harar jiragen yaƙinta.

Mykola Bieleskov, wani mai sharhi ya ce kai hari kan sansanin dakarun sama na Rasha ita ce kawai mafita wajen dakile "ƙarfin bama-baman masu tafiyar jirgi sama."

Dalili na biyu: Hare-haren Rasha

Tasgaron da Ukraine ta samu a fagen yaƙi da kuma ci gaba da kai hare-haren da Rasha ke yi kan tashoshin wutar lantarki na Ukraine sun tilasta wa Amurka sauya tunaninta dangane da amfani da makaman da za su tallafa wa Ukraine din wajen yaƙar Rasha.

Da farko dai Ukraine ta samu izinin ƙaddamar da makaman da Amurka ta ba ta kan sansanonin sojin Rasha da ke kusa da yankin Khirkiv.

A ƙarshe-ƙarshen watan Yuni, mai ba da shawara kan harkar tsaro na Amurka, Jake Sullivan ya ce yarjejeniya da Ukraine kan amfani da makaman da Amurka ta ba ta kan Rasha ta faɗaɗa "duk inda dakarun Rasha suka fito daga kan iyakar Rashar da Ukraine a yunƙurin mamaye yankunan Ukraine ɗin."

Wannan izinin bai samu ba kai tsaye saboda wasu da dama a Amurka da sauran sassan yammacin turai na shakkar yin gaba da gaba da Rasha. Kremlin ta faɗi a baya cewa ƙyale Ukraine ta yi amfani da makaman Amurka a kan Rasha na nuni da hannun "Amurkar tsumu-tsumu a yaƙin".

Har yaushe za a ci gaba da yaƙin?

Duk da cewa har yanzu yakin da Rashar ke yi bai samar mata da wani babban cigaba ba ta fuskar mamaya har zuwa yanzu, an kasa fahimtar halin da ake ciki.

Sojojin Rasha sun fi na Ukraine yawa sosai. Wani babban janar a sojin Ukraine ya ce a wasu wuraren sojojin Rasha sun ninka na Ukraine sau 10. Harwayau, Rasha na ci gaba da rasa sojoji.

Wani binciken da sashen BBC na Rashanci ke yi kan yawan sojojin da ta yi asara na nuni da ƙarin asarar da aka yi a ƴan makonnin da suka gabata, abin da ke nuna abun da ya faru a hare-haren baya-bayan nan.

Abubuwa da dama ba sa tafiya kamar yadda aka tsara tun bayan fara yaƙin a watan Fabrairun 2022, to sai dai muradin Rasha na bujere wa duk wani goyon bayan yammaci ga Ukraine na kara ƙarfi.

Tsohon shugaban Rasha kuma tsohon firaiminista, Dmitry Medvedev ya rabuta cewa bayan majalisar dokokin Amurka ta amince da sabon kunshin tallafi ga Ukraine: "Za mu yi nasara, duk da tallafin dala biliyan 61. Karfi da gaskiya na ɓangarenmu."

Da yake magana dangane da tsawon lokacin da yaƙin zai ɗauka, Francis Dearnley wanda edita ne a jaridar Telegraph, jarida maif girma a Birtaniya wadda mai gabatarwarta ya yi bayani a wani shiri cewa "Yammaci da Amurka na mayar da martani ne maimamakon yin kandagarki - Zalensky babban abokin ƙawancen Amurka - da suka ba da izinin amfani da makamai domin ci gaba da yaƙi amma ba domin nasara ba."

"Takaicin wannan yaƙi, wanda ya fi muni a turai tun yaƙin duniya na II, ya ɗaɗe fiye da yadda aka yi tsammani."