Mece ce makomar jagoran addinin Iran?

Jagoran addinin Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - wanda ke ɓoye a wani wuri na sirri - a ƴan kwanakinnan yana cike da sanin cewa ana sanya idanu a kansa, fiye da lokutan da suka gabata a baya.

A lokacin da yake tattauna abin da Amurka za ta iya yi domin taimaka wa masu zanga-zanga a Iran, Shugaba Trump ya ayyana sunayen Qassem Soleimani da Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Wani tsahon babban jami'in sojin Iran, kuma muhimman ƙusa a Gabas ta Tsakiya da aka kashe bisa umarnin shugaban ƙasa a ranar 3 ga watan Janairun 2020, a wani harin jirgi maras matuƙi a wajen babban filin jirgin saman Badagaza.

Shi kuwa Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - wanda shi ne jagoran ƙungiyar IS - kashe kansa ya yi tare da wasu y aƴansu biyu a lokacin da ya tayar da abin fashewar da ke hannunsa a ranar 27 ga watan Oktoban 2019, a lokacin da sojojin Amurka suka kai samame maɓoyarsa da ke arewacin Siriya, bisa amincewar shugaban ƙasa.

Amma shi Ayatollah Khamenei ka iya la'akari da yadda shugaban Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, ya gamu da ajalisa.

An kashe Nasrallah ranar 27 ga watan Satumban 2024 a wani hari ta sama da sojojin Isra'ila suka kai maɓoyarsa da ke ƙarƙashin ƙasa mai zurfin ƙafa 60, a ƙasan wani gida da ke birnin Beirut, inda yake ganawa da manyan kwamandojinsa.

Kama Shugaba Nicholas Maduro na Venezuela da sojojin Amurka suka yi a baya-bayan nan a Caracas, babban birnin ƙasar, ka iya zama izina ga Ayatollah.

To sai dai babu tabbas kan tasirin da kawar da jagoran addinin Iran ɗin zai yi wa zanga-zangar da ake ci gaba da yi a Iran, da ma makomar Jamhuriyar musuluncin idan har aka cire shi daga mulkin ƙasar.

A yanzu Shugaba Trump na nazarin game zaɓin matakin da zai iya ɗauka a Iran.

Ko me jagoran addinin ke ciki shi da gwamnatinsa?

Mutumin da Iraniyawa ke ƙi

Ayatollah Khamenei, mai shekara 86 ya kasance mutum na baya-bayan nan wasu Iraniya ke ƙi.

An ɗauki masu zanga-zanga a ƙasar na ta kiraye-kirayen kawar da gwamnatinsa.

Ya kasance shugaban da ake yawan zargi da zalunci a ƙasar, yayin da ake zargin gwamnatinsa da kasancewa cikin mafiya tauye haƙƙi a duniya.

A shekara 36 da gwamnatinsa ta ɗauka tana mulki da sunan musulunci, ya riƙa zartar da ƙudurorin da suka saɓa wa Amurka da ƙasashen Yamma, yayin da yake dogara da Rasha da China don tafiyar da al'umara.

Ya riƙa aiwatar da ƙudurorin makamashin nukiliya a ƙasar, wani abu da ya sa ƙasar zama ta biyu da ke fuskantar takunkumai a duniya bayan Rasha, lamarin da ya sa ƙasar zama cikin talauci da faɗin tashi.

Ƙoƙarinsa na samun ƙarfi a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya ya jefa yankin cikin tashin hankali.

Kiraye-kirayensa na kawar da Isra'ila ya sa Isra'ila cikin yaƙi a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya.

Bayan ɓarkewar zanga-zangar baya-bayan nan, Ayatollah Khamenei ya bai wa jami'an tsaron ƙasar damar yi wa masu zanga-zangar kisan kiyashi.

Katse intanet da aka yi a ƙasar ya sa an kasa tantance yawan kashe-kashen da ak yi, amma bayanai na cewa jami'an tsaro sun kashe dubban masu zanga-zanga ba iya garuruwa da birane ba, har ma da ƙauyuka, wani abu da ke nuna girman zanga-zangar.

Cire shi, ta hanyar hare-hare ko kamu, zai haifar da sauyin gwamnati a ƙasar, tare da buɗe hanyar samar da sauye-sauye a tsare-tsare da manufofin gwamnatin ƙasar.

Kawo yanzu babu tabbas kan wanda zai gaje shi. Tashin hankali da rikici ka iya biyo baya.

To amma akwai yiwuwar dakarun juyin juya hali ka iya cike gurbinsa ta hanyar kafa gwamnatin mulkin soji.

Wasu daga cikin jagororin gwamnatin za su yi maraba da cire Ayatollah Khamenei daga mulki, a cewar Arash Azizi, malami a Jami'ar Yale, wanda ya rubuta littafin ''What Iranians Want''.

"A shirye - wasu manyan ƙusoshin gwamnatin - suke don samar da sauye-sauye, tare da yin watsi da Khamenei. Kuma suna son yi wasu manyan sauye-sauye tare da watsar da wasu manufofin gwamnatin Jamhuriyar Musuluncin''.

"Don haka za su yi maraba da hare-haren Amurka a matsayin damar samun ci gaba."

'Akwai masu mulki da waɗanda ake mulka'

Kakakin majalisar dokokin Iran na yanzu, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, mai shekara 64, mamba ne a rundunar dakarun juyin juya halin mai rajin mulkin kama karya. Ya ajiye kakinsa ya riƙa sanya na farar hula. Ya yi fice wajen goyon bayan gwamnatin.

Amma duk da haka Ayatollah Khamenei bai taɓa amincewa da shi ɗari bisa ɗari ba. Masu tafiyar da gwamnatin na zarginsa da kasancewa kura da fatar akuya wanda ke jiran dama.

Akwai kuma yiwuwar wasu daga cikin gwamnatin masu matsakaicin ra'ayi za su karɓe mulkin ƙasar.

Tsohon shugaban ƙasar, Hassan Rouhani na daga cikin waɗanda ake kallo a haka. Ya jima yana kafa kansa a matsayin ɗan takarar shugaban ƙasa mai matsakaicin ra'ayi da ke son kawo sauyi a lokacin da tsohon shugaban ƙasar ya rasu.

Kuma masana na kallon masu son kawo sauyin a matsayin masu muhimmanci.

To amma mutumin da mafi yawan mutane ke ambata a garuruwa da biranen Iran shi ne ɗan gidan tsohon sarkin Iran, Yarima mai jiran gado Reza Pahlavi, mai shekara 65 da ke zaman gudun hijira a Amurka.

A shekarun baya-bayan nan, Reza Pahlavi ya ƙarfafa kansa a cikin Iran, inda da dama ke kallon lokacin gwamnatin Shah musamman shekarun 1970 a matsayin mafiya jin daɗi a ƙasar.

Lokaci ne da Iran ke cikin ƙasashen da ake da ci gaba, lokacin da ba a maganar siyasa.

Sai dai ana ganin Reza Pahlavi ba zai iya haɗa kan ƙasar ba. Hasalima wasu na kallonsa a matsayin wanda zai assasa rabuwar kai a ƙasar.

Gaza iya haɗa kan Iraniyawan da ke ƙasashen waje ƙarƙashin inuwa guda, maimakon haka ya zaɓi ya yi gwargwarmayar shi kaɗai, yana mai ikirarin cewa ƙasar na bayansa.

Koda shi kaɗai ne jagoran, Iraniyawa za su riƙa guna-guni a cikin ƙasar, wasu na ganin kamar ba zai iya ba, saboda babu wata ƙungiya koda ɗaya a Iran da ke shirya karɓar masa mulki.

To sai dai zanga-zangar baya-bayan nan ta fara sauya wannan tunani, saboda an ji yadda masu zanga-zangar ke ta ambaton sunansa a matsayin wanda kawai zai iya ƙarɓar mulki daga wannan gwamnati.

To amma kasancewar yana samun isasshen lokaci a maɓoyarsa da ke ƙarƙashin ƙasa, Ayatollah Khamenei ka iya narzartar abubuwan da suka faru tsawon mako uku da suka gabata da kuma halin da ake ciki.

Zai iya gamsuwa cewa gwamnatinsa na yi masa biyayya sau da ƙafa.

Babu alamun turjiya ko rashin saɓani a rundunar juyin juya halin ƙasar, wadda aka kafa domin bai wa gwamnatin kariya.

Sai dai kalaman Trump sun nuna cewa Amurka za ta iya kai hare-hare kan sansanonin dakarun juyin-juya halin da sauran jami'an tsaron ƙasar, tare da karya rundunonin, wani abu da zai bai wa masu zanga-zangar damar ci gaba da fitowa har ma su ƙaru don hamɓarar da gwamnatin.

Ya nuna cewa masu zanga-zangar su ci gaba da magana, sannan su mamaye gine-ginen gwamnati. ''taimako na kan hanya'', in ji shi.

Tasirin zanga-zanga a Iran

Cikin shekara 16 da suka gabata, Iranaiyawa sun riƙa fitowa suna zanga-zangar adawa da gwamnatin Ayatollah Khamenei.

Ta ƙarshe da aka yi a ƙasar ita ce ta 2022 bayan mutuwar wata matashiya a ƙasar, Mahsa Amini, a hannun jami'an tsaro saboda rashin sanya hijabi yadda ya kamata.

Mutuwarta ya janyo ɓarkewar zanga-zangar ''ƴanci, rayuwa, mata,'' wanda aka ɗauki lokaci ana yi, inda jami'an tsaro suka riƙa kashe masu zang-zangar.

An fara zanga-zangar baya-bayan nan ne saboda matsin tattalin arziki da tsadar biredi.

Ƴan kasuwa sun dakatar da harkokinsu saboda karyewar darajar kuɗin ƙasar, riyal.

Ƴan ƙasar da dama ba sa samun abin da za su ci. Talauci ya bazu a ƙasar, saboda yawan takunkuman da aka sanya mata, da rashin iya mulki da ake zargin jagororin ƙasar.

Haka kuma Iran na fuskantar ƙarancin ruwan sha da lantarki da iskar gas, duk kuwa da kasancewarta ta biyu da ta fi albarkar gas da ba a tono ba a duniya.

Jagoran Addinin ya yarda cewa ƴankasuwar da suka fara zanga-zangar a ƙarshen watan da ya gabata, na da babban dalilin yinta.

Ayatollah ya ce gwamnati na bakin ƙoƙarinta wajen magance matsalar. To amma ya ce maƙiya ne suka assasata.