Kasuwanci, agaji, tsaro: Me nasarar Trump ke nufi ga nahiyar Afirka?

A yanzu da Donald Trump ya lashe zaɓen shugaban ƙasar Amurka a karo na biyu, shugabannin ƙasashen Afirka sun fara taya sabon shugaban ƙasar murna.

"Zimbabwe a shirye take ta yi aiki da kai," kamar yadda shugaban ƙasar Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa ya rubuta, inda yake nuni ga alaƙar diflomasiyya tsakanin ƙasashen biyu, shi kuma shugaban Najeriya Bola Tinubu ya ce dawowar Trump zai zo "ɗimbin alheri a ɓangaren alaƙar tattalin arziki da cigaba tsakanin Afirka da Amurka."

Amma shin komen Trump a mulkin Amurka zai amfani Afirka? a zangon mulkinsa na farko, an soke shi da watsi da Afirka, da yanke wasu kuɗaɗen agaji da tsuke shigi da ficen baƙin haure, da kuma zarginsa da kiran wasu ƙasashen nahiyar da "kwatami."

Sai dai duk da haka ya ƙirƙiri wasu tsare-tsaren ƙara alaƙar kasuwanci a Afirka - wasu ma sun ci gaba da aiki shekara uku bayan ya bar ofis.

Amma shin ta yaya zai fuskanci alaƙa da Afirka a wannan zangon mulkin?

Kasuwanci da zuba jari

GwamnatinJoe Biden da ke ƙarƙarewa "ta yi ƙoƙari matuƙa domin nuna cewa Afirka na da daraja," in ji W Gyude Moore, wani masani a cibiyar Center for Global Development kuma tsohon minista a ƙasar Laberiya a zantawarsa da BBC.

Biden ya gaza wajen bayyana wannan a zahiri ta hanyar shiga wasu yarjejeniya da ƙasashen nahiyar, amma duk da haka Moore ya ce ba za a ce alaƙarsa da Afirka ta tashi a banza ba.

Misali, an yaba wa Amurka da zuba jari a layin dogon da ya tashi daga Angola ya ratsa ta DR Congo da Zambia, wanda za a riƙa amfani da shi wajen safarar kayayyakin masana'antu.

A shekarar 2023, Amurka ta ce ta zuba jarin sama da $22bn tun daga hawan Biden mulki.

Sai dai ana tunanin Trump zai iya janye wasu daga cikin waɗannan zuba jarin. Zaɓaɓɓen shugaban ƙasar mutum ne wanda ya fi fifita komai na cikin gida, inda taken zangon mulkinsa na farko ya kasance, "Amurka farko."

Yarjejeniyar African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), wadda ta ba ƙasashen Afirka da suka cika sharaɗi damar shigar da kayayyakinsu zuwa Amurka ba tare da biyan haraji da aka yi tun a 2000 na cikin abubuwan da suke fuskantar barazana.

A zamanin mulkinsa na farko, Trump ya ce idan yarjejeniyar ta ƙare a shekarar 2025, ba za a sabunta ta ba.

Sannan a yaƙin zaɓensa na 2024, ya yi alƙawarin ƙaƙaba harajin kashi 10 a kan dukkan kayayyakin da aka shigo da su daga ƙasashen waje. Hakan zai sa kayayyakin da ake shigo da su su ƙara tsada.

Masu sharhi da dama a Afirka ta Kudu - ɗaya daga cikin ƙasar da ta fi cin moriyar yarjejeniyar Agoa - sun ce dakatar da yarjejeniyar zai matuƙar shafi tattalin arzikin ƙasar.

Sai da cibiyar Brookings Institution ta Amurka ta yi hasashen cewa Tattalin arzikin ƙasa na cikin gida a Afirka ta Kudu zai ragu da kashi 0.06, wanda ba zai rasa nasaba da kasancewar da yawa daga cikin kayayyakin da ake fitarwa daga Afirka ta Kudu zuwa Amurka ba sa cikin yarjejeniyar ta Agoa.

Duk da cewa Trump bai damu da yarjejeniyar Agoa ba, amma ya aminta cewa idan har Amurka na so ta rage yadda China ke ƙara ƙarfi a harkokin tattalin arzikin Afirka, dole ta ci gaba da wasu alaƙar da ke tsakaninta da nahiyar.

A shekarar 2018, gwamnatin Trump ta bayyana shirin Prosper Afrrica - shirin da ke taimakon kamfanonin Amurka da suke so su zuba jari a Afirka da Development Finance Corporation (DFC), wanda ke tallafa wa ayyukan cigaba da ake yi a Afirka da sauran sassan duniya. Biden ya ci gaba da shirye-shiryen bayan ya hau mulki, kuma zuwa yanzu, shirin DFC ya ce ya zuba jarin sama da $10bn (£8bn) a Afirka.

Agaji

Afirka na samun mafi yawan agajinta ne daga Amurka, wadda ta ce ta tallafa wa nahiyar da sama da $3.7bn a bana.

Amma zangon mulkin Trump na farko ya sha nanata ƙudurin rage kuɗaɗen agajin da suke yi a ƙasashen waje. Sai dai majalisar ƙasar a wancan lokacin (wadda a wancan lokacin ba shi da rinjaye) ta yi watsi da buƙatarsa a wancan lokacin.

Haka akwai fargabar Trump zai dakatar da shirin Pepfar, shirin da ke taimakon nahiyar Afirka wajen yaƙi da cutar HIV.

A bara, wani ɗan majalisa, ɗan jam'iyyar Republican ya caccaki shirin Pepfar, inda ya yi zargin cewa shirin na goyon bayan zubar da ciki. Sai aka ɗan tsawaita shirin zuwa watan Maris na bana, amma Trump - wanda aka san shi da yaƙi da zubar da ciki - zai iya dakatar da shirin a yanzu.

Harkokin cirani

Yadda Trump yake kallon ƴan cirani ba bisa ƙa'ida a bayyane yake - a lokacin da yake yaƙin zaɓensa na wannan zaɓen ya yi alkawarin yin koro da ba a taɓa gani ba a tarihhin Amurka.

Wannan na barazana ga Afirka, kasancewar tun a 2022, kusan ƴan ci-rani 13,000 ne aka samu a iyakar Amurka da Mexico, kamar yadda hukumar kwastam ta Amurka ta bayyana. A shekarar 2023, adadin ya ƙaru zuwa 58,000.

Ko a zangon mulkinsa na farko, Trump ya fito da wasu tsare-tsaren yaƙi da kwararowar baƙin haure daga ƙasashen Afirka, ciki har da Najeriya da Eritrea da Sudan da Tanzania.

Wata kafar watsa labarai ta Taifo Leo a Kenya ta ruwaito cewa ƴan ci-rani daga ƙasar, waɗanda suka kusa 160,000 suna cikin fargabar fuskantar wariya a ƙarƙashin mulkin Trump.

Tsaro da rikice-rikice

A lokacin da Trump ba ya kan karagar mulki, Rasha ta ƙara kutsawa cikin nahiyar Afirka.

Ɗaya daga cikin hanyoyin da take bi shi ne taimakawa ƙasashen da suke fama da yaƙi da ƙungiyoyin jihadi irin su Mali da Nijar da Burkina Faso da makamai da sojoji.

Kutsawar Rasha Afirka ya jawo hankalin Amurka - ƙasashen biyu daɗaɗdun ƴan adawa ne.

Shin Trump zai ba ƙasashen Afirka tallafi domin rage ƙarfin Rasha?

Akwai raɗe-raɗin cewa Trump yana da alaƙa mai kyau da shugaban ƙasar Rasha Vladimir Putin.

Amma a baya, Trump ya taɓa taimakon Najeriya a yaƙi da Boko Haram, ƙungiyar da ta addabi ƙasar na sama da shekara 15 da suka gabata.

Akwai kuma batun yaƙin basasar Sudan, wanda yanzu ya kwashe sama da wata 18, kuma ya kashe dubban mutane.

"Ina tunanin gwamnatin Trump ba za ta damu da abin da ke faruwa a Sudan ba, kamar yadda gwamnatin Biden ta yi," in ji Mr Moore.

Amma dai ko ma mene ne, babu yadda za a tabbatar da yaya Trump zai gudanar da mulkinsa bayan ya shiga ofis.