Ukraine - Russia: Iran igiye gushobora kugurisha ibirwanisho hanze ata nkomanzi, bizogenda gute kuri iyi ntambara?

Moscou na Tehran zishobora kugiriranira amasezerano yo kugura no kugurisha za ndege zitagira abadereva (amadrone) be na misire inyuma y’aho ibihano Irani yafatiwe n’Inama nkuru ya ONU ijejwe umutekano kw’isi ku bijanye no kutagurisha ubuhinga bwayo bwa misire bizoba birangiye.

Inyuma y’uwa 18 Gitugutu (10), Tehran (umugwa mukuru wa Irani) izoba ifise uburenganzira bwo kugurisha hanze ibirwanisho vya misire hamwe n’ubuhinga bwavyo, amakungu atayigenzura. Ibi bisigura ko Uburusiya bushobora kwakira izi misire zivuye muri Irani.

Kuva mu mwaka uheze 2022, niho hatanguye impungenge z’uko Irani ishobora gutangura kugurisha mu Burusiya ibisasu vya misire biraswa ku ntera ngufi hamwe n’ibikoreshwa ku rubuga rw’intambara. Izi mpungenge zavuye ku bucuti mu vya gisirikare bwiyongereye hagati ya Irani n’Uburusiya – cane cane ku kungene Tehran irungikira Moscou (umugwa mukuru w’Uburusiya) amadrone y’intambara n’ayo mu bikorwa vya maneko.

Ibi bisasu vya misire bishobora kuguruka gushika ku birometero 500 canke 1000.

Ku wa 16 Gitugutu (10), ikinyamakuru Washington Post, gisubiramwo ivyavuzwe n’abakozi bo mu gisata c’igendereza co mu gihugu c’incuti ya Amerika, bavuga ko Irani yari igiye kurungikira Uburusiya ibisasu vya misire vyo mu bwoko bwa Fateh-110 biguruka gushika ku birometero 300 hamwe n’ivyo mu bwoko bwa Zolfaghar biguruka gushika ku birometero 700.

Mu nyuma hakurikiye ubundi butumwa ariko nta makuru yashoboye gushirwa ahabona ko ibi birwanisho vyarungitswe.

Irungikwa ry’ibi birwanisho ryari gushobora gutuma ibintu bimera nabi muri Ukraine kuko muri Gitugutu 2022 ntiyari bwaronke ubuhinga bwa none butangwa n’ibihugu vy’Uburengero bwo kwivuna neza ibi bisasu vya misire biraswa kure.

Ariko n’aho igisirikare ca Ukraine coronswa ubu buhinga, mu gihe Uburusiya bwobandanya buronka ibi bisasu vya misire, coguma ari ikibazo ngorabahizi – ntibishoboka ko igihugu cose kinini nk’iki gikingirwa ibitero vya misire kandi ibibanza bishobora guterwa ni vyinshi.

Ntibisigura ko kuba bigaragara ko Uburusiya burondera cane misire za Irani ari uko zoba zifise ubuhinga ziharije, ariko gusa ni ukubera ubwinshi bwazo kandi ziboneka bitagoranye, zaba iziraswa ku ntera ngufi canke zikoreshwa ku rubuga rw’intambara.

Amasezerano azwi nka Traité sur les forces nucléaires à portée intermédiaire (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty), INF mu mpfunyapfunyo, yashizwe mu ngiro kuva mu 1988 gushika mu 2019, yaratumye Uburusiya budahingura ibisasu vyinshi vya misire biraswa kure. Uburusiya, co kimwe na Amerika ntivyashobora kugerageza canke ngo birungike ibi bisasu, vyaba ibiraswa n’indege canke birasirwa ku butaka, bishika ku ntera iri hagati y’ibirometero 1000 na 5500. Aya masezerano ntiyabuza ihingurwa ry’ibi bisasu, ariko uko vyagenda kwose, Uburusiya ntibwashoboye guhingura vyinshi imbere y’iyi ntambara.

Nayo ku bijanye na za misire zikoreshwa ku rubuga rw’intambara (missiles opérationnels-tactiques / operational-tactical missiles), vyagiye kugaragara ko bikoreshwa ku rugero rurengeye cane Uburusiya muri ino ntambara bigaragara ko butari bwiteguriye bihagije ko izomara igihe kirekire nk’iki.

Ibikoho vyo mu bwoko bwa Iskander birekura ibisasu vya misire biriko birakoreshwa, kandi amahinguriro y’Uburusiya arabandanya ahingura ibisasu vya misire vyavyo, ariko biragaragara ko bidakwiye, uravye ingene bikoreshwa gake cane.

Perezida Vladimir Zelensky wa Ukraine avuga ko ata nkuru afise ko Irani yoba yaratanguye guha Uburusiya ibi bisasu vya misire. Ariko kubona mu ndwi zibiri n’inusu ishobora kuba ifise aka karyo, ni ikintu giteye ubwoba Ukraine n’incuti zayo.

Ku wa 19-20 Nyakanga (9), umushikiranganji w’Uburusiya ajejwe kwivuna abansi Sergei Shoigu yaragendeye Irani, aho yashoboye kwitabira igikorwa co kwerekana inguvu za gisirikare z’igisata ca gisirikare kizwi nka Corps des Gardiens de la Révolution Islamique/Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Ico gihe, baramweretse ibikoresho bishasha bikoreshwa mu kurungika amadrone yo mu bwoko bwa Shahed-136, hamwe n’ibisasu bitari bike.

Nk’uko vyandikwa n’abasanzwe bakoresha konte ya X (yahoze yitwaTwitter) y’ubushikiranganji bwo kwivuna abansi bwa Irani, iyi nayo ikaba ikurikiranira hagufi ibikorwa vya gisirikare vya Tehran, muri ibi bisasu harimwo igisasu ca misire kiraswa kure, gishobora gushika ku ntera y’ibirometero 1500.

Ugufashanya mu vya gisirikare hagati y’Uburusiya na Irani, uretse impinduka kuzana ku rubuga rw’intambara muri Ukraine, hari ibindi bikomeye gushobora kuzana.

Kimwe muri vyo ni uko Irani yohabwa ubuhinga bwa gisirikare n’ubwo guhingura ibirwanisho. Aha twokwitega cane cane ko izohabwa indege z’intambara zo mu bwoko bwa Su-35.

Mu ntango z’ukwa gatatu, imboneshakure ikongera ikaba n’iradiyo IRIB yo muri Irani, yasubiyemwo isoko ry’ubuserukizi bwa Irani muri ONU ariko itavuzwe izina, zivuga ko Tehran yari yamaze kwemeza amasezerano y’ubuguzi bw’izi ndege. Nta mutegetsi wa Moscou yigeze agira ico abivugako.

Mu mpera za Kigarama (12) 2022, bisubiramwo amasoko yo mu burengero, ibinyamakuru vya Israel vyanditse ko ibi birwanisho bishobora kuba vyaratanzwe. Nk’uko isoko ryo mu kinyamakuru i24NEWS co muri Israel ribivuga, vyavugwa ko Irani yoba yararonse indege 24 zo mu bwoko bwa Su-35, mu ntango zoba zari zigenewe Misiri. Ibinyamakuru vyo muri Israel bivuga ko aya masezerano atavuye ku gitsure ca Amerika.

Irungikwa ry’ibi birwanisho rishobora gutuma ibintu bitoroha mu burasirazuba bwo hagati. Cane cane, Israel iratewe impungenge na Irani kuronswa ubuhinga bwa gisirikare bwa none cane ibirwanisho vya none.

Nk’uko bivugwa n’umuhinga wa gisirikare wo muri Israel, David Gendelman, Israel iracijijanya imitima kugiriranira amasezerano na Ukraine yo gufashanya mu vyo ubuhinga bwa gisirikare, bivanye n’uko idashaka gutuma Uburusiya na bwo buha Irani ibirwanisho nk’ibi.

Aciye ku rubuga rwa Facebbok, abandanya agira ati: “Ufatiye ku zindi ntambara zose Israel iriko irarwana, ariko bikaba atariko bimeze ku bindi bihugu vy’Uburengero, kugira urundi rwasiro aho yokwisanga ihanganye n’Uburusiya muri Irani no muri Syria ni ikintu itipfuza na gato. Ubiravye, Uburusiya bushobora guha Irani ikintu cotuma ijabuka umurongo utukura kuri Israel, aha ibintu bigashobora guca biyangara: ‘mu gihe bimaze gutangwa, nta bwoba wogira ko bizotangwa’, ariko aho ntiturahashika”.

Rero, mu gihe Irani yoramuka irungikiye Uburusiya misire zikoreshwa ku rubuga rw’intambara hamwe n’iziraswa kure, uretse ko zishobora gutuma ibintu bihinduka mu ntambara yo muri Ukraine, zishobora kandi no guhindura ibintu no mu tundi turere.