Ukraine - Russia: Ibintu bitanu bishobora gutuma Putin atagomora igitero ca nikleyeri

Steve Rosenberg

Umwanditsi mukuru ku Burusiya

Umengo ndiko ndorera ireresi ya James Bond.

Ari ahantu hafi ya Moscou, umukuru w’igihugu c’Uburusiya ari imbere y’abanyagihugu maze abazwa ibijanye n’ivyahishuwe.

Umuhagarikizi yibutsa Putin ko igihe kimwe yahishuye ko inyuma y’igitero ca nikleyeri Abarusiya bazoca bidugira mw’iparadizo.

N’ivyizigiro vyinshi, umuhagarikizi yabajije ati: "Ntituriko turihuta kujayo, si vyo”?

Yamaze umwanya muremure atavuga, aboneka ko bitamuguye neza. Agacerere k’amasegonda indwi.

Umuhagarikizi avamwo avuga ati: "Agacerere kawe kanteye amakenga”.

N’agatwengo, Putin yishura ati: "Yari yo ntumbero yanje”.

Ntutwenge. Iyi ntabwo ari ireresi ya Hollywood uba uzi neza ko ifise iherezo ryiza.

Ibimaze amezi umunani aheze ni umukino nyawo wateje amaganya atavugwa kuri Ukraine, aho abatari bake ubu babona ko isi iri hafi y’imishamirano ya nikleyeri itari bwigere ibaho kuva kuri ya mishamirano yari ishingiye ku bisasu vya misire vya Cuba (Missiles de Cuba/ Cuban Missile Crisis ) haraciye imyaka 60.

None ivyanditswe bigiye kugenda gute kuva ubu?

Vyose biva ku nyishu itangwa kuri iki kibazo ngo: Vladimir Putin yoba yiteguye gushika he kugira ngo atahukane intsinzi canke ntahave atsindwa muri Ukraine?

Usubiyemwo ugasoma iri jambo yashikirije igihugu ku wa 24 Ruhuhuma (2), igihe agomorera ingabo kuri Ukraine, ushobora kuba ubona ko azokora ikintu ico ari co cose coba ngombwa:

"Hanyuma ubu nashaka kuvuga aya majambo akomeye – akomeye cane – kuri abo bose bohirahira bakarondera kwivanga mu biriko biraba. Abo bose bazogerageza kwitambika mu nzira yacu canke gutera ubwoba igihugu cacu n’abanyagihugu bacu bogaba: inyishu y’Uburusiya izoba ubwo nyene kandi izogira ingaruka batari bwigere babona mu buzima bwabo bwose”.

Hanze y’Uburusiya, abatari bake bafashe amajambo "ingaruka mutari bwigere mubona kuva mubaho" nk’amajambo atagira ikinya yo gutera ubwoba kw’ikoreshwa ry’ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri. Eka mbere no mu mezi yakurikiye amajambo nk’aya yarabandanije.

Mu kwa kane, Perezida Putin yaragabishije ko hoba "inyishu mu kanya isase mu gihe hogira umuntu agerageza kwivanga no gutera ubwoba Uburusiya. Turafise ibirwanisho vyose dukeneye kuri iki”.

Mu kw’icenda, yarongeyeko umurongo w’uburakari, ati: "Si ndiko ndayayata".

Mu ndwi iheze, mw’ikoraniro ry’umwaka rya Valdai (ari naho yerekaniye aka gacerere karekare kandi gateye ubwoba), Perezida Putin yashikirije amajambo y’uruvangatirane.

Yahakanye ko afise umugambi wo gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri muri Ukraine.

Ati: "Tubona bidakenewe. Nta mvo ziriho za poritike canke za gisirikare zobidutuma”.

Ariko mu vyavugirwa mu ntamatama muri iryo koraniro rya Valdai, ibihuha ntivyashobora kubura.

Dmitry Suslov, umwe mu bagize umurwi ujejwe ibibazo vy’imigenderanire n’ukwivuna abansi w’Uburusiya, avuga ati: "Hari impungenge ko Uburusiya buzokoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri. Atari mu kurwanya Ukraine, ahubwo mu kurwanya Uburengero.

"Mu gihe misire imwe yonyene ya Amerika yoramuka iteye ikigo ca gisirikare hagati mu Burusiya, aho rero twoba dukorokeye mu ntambara y’umuhero w’isi.

"Dufatiye ku nyigisho z’Uburusiya zijanye n’ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri, Uburusiya bwoca ubwo nyene bukora igitero ruhonyanganda ca nikleyeri kuri Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika no mu ncuti zayo za OTAN/NATO.

"Mu gihe tworamuka tubonye misire z’Uburengero zitewe ku butaka bwacu, ata kuraba ibirwanisho zoba zikoreye, aha isi yose yoba itikiye”.

Aya yoba ari amajambo yo gutabaza? Neza cane.

Yoba avuga ibizohava biba? Nta vyo nzi neza.

Dushize ku ruhande ivy’agacerere umukuru w’igihugu yerekana (ivyo ari vyo vyose kugira ngo yerekane ko ibintu bitoroshe) n’amajambo aherutse kuvugwa mu Burusiya, si nibaza ko Kremlin yoba iriko irategura kwunyura ibintu mu gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri muri Ukraine ubu.

Cane cane dufatiye kuri bintu bintu bitanu.

1. Amatora y’abashingamateka n’abakenguzamateka muri Amerika

Mu ntango za kuno kwezi, umukuru w’inkehwa mu nama nshingamateka Kevin McCarthy yaragabishije ko Abarepubulika badashobora kwama barekura amafaranga uko nyene agenda muri Ukraine mu gihe boramuka bigaruriye inama nshingamateka.

Uwo ni umuziki uryoshe mu matwi ya Putin.

N’aho bitaboneka neza nimba intsinzi y’Abarepubulika ishobora kugira ingaruka mbi ku mfashanyo Amerika iha Ukraine, Kremlin yokwakiriza yompi ikintu ico ari co cose cotume imfashanyo Amerika iha Kyiv zigabanuka.

2. Urushana i Bulaya

Biboneka ko Vladimir Putin abandanya aharura ko, mu gihe gaze (gaz/gas) y’Uburusiya izoba itakija i Bulaya, imbeho y’urushana izotuma amasoko ntanganguvu akubitika bikomeye, ubuzima nabwo bwanke rwose, ibizotuma amareta y’ibihugu vy’Uburengero arondera kugiriranira amasezerano na Kremlin: bigabanye imfashanyo biha Ukraine hanyuma Uburusiya nabwo bubihe ibitoro.

Gushika ubu, Ubulaya buboneka ko bwiteguriye urushana gusumba uko Moscou yoba ivyiteze.

Gitugutu (10) kwabonetse ko kutari gukanye (gukonje mu kinyarwanda) uko kwahora, mu gihe gaze itangwa yiyongereye, ibi bigasigura ko ububiko bwikwije kandi n’ibiciro vya gaze ku mugabane wa Bulaya bikaba vyaragabanutse.

Ariko mu gihe urugero rw’ubushuye rwomanuka, imbeho nayo nyene ishobora guca yiyongera, cane cane muri Ukraine, aho igisirikare c’Uburusiya kimaze igihe itera ibikorwa remezo vyayo.

3. Akamo atera

Mu misi iheze, twarabonye ingene Vladimir Putin yagiye afata ingingo zo gutera akamo ibisata vy’ubutunzi n’amahinguriro vy’Uburusiya kugira ngo bifate mu mugongo “igikorwa kidasanzwe ca gisirikare” ciwe muri Ukraine.

Mu buryo bwinshi, bisa n’uko igihugu cose coba kimaze igihe kirekire mu ntambara.

Ikimenyetso kumbure c’uko Kremlin yoba iriko iritegurira intambara ndende muri Ukraine.

4. Impande zompi gutikira

Iya majambo remezo yo muri ya ntambra yo kwikekana (Guerre froide/Cold War) aracafise ishingiro gushika ubu.

Asigura ko mu gihe hoba uruhande rutera amabombe ruhonyanganda ya nikleyeri, urundi rwoca ruyarekura uko nyene kandi ko bose bopfa.

Mu ntambara ya nikleyeri nta n’umwe atsinda. Putin arabizi.

Nimba hari icigwa isi yakuye mu mishamirano ya misire za Cuba, ni ingene bishobora gushika giturumbuka isi ikisanga iri ku munwa w’imanga kubera ibiharuro bibi no kutavugana neza.

Iki gica kinshikana ku gituma kigira gatanu…

5. Ukwihenda

“Igikorwa kidasanzwe ca gisirikare” ca Putin ntikiriko kigenda uko categuwe. Igikorwa cari citezwe gufata imisi canke, gitevye, amayinga make, kimaze gufata amezi umunani.

Kremlin isa n’uko yasuzuguye ubushobozi bwa Ukraine bwo kwirwanako, imfashanyo Uburengero buha Kyiv hamwe n’isegenya y’ibihano mpuzamakungu Uburusiya bwashobora gufatirwa.

N’aho yijeje abantu mu ntango ko “abasirikare babigize umwuga” bonyene ari bo bari kurwana, Perezida Putin vyarangiye “ateye akamo” kwo kwinjiza izindi ngabo.

Hejuru y’iki, ingabo z’Uburusiya zigenda zitakaza ubutaka zari zigaruriye kuva mu ndwi nkeya ziheze kubera igitero ca Ukraine co kwivuna.

Ariko ni gake Putin yemera ko yakoze amakosa.

Ubu asa n’uwiyemeje kubandanya iyi ntambara kandi akaba yaje yerekana ikintu ashobora kwita itsinzi.