US election 2020 polls: Taa ló ń léwájú- Trump tàbí Biden?

Aworan ori Biden ati Trump to kọju si ara wọn
    • Author, The Visual and Data Journalism Team
    • Role, BBC News

Awọn oludibo Amẹrika yoo kopa ninu idibo aarẹ lọjọ kẹta oṣu Kọkanla lati yan ẹni ti yoo ṣakoso eto ilẹ naa fọdun mẹrin mii.

Aarẹ Trump ti ẹgbẹ Republican n koju atako lọdọ Joe Biden to ṣe igbakeji Barack Obama.

Odu ni Biden kii ṣe aimọ foloko lagbo oṣelu Amẹrika to si wa ninu ẹgbẹ Democrat.

Bi ọjọ naa ṣe n sunmọ, awọn ileeṣẹ to n ko ero awọn oludibo jọ nipa ẹni ti wọn yan laayo ko ni dawọ iṣẹ duro.

Nileeṣẹ wa nibi, a o maa fọkan tẹle awọn akojọpọ ero oludibo yi lati le mọ ibi ti ọrọ naa yoo pada ja si.

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Bawọ lawọn oludije yi ṣe n rọwọ mu si jakejado Amẹrika?

Akojọpọ ero awọn oludibo lorileede Amẹrika jẹ ọna kan gbogi lati fi mọ bi awọn oludibo ba ti ṣe gba ti oludje kọọkan si.

Fun apẹrẹ lọdun 2016, Hilary Clinton lo le waju ninu akojọ ero oludibo to si fi ibo to le ni miliọnu mẹta ju Trump lọ ṣugbọn o pada fidirẹmi naa ni.

Idi ni pe ilana electoral college ti Amẹrika n lo ko tumọ si pe bi eeyan ba ni ibo to pọju lọ yoo jawe olubori. Bi a ba fi koko pataki yii sọkan yoo jẹ ki a mọ bi nkan yoo ṣe lọ ninu idbo tọdun yii.

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Ta lo n lewaju ninu eto idibo orilẹede

News image

Ẹgbẹ oṣelu Democrats

Biden

52%

News image

Ẹgbẹ oṣelu Republicans

Trump

44%

Erongba oludibo lori ibo ẹni kọọkan

Ọjọ
Biden
Trump
Nov 02 52 44
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Mar 08 51 42
Mar 07 50 43
Mar 06 49 45
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Jan 18 48 46
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Jan 12 48 46
Jan 11 48 46

30 days until Ọjọ idibo

Eto ibo iwadii ti BBC yoo maa wo awọn idibo iwadii ni orilẹede kọọkan laarin ọjọ mẹrinla, eleyi ti yoo wa fi ṣe agbekalẹ odinwọn aarin gbogbo rẹ lapapọ

Presentational white space

Lọwọlọwọ, o ti le ni ọdun kan bayi ti Joe Biden ti n lewaju ninu akojọ ero awọn oludibo jakejado Amẹrika .

Lẹnu ọsẹ meloo kan sẹyin, niṣe ni o wa laarin ida aadọta akojọ ero yii to si fi ami ayo mẹwa le waju lawọn asiko kan. Ni afiwe idibo ọdun 2016, ero oludibo ko ṣafihan iyatọ to to eleyi taa n ri nisinsiyi.

Laarin Trump ati Clinton nigba naa, ami ayo diẹ ni wọn fi ju ara wọn lọ. Ko dabi ti eleyi ti Biden ja Trump kalẹ daada.

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Ipinlẹ wo ni yoo sọ ibi ti ọpa ẹbiti ibo yoo re si ??

Hilary Clinton to fun wa larikọgbọn pe kii ṣe iye ibo to ba ri ni yoo ṣe atọna boya o ma jawe olubori.

Kii saba si iyatọ ninu bi pupọ awọn ipinlẹ to wa l'Amẹrika ṣe n dibo.

O si lawọn ibi ti awọn oludije yoo ti gbegba oroke koda awọn ipinlẹ kan jẹ oju ina lasiko idibo yi.

Presentational white space

Ninu ilana electoral College taa n wi yi, idibo a maa waye labẹ akori ipinlẹ kọọkan dipo ki wọn ka iye eeyan to dibo ni gbogboogbo.

Ipinlẹ kọọkan ni aye ti wọn fi kalẹ labẹ Electoral College yi tapapọ rẹ si jẹ ibo ejidinlogojilenieedegbeta.

Eni to ba fẹ pegede gbọdọ ni ibo ọtalenigbalemẹwaa ki o to le di aarẹ.

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Ta lo n lewaju lawọn ipinlẹ oju ina?

Lọwọlọwọ bayi, Joe Biden lo n lewaju ṣugbọn obiri laye, o le yi pada ki o fi sọdọ Trump.

Akojọ ero awọn oludibo(poll) n tọka si pe ni ipinlẹ bi Michigan, Pennsylvania ati Wisconsin, oun lo n lewaju.

Awọn eto idibo lagbegbe to gbona janajan

Sun atẹ wa silẹ tabi oke lati ri ẹkunrẹrẹ akọsilẹ
Tẹ ibi yii ki o le ṣe tabili lati isalẹ si oke tabi lati oke si isalẹ ninu atẹ naa
Arizona 47.9% 47.0% Trump + 3.6%
Florida 47.9% 47.0% Trump + 1.2%
Georgia 47.2% 48.2% Trump + 5.2%
Iowa 45.6% 47.6% Trump + 9.5%
Michigan 50.0% 45.8% Trump + 0.2%
Minnesota 48.0% 43.7% Clinton + 1.5%
Nevada 48.7% 46.3% Clinton + 2.4%
New Hampshire 53.4% 42.4% Clinton + 0.4%
North Carolina 47.6% 47.8% Trump + 3.7%
Ohio 46.3% 47.3% Trump + 8.2%
Pennsylvania 48.7% 47.5% Trump + 0.7%
Texas 46.5% 47.8% Trump + 9.1%
Virginia 51.7% 40.3% Clinton + 5.4%
Wisconsin 51.0% 44.3% Trump + 0.8%

Jọwọ ṣe atunṣe ilana ikansi ayelujara rẹ lati ri ẹkunrẹrẹ rẹ

Orisun: US Census Iye akọsilẹ to waye gbẹyin 03/11

Presentational white space

Lọdun 2016, Trump fi 1% ja Clinton lawọn ipinlẹ wọn yi.

Amọ ṣa ohun to yẹ ki Biden gbajumọ ni bi yoo ti ṣe rọwọ mu lawọn ipinlẹ bi Iowa Ohio ati Texas nitori nkan bi 8-10% ni Trump fi ja alatako rẹ nibẹ ninu ibo to kọja

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Ṣe ajakalẹ coronavirus ti koba ipo Trump lori akasọ?

Lati ibẹrẹ ọdun yi to ti gbori afẹfẹ kan, ọrọ ajakalẹ Covid-19 ati bi aarẹ Trump ti ṣe koju rẹ jẹ nkan tawọn eeyan n ran lẹnu.

Ni nkan bi aarin oṣu kẹta ọdun yi, awọn eeyan fi ifẹ han si igbesẹ rẹ to gbe nipa pipese owo iranwọ aadọta biliọnu dọla fawọn ipinlẹ Amẹrika lati koju ajakalẹ yi.

Lasiko taa n sọ yi o le ni ida marun le laadọta oludibo ti wọn fi ero han pe awọn n ṣe tiẹ ninu akojọ 'poll' ti ileeṣẹ Ipsos gbe jade.

Ipa ajakalẹ arun Coronavirus lori akojọ ero oludibo
Presentational white space

Ṣugbọn ko pẹ ti atilẹyin awọn ọmọ ẹgbẹ Democrat fi poora amọ awọn ti Republican ko jawe ninu atilẹyin wọn fun un.

Loṣu to kọja awọn alatilẹyin rẹ ninu ẹgbẹ Republican kọọkan ti n fi han pe awọn ko fi taratara gba tiẹ mọ.

Ọrọ yi ko ṣẹyin igbesẹ to n gbe lati koju Covid-19 ati bi ọwọja arun naa ṣe n peleke si.

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Njẹ a le fọkan tọ akojọ ero ara ilu taa pe ni 'poll' yi?

Eeyan le sọ wipe ka fọwọ rọ akojọ ero ara ilu yi nitori bi o ti ṣe gbe gbagi pẹlu Hilary Clinton lọdun 2016.

Ninu awọn to ni ka maa gbaa gbọ ni aarẹ Trump wa.

Pupọ awọn poll to waye lọdun 2016 lo ni Hilary Clinton lo ṣeeṣe ki o jawe olubori ṣugbọn eyi ko tunmọ si pe wọn gbe gbagi patapata.

Ka sọ ootọ, awọn akojọ ero ara ilu kọọkan laahẹ pẹlu bi wọn ko ti ṣe ṣẹkunrẹrẹ akojọ ero ara ilu lawọn aaye kọọkan paapa awọn ti ko kẹkọ gboye fasiti.

Ohun teyi tunmọ si ni pe wọn ko tete ṣafihan biu aarẹ Trump ṣe mu oke laarin awọn ti ko kawe pupọ titi ti ọjọ fi lọ mọ awọn alatako rẹ lọwọ.

Pupọ awọn to n ko ero oludibo jọ ti ṣe atunṣe aṣiṣe yi bayi.

Amọ ṣa lọdun yi,ko yi daju ibi ti ọpa ẹbiti yoo re si nitori ajakalẹ Covid-19 to n da ọpọ eto ru.

Nitorinaa, a ko ti le sọ ni pato pe akojọ ero oludibo kankan le ṣe atọhan to daju ibi ti idibo ọdun yi yoo ja si.

Ọjọ ibo ṣi jina, oju ree iran re lọrọ to wa nilẹ yi.