Rivers state don enta new political division, but wat next for Rivers politics?

Rivers State politics once again don become a national flashpoint wey dey marked by legal battles, party crisis, executive and legislative tensions, and growing public fear.

Di build up of dis tension don reach di highest point, wey be di impeachment proceedings wey di State House of Assembly don begin against di State Govnor, Siminalayi Fubara and im Deputy, Prof Ngozi Nma Odu.

Di Assembly say dem don serve di impeachment notice on di Govnor and im deputy, and confam say dem dey on course wit di proceedings as rumour burst say some pesins wan use court to stop di process.

In response, di Rivers State Govnor Siminalayi Fubara don ask pipo for di State to dey calm as tensions dey rise and e dey expected to respond to di allegations of gross misconduct within di next 14 days.

Wit institutions under stress and as alliances dey change fast fast, dis moment don raise a critical kwesion: wetin dey ahead for Rivers State during di controversies?

Dis dey come on di back of di rainbow coalition wey FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike say go determine di political future of di State.

Already dis rainbow coalition dey at play as key political office holders for di State na members of both di Peoples Democratic Party PDP and di All Progressives Congress APC, especially with di recent defections wey happen for di State Assembly wia 16 members don officially defect to di APC.

Di Govnor and some National Assembly members also don defect from di PDP to APC.

Also, majority of di local govment chairmen dey di APC with 20 of di 23 of dem but dia loyalty dey with di FCT Minister wey presently dey di PDP.

Wetin dis ‘rainbow coalition’ imply?

For lawyer and Political analyst, Liborous Oshoma, di rainbow coalition na political arrangement wey go favour di interest of those wey dey involved.

E say e show how influential di FCT Minister don be for both di PDP and di APC and na sometin wey no dey peculiar to am.

"You don see in time past wia political parties dey adopt di Presidential candidate of di ruling party during elections, na dI same tin wey dey play out now so e no dey too different.

For Nigeria wia political leanings no dey normally dey follow ideology but interest, na im make dem say politicains no dey get permanent friends or permanent enemies. Na di common interests dem get dey guide dem na im make you dey see all di alignments and realignment," e tok.

Oshoma also observe say wit di tension wey dis recent developments dey bring for di state, na di President as di National leader of di APC naim go fit intervene and call di parties to drop dia swords as e bin don do bifor becos dI fact say di Govnor and Assembly member dey same political party no fit stop di impeachment process as e don happen at different times bifor.

E note say though di FCT Minister don refer several times to ‘an agreement’, e dey expected say pipo wey agree to sometin dey bound to do am, but an illegal agreement no dey enforceable by law. “So wetin be dis agreement?” E ask.

How dis dey affect governance for di state?

"Di only tin impeachment promise any environment na disruption." Na so business analyst Ignatius Chukwu tok.

Chukwu add say impeachment dey come wen political engagement don break down kpata-kpata, so e dey come to bring down di executive so tins fit go well.

"But wen e dey happun for an environment wia pipo no dey totally sure of wetin dey happun; wen di pipo no really understand wetin be di grievance or offence wey di lawmakers get - you see say di Rivers electorate no dey hungry for any change, dem neva see any gross actions of di sitting Govnor or deputy govnor wey go warrant impeachment. But wen e happun, e go scatter governance for di State and create room for crisis in di State."

Chukwu note say di implications of dis actions no go only affect Rivers State alone but di entire Nigeria becos di headquarters of di oil and gas industry wey be di main revenue earner for di kontri dey Rivers State, so wen dat State no dey at peace, di entire kontri sef no go dey at peace.

"Evribodi say dem dey for President Tinubu but di tins dem dey do no show like dat becos dia actions fit directly or indirectly affect di revenue of di kontri wey go in turn affect di programmes, plans and policies wey di President get."

E add say wen impeachment happun e go affect human beings, affect economic activities, pipo livelihood and State policies so wen governance breakdown, economic governance na di first to suffer am and dis mean say di citizens no dey protected.

Next steps: President intervention?

To solve dis, Chukwu say e dey fundamental to know di cause of di quarrel as dat na im go show wetin di solution go be.

"If di disagreements get to do wit policies and fundamental principles of governance like should women vote, dis kain one pesin fit know how to solve am and say Govnor allow women to vote.

But if di quarrel no dey clear to di citizens, if di citizens no know exactly who dey angry - weda na a section of di state dey vex or na one pesin wey dey vex? Democracy no know how to recognise one pesin but e recognise a block of votes called electorate.

So di solution na how to know who dey angry and how to pacify dem.

Di Govnor don tok say e no dey ready to give away 35% of internally generated revenue (IGR).

We no know wetin e dey tok about as e no mention any bodi name. But if dat na di problem, dem neva table am bifor di public to judge so e dey under speculation.

Nobody don tell di Rivers electorate wetin be di issues for dem to suggest how to solve am. So di way forward na for President Tinubu to intervene and solve di issues as e don do bifor

Na dis same tin Oshoma echo as e say, “a timely intervention by di President fit help as e don do bifor,".

Dis e say na becos as di process dey go so, e go take about di next five to six months to see how di impeachment process go play out.