Wetin dey inside di leaked US draft plan to end Russia Ukraine war

Dem don widely leak one US and Russia peace plan draft, and now we don know say e propose to hand ova di areas of Ukraine industrial eastern Donbas region wey still dey under Ukraine control to di de facto control of Vladimir Putin Russia.

Latest version of di text also call for Ukraine to cut di size of dia soldiers to 600,000 pipo.

But wetin else we know about di text and who go benefit from am pass?

Wetin be di key points?

Na 28 key points and e get some of dem wey Ukraine fit gree to am. Odas come across as vague and imprecise.

Dem go "confam" Ukraine sovereignty, and dem go get "total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe" wit robust or reliable "security guarantees" for Kyiv and demand for quick election in 100 days.

If Russia wan invade Ukraine, "robust co-ordinated military response" deypropose along wit restoration of sanctions and scrapping of di deal.

Although election no fit hapun now for Ukraine as martial law in place, e fit theoretically hapun if dem sign peace deal.

But on security guarantees, detail no dey on who go provide dem and how robust e go be.

E fall short of one Nato-style Article Five commitment to treat attack on Ukraine as an attack on all. Kyiv go want more dan promise wey no clear if dem go sign up.

Handover of Ukraine territory and to cut down armed forces

Among di most controversial proposals na say Ukraine go hand ova im own unoccupied territory and dem go cut down di size of armed forces.

"Ukrainian forces go withdraw from di part of Donetsk Oblast dem dey currently control, and dis withdrawal zone dem dey considered to be neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to di Russian Federation. Russian forces mo go enta dis demilitarised zone."

To release territory wia at least one quarter of one million Ukrainians dey live – di Donetsk "fortress belt" cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka - most Ukrainians no go accept am. Russia don spend more dan one year dey try to capture Pokrovsk town – Ukraine dey unlikely to hand ova such important strategic hubs without fighting.

"Di number of di Ukrainian Armed Forces go dey limited to 600,000 personnel."

Last January, dem estimate say Ukraine get 880,000 active personnel, up from 250,000 at di start of di full-scale invasion for February 2022.

While 600,000 fit look like a potentially acceptable number in peacetime, dat kind of limit go infringe on Ukrainian sovereignty. e fit be big number for Russia to accept.

"Our red lines dey clear and unwavering," Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn tell UN security Council: "We no go ever formally recognise any Ukraine territory wey Russia don occupy as Russian Federation. Ukraine no go accept any limit on im rights to self defence or on di size or capabilities of our armed forces.

Di draft also propose say "Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk go recognise Russia as de facto Russian, including by di United States".

In oda words, Ukraine and oda kontris no go need to recognise Russian control by law. E fit enable Kyiv accept such phrasing, as e no go affect Ukraine constitution wey say im borders dey "indivisible and inviolable".

Elsewhere, for di southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzia, di front lines go dey frozen and Russia go areas go comot body from areas e don occupy go oda areas.

Ukraine future - na wit EU but not Nato

Di draft propose significant commitments on Ukraine strategic future:

"Ukraine agree to enshrine dia constitution say dem no go join Nato and Nato agree to include for dia statutes provision say Ukraine no go dey admitted in di future."

"Ukraine dey eligible for EU membership and go get short-term preferred market access to di European market while dem dey evaluate dis issues."

Di chance say Ukraine go join Nato any time soon na small one and Russia in recent months don soften dia stance on Ukraine candidacy for EU membership. Di document appear to offer Kyiv access to EU market while e ignore di views of 27 European kontris.

Joining both di EU and Nato dey part of Ukraine constitution and anoda of Khrystyna Hayovyshyn red lines for UN on Thursday: "We no go tolerate any infringement on our sovereignty including our sovereign right to choose di alliances we wan join."

Oda draft proposals na say Nato agree say dem no go station troops for Ukraine and say European fighter jets go dey stationed for Poland. Kyiv go also need to commit to being a "non-nuclear state".

E appear to reject di West Coalition of di Willing's plans wey di UK and France lead to help police any future deal.

To bring Russia back from isolation

Several points refer for dem to bring Russia back from isolation wit "Russia to be re-integrated into di global economy" and invite dem back into di G8 group of powers.

E be like say dat one still far for now, wit Putin under arrest warrant from di International Criminal Court. Dem throw Russia comot from G7 afta dem seize and den still annex Crimea for 2014, and Trump bin try bring Putin back into di fold six years later.

If di UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan no wan gree before di full-scale invasion start, small chance dey say e go hapun now.

What about Russia frozen assets?

Di draft propose say $100bn of frozen Russian assets go dey invested "in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine", wit di US receiving 50% of di profits and Europe adding $100bn in investment for reconstruction.

E remind of di US minerals deal wit Ukraine earlier dis year, wey cost America for involving, and e also leave di European Union wit nothing but heavy bills.

Di sum e mention fit no reach, either: earlier dis year di total cost of reconstruction for Ukraine dey estimated at $524bn (€506bn).

Some €200bn for Russia frozen assets dey largely held by Euroclear in Belgium, and di European Union dey currently work on plan to use di money to fund Kyiv financially and militarily.

Di rest of di frozen assets go go to a "US-Russian investment vehicle", under di draft, so Russia go see some of im money come back, but again financial benefit go dey for US.

Wetin no dey for di plan?

Several commentators don point out say di plan no require weapons limitations on Ukraine military or dia arms industry, even though one part tok say: If Ukraine fire missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg den dem go consider di security null and void.

But e no place restriction on di long-range weapons Ukraine don develop – such as Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles.

Dis na correct peace plan?

We sabi say US wan rush tins sharp sharp under one "agressive timeline" wit dis draft, wit tori wey suggest say Ukraine get until Thanksgiving next week to agree to am.

Equally, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, wey dey involve in drafting am, e describe am as"list of potential ideas for ending dis war", and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul don make am clear say e no see di 28 points as definitive plan, afta e don tok to oda US official wey dey involved, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff

For some ways, di draft paper be like work wey still dey go on, wit some details wey dem leak to US websites on Thursday wey no show again. Di European Union on Friday morning say dem neva officially see di plan, and Russian foreign ministry tok di same.

Di draft na Putin wishlist?

Russian specail envoy Kirill Dmitriev don spend as long as three days wit Witkoff dey discuss dis plan, raising suggestions say di deal go favour Moscow, but Russia response dey cautious, and dem say dem neva even see di plan.

Di handover of Ukrainian territory to Russia, even if na demilitarized zone, na di biggest sign of say e go towards Russia narrative, but to freeze di front line in di south e fit dey hard for Kremlin, becos dem annex both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia inside dia constitution.

One of di proposals na for di lifting of sanctions to "agree upon in stages and on case-by-case basis" - Moscow go see am say e dey too slow.

However, plan for "full amnesty" for all parties go, go down well for Moscow and very badly for Kyiv and European capitals.

Commentators don point out say while dem appear to be major concessions to Putin, some of di requirements for Nato fit no dey too clear to Kremlin liking.

Russia don also consistently demand say peace plan go need to eliminate wetin im see as "di root causes" of di war. One of di root causes na to stop Nato expansion for Eastern Europe, di draft go deal wit am.

Some of di oda 28 points of di draft also say yes to Russia claims of discrimination of Ukraine Russian-speaking population without say e clearly endorse dem.

One point dey clear but fair: "Both kontris go agree to comot all di discriminatory measures and guarantee di rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education."

Anoda clear attempt to dey fair come from di proposal to distribute electricity generated by di Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant - di biggest for Europe - "equally between Russia and Ukraine".