Bachelor crisis, 'leftover women' and condom tax – how China bet ontop baby boom go wrong

Na di Lunar New Year break, and millions of pipo across China go dey celebrate wit food, festivities and prayer.

But for some single adults, e fit be a trying time, as dia parents get days to worry dem dey ask why dem neva settle down marry or give dem grandchildren.

Childlessness for long na hot topic for China (and oda places for east Asia) and now na major preoccupation for di authorities.

E make headlines last month, as di govment release figures wey show say di kontri birth rate don fall to a new low.

Na one unwanted record – 5.63 births per 1,000 pipo na di lowest level since di creation of di People's Republic for 1949 – and one wey Chinese authorities no see coming.

Di National Bureau of Statistics data wey dem release for January show say China record just 7.92 million births in 2025, and more deaths bin dey pass births for di fourth consecutive year, meaning say di total population fall by nearly 3.4 million.

Experts for di United Nations believe say China population go kontinu to decrease, estimating say di nation go lose more than half of dia current population by di end of di century.

Yet two decades ago, di outlook bin dey very different. Di Chinese authorities bin predict say di population go continue to grow until 2033, and go reach 1.5 billion. Instead, di peak arrive 12 years earlier - and nearly 100 million pipo short of those projections.

So how China population planners get di trajectory of di world most populous nation so wrong?

Betting on a 'baby boom'

As China population approach one billion for di late 1970s, di govment come dey concerned about di effect dis go get on dia ambitious plans for economic growth.

For 1979, Deng Xiaoping govment bin introduce a policy to limit families to only one pikin.

Dem generally enforce dis one by providing financial and employment incentives to those wey comply, and make contraceptives widely available and fine those wey violate di rules.

Dem also use more threatening measures such as forced abortions and mass sterilisations at times.

Di policy certainly achieve di initial aims - di Chinese govment estimate say dem prevent about 400m births in total (although dis number dey contested) – but e also seriously affect di balance between generations.

Di concern gradually be say an ageing population go slow down di economy as di pool of young workers decrease and di ratio between taxpayers and pensioners continue to drop.

For years, China population planners assume say di low fertility rate dey temporary and say once dem lift di limits, couples go quickly get more children.

A major 2007 population strategy report, wey more dan 300 experts compile, argue say di low fertility rate get strong "rebound potential" and warn against relaxing birth control policies too quickly, even as birth rates fall.

But wen dem introduce di two-child policy for 2016, e no get any sustained rise in births. Not even di three-child policy dem announce for 2021 get much impact.

'Steady decline'

In di view of Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of di Lao China Institute at King's College London, China already bin dey experience a steady decline in fertility long bifor dem introduce di one-child policy.

"China birth rate bin dey fall by natural reasons from di early 1970s onwards - di peak of population growth in terms of children per family bin be for di 1950s and 60s," e tell di BBC.

E believe say from di 1980s, increasingly pipo decide to only get one or two children for a host of economic and oda reasons, independent of di one-child policy.

"I no think di party really bin understand how difficult e bin dey for families to economically support dia children, how much of a priority dem place on either to do am well or not to do am at all.

"We don see such changes elsewia in di world, but for China e happen very quickly," e tok.

Prof Brown believe say di Chinese govment bin dey "tripped up" by di speed of social and economic change, as di effects of policies to deal wit demography roll out over decades, but an economy fit change radically only for months or years.

Gender imbalance

Di one-child policy also get a profound legacy on China population in terms of gender.

Parents wey know say dem go rely on only one pikin to support dem for old age fit abort female foetuses, and dis come spoil di ratio of males to females.

Dis lead to a "bachelor crisis", as tens of millions of "surplus" men find demsefs unable to find a bride.

Men without a university education really struggle, as expanded access to higher education reshape di marriage market, and far more women than men go university.

"Sis come lead to a phenomenon called di 'bare branch men' - a metaphor for men wey no fit to find marriage partners," Prof Brown explain, come add say di term come from di idea say dia branches no go bear fruit – children – and drawing comparisons to di incel movement for di West.

Highly educated women, on di oda hand, increasingly chose to marry later in life, or not at all.

In an attempt to encourage dis women to marry, Chinese state-run media start to shamefully refer to dem as "sheng nu" or "leftover women".

'Dis na a very derogatory term - a reference to women wey dey discriminated against becos of dia age and wey no marry and put careers in front of marrying and settling down," Prof Brown tok.

By 2023, di proportion of women aged 25 to 29 wey dey unmarried don climb to 43%, wey come narrow di window for childbearing and further reduce birth rates.

Baby bonuses

Beijing don introduce various means to arrest di falling birth rates, including financial incentives of 3,600 yuan ($500) for each child under di age of three.

Some measures don provoke controversy. For example, dis year 13% tax on contraceptives - including condoms, birth control pills and devices - don spark concern about unwanted pregnancies and HIV rates.

But incentives don struggle to shift behaviour, as many young Chinese cite di cost of raising children as reasons for not having dem.

Millie (no be her real name), from Beijing, na air traffic controller. She and her husband born dia first child ten years ago.

She tell di BBC say she bin want a second child, but she don change her mind.

"During di pandemic, neither my mum nor my mother-in-law fit come over. My husband bin get regular business trips, and I do all di runs to school and tutoring classes.

Millie say her employer bin dey understanding and allow her to adjust her shift times, but she no fit ask for similar treatment again.

"I be full-time employee wey dey paid to work these hours. E get an unspoken rule wey say family life no suppose interfere with job obligations," she tok.

"I definitely mo to have anoda child. E no good for my body, e go dey difficult to handle childcare, and no-one go help me to cope."

Li Hongfei (no be im real name) dey run a video production company for Chongqing, south-west China.

E remember how im family use to hide im younger brother from di authorities in di 1980s.

Li dey in im 40s now. E don marry for ten years and born a daughter during di pandemic.

Di couple don think about having a second child, but dey feel di financial pressure of parenthood.

"My commission don dey dry up but di cost of running my office never go down. My little girl school fees too dey go up. My savings also dey drain out.

"We want our girl to get a brother or sister but e dey look increasingly unlikely."

Prof Brown no dey surprised say China efforts to turn di demographic tide neva dey successful yet.

"Di govment don dey do campaigns about how e dey patriotically important for pipo to get kids, but I no think say pipo really dey listen to dat wan," e tok.

"E dey very limited wetin govment fit do in di end; dem no fit force pipo to have kids.

Wetin dis one mean for China - and di world?

At around one birth per woman, China get one of di lowest fertility rates in di world, well below di replacement rate of 2.1 wey go maintain a stable population size.

A population wey dey reduce get economic and social implications for di world second-largest economy as e dey reduce di workforce and weaken consumer demand.

And China' population decline fit send ripple effects across di global economy, leading to higher prices in oda kontries around di world.

Oda economies for di region - and beyond - get similarly low fertility rates, but get much wealthier per capita, giving dia govments more scope to manage di imbalance of an ageing population.

Di danger for China na say e dey grow old before e get rich.

"Almost throughout di region, di population dey fall and age. E dey most critical in places like Japan, Taiwan, but di scale of di change for China na definitely di largest," na so Prof Brown tok.

"In terms of social welfare and for ways wey you no fit reduce di ageing population and care for di elderly, China neva yet get di wealth levels to do dat wan," e warn.

If, as di state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes, di pension pot dey run dry, di kontri fit dey run out of time to build enof funds to care for dia growing elderly population.

Yet Prof Brown dey cautiously optimistic say China go resolve dia population issues in time.

"Dem go probably try to use technology and dem get all sorts of policy levers to ease dis issues," e tok.

"I think pipo dey usually sad about China being able to do tins, and then e go always find a way."

Dis text bin originally dey published by BBC News Chinese, wit additional reporting by Kelly Ng, Silvia Chang and Britt Yip and editing by Mark Shea and Su-min Hwang.