How US election fit change di world

Wen US President Joe Biden walk through Kyiv for February 2023 for a surprise visit to show solidarity wit Volodymyr Zelensky, im Ukrainian counterpart, air sirens dey cry wit pain.

“I feel somtin… more strongly dan eva bifor,” e later recall.

E say, “America na light to di world.”

Di world now wait to see who go take charge of dis light afta Americans make dia choice for next week presidential election.

Kamala Harrisgo fit continue in Biden footsteps wit her conviction say in “dis unsettled times, e dey clear say America no fit stop”? Or e go be Donald Trump wit im hope say “Americanism, not globalism” go lead di way?

We dey live for world wia di value of US global influence dey under question.

Regional powers dey go dia own way, autocratic regimes dey make dia own alliances, and di painful wars for Gaza, Ukraine and oda places dey raise uncomfortable questions about di value of US role.

But America mata sake of dia economic and military might, and di major role for many alliances.

I turn to some observers for dia view on di global consequences of dis veri important election.

Dis na some of di tins wey fit make US election change di world:

Military power

“I no fit sugarcoat dis warnings”, Rose Gottemoeller, Nato former deputy secretary general tok. “Donald Trump na Europe nightmare, wit echoes of im threat to withdraw from Nato for evri one ears.”

US defence spending dey amount to two-thirds of di military budgets of Nato 31 oda members.

Beyond Nato, di US spends more ontop military dan di next 10 kontris combined, including China and Russia.

Trump boast say e dey play hardball to force oda Nato kontris to meet dia spending targets, wey be 2% of dia GDP - but only 23 of di member nations don hit dis target for 2024.

If Ms Harris win, Ms Gottemoeller believe say “Nato go dey in good US hands.”

But she get a warning too. “She go dey ready to continue to dey work wit Nato and di European Union to achieve victory for Ukraine, but she no go back off sake of [spending] pressure on Europe.”

But Harris team for di White House go gatz govern wit di Senate or di House, wey fit soon dey for Republican hands, and go dey ready to back foreign wars dan dia Democratic counterparts.

E get one sense say no mata who become president, pressure go dey on Kyiv to find ways out of dis war as US lawmakers no wan pass huge aid packages.

Watever happen, Ms Gottemoeller say, “I no believe say Nato gatz fall apart.” Europe go need to “step forward to lead.”

Di peacemaker?

Di next US president go gatz work for a world wey dey face greatest risk of major power confrontation since di Cold War.

“Di US remain di most important international actor for matas of peace and security”, Comfort Ero, president and CEO of di International Crisis Group, tell me.

She add one part, “but di power to help resolve conflicts don fade away.”

Wars dey become eva harder to end.

“Deadly conflict dey become more uncontrollable, wit big-power competition and middle powers on di rise,” na how Ms Ero describe di situation.

Wars like Ukraine pull in multiple powers, and flames such as Sudan put regional players wit competing interests against each oda, and some dey more invested for war dan in peace.

America dey lose di moral high ground, Ms Ero point out.

“Global actors notice say e dey apply one standard to Russia actions for Ukraine, and anoda to Israel in Gaza. Di war for Sudan don see terrible atrocities but dey treated as a second-tier issue.”

She say a win by Ms Harris go “represent continuity wit di current administration”.

If na Trump, e “fit give Israel more freer hand for Gaza and oda places, and e don tok say e fit try to cut a Ukraine deal wit Moscow ova Kyiv head".

On di Middle East, di Democratic candidate don tok plenti times on Biden firm backing of Israel “right to defend diasef".

But she also make a point say “di killing of innocent Palestinians gatz stop”.

Trump don also declare say na time to “get back to peace and stop killing pipo”.

But e reportedly tell di Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do wetin e gatz do”.

Di Republican contender dey pride imsef as a peacemaker.

“I go get peace for di Middle East, and soon,” e promise for one interview wit Saudi Arabia Al Arabiya TV on Sunday night.

E promise to expand di 2020 Abraham Accords. Dis bilateral agreements bin normalise relations between Israel and a few Arab states, but dey widely seen to don sideline di Palestinians and ultimately contribute to di current unprecedented crisis.

On Ukraine, Trump neva hide im admiration for strongmen like Russia Vladimir Putin.

E make am clear say e wan end di war for Ukraine, and wit it di US hefty military and financial support.

“I go get out. We gatz get out,” e insist for one recent rally.

For different part, Ms Harris bin say: “I don dey proud to stand wit Ukraine. I go continue to stand wit Ukraine. And I go work to ensure Ukraine win for dis war.”

But Ms Ero worry say, no mata who dey elected, tins fit get worse for di world.

Business wit Beijing

“Di biggest shock to di global economy for decades.” Dat na di view of leading China scholar Rana Mitter regarding Trump wey dey propose 60 percent tariffs on all imported Chinese goods.

Imposing expensive costs on China, and many oda trading partners, don be one of Trump most current threats for im “America first” approach.

But Trump also praise wetin e see as im own strong personal connection wit President Xi Jinping.

E tell di Wall Street Journal editorial board say e no go use military force if Beijing move to block Taiwan becos say di Chinese leader “respect me and e sabi say I dey crazy”.

But both leading Republicans and Democrats dey like hawk. Both of dem dey see Beijing as say dem dey try to comot America as di most important power.

But Mr Mitter, a British historian wey get di ST Lee Chair for US-Asia relations at Harvard Kennedy School dey see some differences.

Wit Ms Harris, e say, “relations go likely develop for linear fashion from wia dem dey now.”

If Trump win, na more “fluid scenario.” For example, on Taiwan, Mr Mitter point to Trump mixed feelings about weda e go come to di defence of an island far from America.

China leaders believe both Ms Harris and Trump go dey tough. Mr Mitter see am as “a small group of establishment type wey favour Harris as ‘beta dan di opponent wey you know.’

A significant minority see Trump as a businessman wey im power just mean a grand bargain wit China.

Climate crisis

“Di US election dey hugely important not just for di citizens but for di whole world becos of di pressing importance of di climate and nature crisis,” Mary Robinson, chair of di Elders, a group of world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela, and former president of Ireland and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, tok.

“Evri fraction of a degree mata to stop di worst impacts of climate change and prevent a future wia painful hurricanes like Milton be di norm,” she add.

But as Hurricanes Milton and Helene dey happun, Trump mock environmental plans and policies to confront dis climate emergency as “one of di greatest scams of all time.”

Many expect am to pull out of di 2015 Paris climate agreement as im do for im first term.

However, Ms Robinson believe say Trump no fit stop di momentum wey dey gada.

“E no fit stop di US energy transition and roll back di billions of dollars for green subsidies... and e no fit stop di non-federal climate movement wey no dey tire”.

She also urge Ms Harris, wey still neva get her own stand to step up “to show leadership, build on di momentum of recent years, and make odas major emitters to pick up di pace.”

Humanitarian leadership

“Di outcome of di US election hold big importance, sake of di ogbonge influence wey di United States get, not just through dia military and economic power, but through dia potential to lead wit moral authority on di global stage,” Martin Griffiths, ogbonge conflict mediator, wey also be di UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, tok.

E dey see greater light if Ms Harris win. “A Harris presidency represent dat hope,” e tell me.

For anoda one, “a return to Trump presidency go mark di beginning of to dey alone and do politics alone wey fit offer little but deep global instability and lost of hope”.

Di US na also di single largest donor wen e come to di UN system. For 2022, e provide a record of $18.1bn (£13.9bn).

But in Trump first term, e cut down funding for several UN agencies and pull out of di World Health Organisation.

Oda donors struggle to fill di gaps and na wetin Trump want make e happun.

But Mr Griffiths highlight a deep loss of hope for di humanitarian community and beyond, and criticise di Biden administration ova di poor situation for di Middle East.

Aid agency boss don repeatedly condemn Hamas October 7th assault on Israeli civilians.

But dem don also repeatedly call on di US to do much more to end di suffering of civilians for Gaza as well as for Lebanon.

Biden and im top officials repeatedly call for more aid to flow into Gaza, and make a difference at times.

But critics say di aid, and di pressure, neva dey enough.

A recent warning say some vital military assistance cut go push di decision until afta di US elections.

“True leadership go come from addressing humanitarian crises wit good moral clarity, making di protection of human life di foundation of US diplomacy and action on di world stage,” na how Mr Griffiths frame am.

But e still believe say America na necessary power.

“For time of global conflict and doubt, di world dey long for di US to rise to di challenge of responsible, leadership wey get principled... We demand more. We deserve more. And we fit dare to hope for more.”