Democrats dey reason Kamala Harris to replace Biden - but she go fit beat Trump to be US president?

On Saturday afternoon, US Vice-President Kamala Harris sit down for stage for one black cultural festival for New Orleans, wia she tok about her life story and wetin she feel say she don achieve for di White House.

Na di kind of event wey di first female, black and South Asian American vice-president dey attend evritime throughout her three-and-a-half years as Joe Biden deputy.

A small press pack dey usually follow am, smaller dan di one wey dey follow di president.

But as di Democrats thousand of miles away for Washington dey reason to replace 81-year-old Joe Biden as di party candidate for November election, afta im bad debate performance against Donald Trump wia e fall hand, di number of reporters wey follow Ms Harris don increase to dozens.

On stage and for all her travels dis weekend, di vice-president no address plenti questions about Mr Biden fitness for office and weda im go withdraw and give her di baton.

But wen she dey discuss ambition and how to forge your own path wit her audience for New Orleans, she encourage di crowd make dem no listen to naysayers.

“People for your life go tell you, even though, no be your time. No be your turn. Nobody like you don do am bifor," she tok. "Make you no ever listen to am."

Since di CNN debate on 27 June wey cause kasala, she dey defend her oga evritime, she dey argue say di 90 minutes of debate on stage no go fit beta pass im record as president.

Mr Biden imsef also strongly insist say im go continue to be di Democrats party candidate. Even though calls for di president to step aside dey increase.

Some high-profile Democrats dey join bodi behind 59-year-old Ms Harris as di natural candidate to replace am.

On Sunday, congressman Adam Schiff of California tell di NBC Meet The Press say either Mr Biden go “win overwhelmingly or im get to pass di torch to sombodi wey go fit.” Im add say Kamala Harris, fit “ win overwhelmingly” against Trump.

Na dis proposition wey don raise eyebrows among some Democrats, including Biden padi padi dem, wey dey see Ms Harris as vice-president wey bin fail in her bid for di 2020 Democratic nomination bifor dem even cast di first ballot and she dey also struggle wit record wey no dey equal and low approval ratings throughout her time for di White House.

Senior Democratic lawmakers like Mr Schiff and South Carolina, congressman Jim Clyburn don dey present Ms Harris as di obvious successor if Mr Biden go bow to party pressure last last.

Supporters point to some polls wey suggest say her performance fit beta pass di president if dem match dem up against Donald Trump hypothetically, and dem dey argue say she get di national profile, campaign infrastructure and also appeal to younger voters wey fit make di transition smooth four months bifor election day.

If dem finally give her di ticket e go be a remarkable turnaround for a woman not long ago wey some senior figures for di Biden White House see as a political weakness.

Tori be say even Mr Biden imsef bin describe her as a “work in progress" during dia first months in office.

But Jamal Simmons, one long-time Democratic strategist and Harris former communications director, say e don tey wey dem dey underestimate her.

“Weda she be a partner to di president or she need to lead di ticket, she be somebody wey Republicans and di Trump campaign need to take seriously,” Mr Simmons tell BBC.

Since di debate and di fall-out, Ms Harris don change her schedule to stick close to di president.

She show face for one meeting last Wednesday wia Mr Biden dey seek to reassure powerful Democratic governors about im fitness for office.

And one day later, on di Fourth of July - America Independence Day - she abandon her usual tradition of grilling hotdogs for firefighters and Secret Service agents for her Los Angeles home to stay by Mr Biden side for di White House celebrations.

Di former top prosecutor don focus on criticising Trump for public appearances since di debate, she dey push di case as to why voters suppose believe im threat to democracy and women’s rights.

At di same time, she don offer nothing but steadfast support for Mr Biden.

Vice-presidents always need to strike a delicate balancing act between ambition and loyalty, but Ms Harris know say dis no be di moment wia she fit show any difference between her and di president.

Who else dem dey reason?

Kamala Harris, however, dey far from di only alternative to Mr Biden as dem dey discuss.

Di list of potential pipo wey fit replace Biden range from a row of popular govnors.

Dem include Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gavin Newsom of California, Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro and Illinois JB Pritzker. E neva finish, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California congressman Ro Khanna sef dey.

Ms Harris and her staff no gree engage in public speculation. But her team dey aware of di tins wey dey happun , behind-di-scenes conversations wey dey go on as some party members dey throw dia weight behind her.

One memo wey bin circulate online, wey be like say na Democratic operatives, write am, lay out a detailed argument to promote Ms Harris despite her “real political weaknesses”.

Trying to choose anybody wey no be her fit scata evritin for di campaign and keep "Democratic bickering" for di media spotlight for months, e argue.

If Mr Biden wan to give up im nomination, di idea of di Democrats to jump over Ms Harris and favour anoda candidate go make many pipo wey dey di left side of di party vex and dia powerful black caucus.

For dat kain situation, "dis party no suppose in any way do anytin to work around Ms Harris", Mr Clyburn, one of di most prominent black lawmakers for Congress, tell MSNBC last week.

Republicans, too, don acknowledge say Ms Harris go be di frontrunner to replace Mr Biden.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina bin warn on Sunday say di Republicans must dey ready for a “dramatically different race” if Ms Harris – wey im describe as a “vigorous” candidate - become di nominee.

On im part, Donald Trump bin call her “pathetic” since di days of debate.

But ultimately di only question wey dey important for many Democrats - including deep-pocket donors - na if she get beta chance of beating Trump dan Joe Biden. And e dey deeply uncertain, e no sure for her at all.

Wetin di polls say?

Pipo wey dey back Harris point to one recent CNN poll wey suggest say she fit do beta dan di president against Trump for November.

For head-to-head contest, Ms Harris follow di Republican by only two points, while Mr Biden dey behind wit six points.

Di poll also suggest say Ms Harris performance beta pass Mr Biden wit independent voters and women.

But many polling experts dismiss di hypothetical surveys, dem note say voter sentiment fit change if Mr Biden actually decide to step aside and di Democrats accept oda potential candidates.

One Democratic pollster wey dey close to Biden campaign acknowledge say Ms Harris fit get more potential to expand di party voter base d di president, but im no dey too sure about how much of a difference she fit make.

Surveys wey put her against Trump for dis stage “no mean anytin”, dis na wetin di pesin wey no wan disclose im identity becos dem no dey authorised to speak to di media tok.

Ms Harris, wey be di pikin of Indian mama and Jamaican papa, dey do well for surveys dan Mr Biden wit black, Latino and young voters - critical constituencies wey her padi-padi dem say she fit energise as di nominee.

But weda she go actually boost turnout among younger voters of colour na anoda question wey dem no dey sure about. “Dis na di moment to wait and see ” di pollster tok.

Some for di party dey also ask weda Ms Harris progressive reputation dey at risk of losing di union and blue-collar voters for battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin wey Mr Biden narrowly win for 2020 and wey both parties need to secure a win for November.

If she take over di ticket, some Democrats don suggest say dem fit pick Govnor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as running mate to capture centrist voters for di Midwestern states.

Wit di ages of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, voters dey pay far more attention to di VP candidate of both parties for di election cycle, Celinda Lake, wey be veteran Democratic pollster wey work for di 2020 Biden campaign tok.

For di Republican side, Trump neva announce im running mate, even though many pipo dey tok say im go pick North Dakota Govnor Doug Burgum or Ohio Senator JD Vance.

Deep concerns dey among some Democrats about Harris strength as a presidential candidate since her 2020 party nomination bid wey no dey successful.

For dat debate she land blows on Mr Biden for one early debate but den crash out bifor di first caucuses for Iowa.

Critics tok say she struggle to define herself as a candidate, dis na one sentiment wey pipo dey tok about for a long time throughout her tenure as vice-president.

She bin no start well for di White House, sake of high-profile interview slip-ups, low approval ratings and staff turnover.

Dem bin also give her di task to oversee di administration strategy to reduce migration over di US southern border, wey increase to record levels over di last three years and till now, na major vulnerability for di campaign.

Those early stumbles make Ms Harris to dey more careful about her public appearances but many voters perceive her as ineffective and absent.

“Pipo need to know more about her, di economic issues she dey strong on and dem need to dey reminded of di role she don play,” Ms Lake tok.

Over di last year, Ms Harris leg don balance as di leading voice for di administration on abortion rights, one issue wey prove successful for Democrats during di 2022 midterm elections and one di party hope say go win back more voters in November.

As a former prosecutor wey bin handle sexual violence cases, she don relate personal stories of working wit women wey miscarry dia babies for bathroom or wey dem tell to go back for hospitals as she try to mobilise voters around di issue.

On di campaign trail, she don also look to capitalise on oda issues wey dey common wit young voters, including student debt forgiveness, climate change and gun violence.

Di White House, too, dey make effort to promote her more forcefully.

Still, she dey face strong battle to change di longstanding way voters dey tink - her approval ratings dey around 37% in polling averages wey FiveThirtyEight compile- level wey dey similar to both Mr Biden and Trump.

And unless Mr Biden imsef agree to di mounting party pressure to step down, e be like say grassroots Democratic supporters demsefs don resign to support di current ticket.

For di Essence festival in New Orleans, Iam Christian Tucker, One 41-year-old small business owner from New Orleans, say she no care, ultimately, who di nominee be.

She say she like Kamala Harris, but she no dey sure if a black female president fit win election.

“I go vote against Donald Trump pass anytin,” she tell BBC.

Greg Hovel, 67, wey attend one rally for President Biden in Madison, Wisconsin, last week, say im support Ms Harris for di 2020 primary and “im don always be her fan,” though im warn say “plenti anti-woman sentiment dey for di kontri.”

“I tink say she fit make an excellent president,” Mr Hovel tok. “But I still tink say Biden fit win.”

Kamala Harris profile

Kamala Harris bin make history for di 2020 presidential election as she become di first female, di first black, and di first Asian US vice-president.

For November 2021, she bin hold power as acting president for 75 minutes wen Mr Biden bin go for medical examination.

Dem born Ms Harris for Oakland, California, to two immigrant parents - an Indian-born mother and Jamaican-born father.

Di couple divorce wen she dey five years old and na her mama Shyamala Gopalan Harris - cancer researcher and civil rights activist mainly raise her.

She attend Howard University, one of di nation historically black colleges, wia she chook hand for political issues like apartheid in South Africa and race relations for di US.

Ms Harris start her career for di Alameda County District Attorney Office for Oakland, California. She qualify as a lawyer from di University of California, Hastings and work for various district attorney office for California, wia she rise to become California attorney general in 2010.

Dem elect her as US senator for di state for 2016.

For 2020, Ms Harris campaign to get nomination as di Democratic presidential candidate but drop out of di race for di early stage.

However, Joe Biden select her to be im running mate wen dem nominate am.

Mike Wendling contribute to dis report from Madison, Wisconsin