US election poll: Who dey lead - Harris or Trump?

Voters for di US dey go to di polls on 5 November 2024 to elect dia next president.

Di election initially dey like rematch of 2020 but e change for July 2024 wen President Joe Biden end im campaign and endorse Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Di big question now na if di result go mean a second Donald Trump term or America first woman president?

As election day dey come closer, we go dey keep track of di polls and see which kain effect di campaign get for di race to di White House.

Who dey lead di national polls?

Harris dey ahead of Trump for di national polling averages since she enta di race for di end of July, as di chart show below wit di latest figures wey dem round up to di nearest whole number.

Di two candidates bin go head to head for one debate wey dem show for television for Pennsylvania on 10 September wey just ova 67 million pipo bin tune in to watch on 10 September.

A high number of national polls wey dem bin do di week afta bin suggest say Harris performance bin help her make some small gains.

Her lead increase from 2.5 percentage points on di day of di debate to 3.3 points just ova a week later.

Dat marginal boost na mostly down to Trump numbers. Im average bin don dey rise ahead of di debate, but e bin fall by half a percentage point for di week afterwards.

You fit see dose small changes for di poll tracker chart below, wit di trend lines showing how di averages don change and di dots wey show di individual poll results for each candidate.

While dis national polls na useful guide as to how popular one candidate dey across di kontri as a whole, dem no be a necessarily accurate way to predict di result of di election.

Sake of say di US dey use an electoral college system, wia dem dey give each state a number of votes wey roughly dey in line wit di size of dia population. A total of 538 electoral college votes dey up for grabs, so any candidate need to get 270 to win.

Di US get 50 states but becos most of dem nearly always vote for di same party, in reality na just small wey both candidates get chance of winning.

Dis na di places wia dem fit win or lose di election and dem dey call dem battleground states or swing states.

Who go win di swing state polls?

As e be so, di polls dey very tight for di seven states wey dem consider as battlegrounds for dis election wit just one or two percentage points wey dey separate di candidates.

Di states include Pennsylvania, wey be di key as e get di highest number of electoral votes of di seven states and so, to win am make am easy to reach di 270 votes wey dem need.

In a sign of how di race don change since Harris become di Democratic nominee, on di day Biden comot from di race, im bin dey behind Trump by nearly five percentage points on average for dis seven states.

One tin to note be say di state polls no plenti like di national polls wey dem dey do at di moment, so we get less data to go on and evri poll get a margin of error wey mean say di numbers fit dey higher or lower.

But if you look, di trends since Harris bin join di race don help highlight di states wey be like say na stronger position, according to di polling averages.

For di chart below you go see say Harris dey lead for Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since di start of August - but di margins still small.

All di three na Democratic strongholds before Trump turn dem red on im path to winning di presidency for 2016.

Biden take dem back for 2020 and if Harris fit do di same dis year, den she go dey on course to win di election.

How dem dey create dis averages?

Di figures wey we use for di graphics above na averages wey polling analysis website 538 create. E dey part of American news network ABC News.

To create dem, 538 dey collect data from individual polls wey dem dey do nationally and for battleground states by plenti polling companies.

As part of dia quality control, 538 only include polls from companies wey meet certain criteria, like to dey transparent about how many pipo dem poll, wen dem do di poll and how dem bin conduct di poll (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).

You can read more about the 538 methodology here.

We fit trust di polls?

For di moment, di polls suggest say Kamala Harris and Donald Trump dey within a couple of percentage points of each oda both nationally and for battleground states.

Wen di race dey close, e dey veri hard to predict winners.

Polls underestimate support for Trump for both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies go try to fix dat problem, including how to make dia results show di make-up of di voting population.

Dose adjustments dey difficult to get right and pollsters still get to make educated guesses about oda factors like who go actually turn up to vote on 5 November.

Mike Hills and Libby Rogers na im write and produce am. Design by Joy Roxas.