How di Ukraine War fit end for 2025

"I gatz tok say di situation dey change dramatically," Russia President Vladimir Putin declare for im end-of-year news conference for 19 December.

"Movement dey along di entire front line. Evri day."

For eastern Ukraine, Moscow war machine dey gradually churn mile by mile through di wide open fields of di Donbas, and envelope and overwhelm villages and towns.

Some civilians dey run comot bifor di war reach dem. Odas dey wait until di shell start around dem bifor dem pack di belongings dem fit carry and board trains and buses to safety further west.

Russia dey gain ground more quickly dan at anytime since dem launch dia full-scale invasion for February 2022, despite Kyiv impressive record of well-publicised asymmetric attacks against dia powerful neighbour.

As di invasion dey reach di end of im third year, at estimated cost of one million pipo, wey dey killed or wounded, Ukraine appear to dey lose.

Meanwhile, for Washington, di unpredictable Donald Trump, not famous for im love of Ukraine or dia leader, dey about to take ova for White House.

E dey feel like inflection point. But 2025 fit really be di year wen dis devastating European conflict go finally come to a close - and if so, wetin di endgame fit look like?

'Tok of negotiations na illusion'

Trump promise to end di conflict within 24 hours of taking office na boasting, but e dey come from a man wey don clearly lose patience wit di war and America costly involvement.

"Di numbers of dead young soldiers wey dey lie on di fields all ova di place dey deeply shocking," e tok for early December 2024. "E dey crazy wetin dey take place."

But di incoming US administration dey face twin challenges, according to Michael Kofman, senior fellow at di Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"First, dem go inherit a war on a veri negative trajectory, witout ogbonge amount of time to stabilise di situation," e tok for December. "Second, dem go inherit am witout clear theory of success."

Di president-elect offer some clues during recent interviews about how im intend to approach di war.

E tell Time Magazine say im disagree well well wit di Biden administration decision, for November, to allow Ukraine to fire US-supplied long-range missiles at targets inside Russia.

"We just dey escalate dis war and make am worse," e tok.

On 8 December, NBC News ask am if Ukraine gatz prepare for less aid.

"Possibly," e reply. "Probably, sure."

But to dose wey dey fear say America new leader fit walk away from Ukraine, e offer hints of reassurance. "You no fit reach agreement if you abandon, in my opinion," e tok.

Di truth na: Trump intentions dey far from clear.

And for now, Ukrainian officials reject all tok of pressure, or di suggestion say Trump arrival necessarily mean peace toks dey come.

"A lot of tok dey about negotiations, but na illusion," advisor to head of President Zelensky office Mykhailo Podolyak tok.

"No negotiation process fit take place becos Russia neva dey made to pay a high enough price for dis war."

Zelensky 'smart strategy exercise'

For all Kyiv misgivings about negotiating while Russian forces continue dia advance for di east, e dey clear say President Zelensky dey anxious to position imsef as di sort of man Trump fit do business wit.

Di Ukrainian leader bin dey quick to congratulate Trump on im election victory and waste little time sending senior officials to meet di president-elect team.

Wit di help of France President Emmanuel Macron, Zelensky also secure a meeting wit Trump wen di two men visit Paris for di reopening of Notre Dame cathedral.

"Wetin we dey see now na veri smart strategy exercise by President Zelensky," im former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba tell di US Council on Foreign Relations earlier dis month.

Zelensky, e say, bin dey "signal constructiveness and readiness to engage wit President Trump".

Wit little obvious sign say di Kremlin dey make similar gestures, di goment for Kyiv dey clearly try to get ahead of di game.

"Becose Trump neva fully explain how e go go about am, Ukrainians dey try to give am some ideas wey e fit present as im own," head of di Ukraine Forum at Chatham House Orysia Lutsevych tok.

"Dem know how to work wit dat ego."

Di Victory Plan: possible endgames

Even bifor di US election, signs bin dey say Zelensky bin dey look for ways to bolster Ukraine appeal as a future partner for a president-elect like Trump wey dey transactional and also reluctant to continue underwriting wider European security.

Apart of im "Victory Plan", wey im unveil for October, Zelensky suggest say di battle-hardened Ukrainian troops fit replace US forces for Europe afta di war wit Russia end. And e offer di prospect of joint investments to exploit Ukraine natural resources, including uranium, graphite and lithium.

Such strategic resources, Zelensky warn, "go either strengthen Russia or Ukraine and di democratic world".

But oda elements of di Ukrainian leader Victory Plan - Nato membership and dia call for a "comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" - be like say Kyiv allies dey lukewarm about am.

Nato membership in particular still remain as one sticking point, as e don dey since bifor Russian full-scale invasion bin start.

For Kyiv, na di only way to guarantee di survival of di kontri for future against dia major enemy wey wan sit down ontop Ukraine head by all means.

But despite say dem bin declare last July say Ukraine bin dey on "irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including Nato membership" di alliance dey divided wit di US and Germany wey no dey in favour to invite dem.

President Zelensky don indicate say if dem extend offer of membership to di whole kontri, within di internationally-recognised borders of Ukraine, im go dey willing to accept say e go apply, initially, only territory wey dey under Kyiv control.

Na wetin im tell Sky News for November, say fit end di "hot stage" of di war, and allow a diplomatic process to address di question of Ukraine final borders.

But im tok say nobody don make dis kain offer to dem.

Kyiv shaky position

If no be Nato, dem na wetin? Wit di possibility of di peace tok-tok wey Trump go lead, wey don dey near and Ukraine wey don dey lose ground for di battlefield. Di international debate dey all about to push up di shaky-shaky position of Kyiv.

"E dey critical to get strong, legal and practical guarantees," Andriy Yermak, head of President Zelensky office tell Ukraine Public broadcaster on 12 December.

Im tok say Ukraine recent past don leave bitter legacy. "Unfortunately, from our experience, all di guarantees wey we bin get bifor no result in any security."

Witout any concrete mechanism wey dey like di sort of collective defence concept wey dey inside Article 5 of Nato founding treaty, observers dey fear say notin go dey again to stop Russia from attacking Ukraine again.

"Zelensky understand say im no fit get naked ceasefire just like dat," Orysia Lutsevych tok.

" E get to be a ceasefire plus. E go be suicide for Zelensky just to accept a ceasefire and make im no get any answer of how dem go protect Ukraine."

For European policy forums, experts don dey look for ways wey Europe fit help to carry dis responsibility.

Ideas don include di deployment of peacekeepers for Ukraine (one proposal wey first come out last February by Macron), or dem fit involve di British-led Joint Expeditionary Force, wey dey pull forces togeda from eight Nordic and Baltic kontris, plus di Netherlands.

But Kofman no too dey sure. "Security guarantees wey no get di United States as part of dem as one of di guarantors be like donut wey dey miss giant for di middle of am ."

Na di view wey Kyiv dey echo.

"Anoda alternative dey? No alternatives today," Na wetin Mr Podolyak tok.

Pieces of paper, like di 1994 Budapest Memorandum (about Ukraine post-Soviet borders) or 2014-15 Minsk agreements (wey bin try to end di Donbas War) dey worthless, im argue, witout di added threat of military deterrence.

"Russia gatz understand say as soon as dem start aggression, dem go receive a significant number of strikes in response," im tok.

Britain, Biden and di role of di West

As agreement on Ukraine long term future neva dey, dia allies dey do anytin wey dem fit do to boost dia defence.

Earlier for December, Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte, tok say dem bin look "evritin", including di supply of additional air defence systems, as part of how to protect di energy infrastructure wey don already spoil for di kontri from any renewed wave of coordinated Russian missile and drone attacks.

As Ukraine dey continue to experience severe shortages of manpower, di UK Defence Secretary John Healey say di goment fit dey willing to send British troops to Ukraine to help wit training.

For dia part, e be like say di Biden administration wey dey comot from power dey determined to deliver as much congressionally approved military assistance as dem fit to Ukraine bifor dem go comot from office, although reports suggest say dem fit no get enough time to send evritin.

On 21 December tori bin tok say Trump fit continue to supply military aid to Ukraine, but im go demand make Nato members dramatically increase dia defence spending.

Kyiv allies bin don also continue to push up irreversible sanctions on Moscow, wit di hope say Russia war-time economy, wey bin don prove stubbornly resilient, fit finally break.

"Deep frustration say di sanctions neva scata di Russian economy beyond repair dey," na wetin one US congressional source wey no want reveal im identity tok.

Afta plenti rounds of sanctions (fifteen from di EU alone), goment officials don tire to predict dia successful impact.

But recent indicators dey increasingly alarming for di Kremlin. Wit interest rates wey dey 23%, inflation wey dey run above 9%, rouble wey dey fall and growth wey dey expected to slow dramatically for 2025, di strains on Russia economy neva even dey serious well-well.

Putin dey put on a brave face. "Di sanctions dey get effect," na wetin im tok for during im end-of-year news conference, "but dem no dey of key importance."

Along wit Russia staggering losses for di battlefield – western officials estimate say Moscow dey lose an average of 1,500 men, wey dem don kill and wound, evri day – di cost of dis war fit still drive Putin to negotiate.

But how much more territory wey Ukraine don lose - and how many more pipo wey go don die - by di time dem go reach dat point?