Wetin Trump victory fit mean for Nigeria?

Donald Trump don win a historic second term as president, as e defeat di Democratic Party presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

For one victory speech for Florida, e say American pipo don give am "unprecedent and powerful mandate".

“Dis go truly be di golden age of America,” e promise di cheering crowd for im election night rally for West Palm Beach, Florida.

Donald Trump return to di White House dey set to reshape US foreign policy, as e promise radical shifts on multiple fronts as war and uncertainty grip some parts of di world.

During im campaign, Trump bin make broad policy pledges based on principles of non-interventionism and trade protectionism - or as e put am “America First”.

As e don win so, sabi pesin breakdown wetin im 'America First' pledge fit mean for Nigeria.

'America First'

Analyst wey follow BBC Pidgin tok say, e fit mean say, make oda kontris go take care of themselves in terms of funding, support, and dia own security.

Africa fit no be major focus for di US presidential candidates during dia campaign for di election, but di election na one thing wey dey di minds of many pipo across di continent.

Opinions bin dey divided on who go win di hotly contested race, especially wit di potential impact of US foreign policy on Africa.

From Ethiopia to Egypt, South Africa to Nigeria, African leaders don congratulate Donald Trump shortly afta e dey clear say na im go win di election.

Nigeria President Bola Tinubu for im congratulatory message tok say im look forward to “strengthening di ties between Nigeria and di United States for di middle of di complex challenges and opportunities of di contemporary world.

“Togeda, we fit foster economic cooperation, promote pace, and address global challenges wey dey affect our citizens,” Tinubu add.

During im first term, Oga Trump no visit Africa, dis make pipo question im limited engagement wit di continent.

Also for 2018, e allegedly call nations on di continent "Shitholes" wen lawmakers bin visit am to discuss one bipartisan proposal wey go impose new restrictions on immigration.

But e deny say im use di alleged language.

However, analysts hope say a second term go give am opportunity to strengthen U.S. policy on African issues like health, trade, and security.

From im comments during di run up to di election and im track record for office from 2017 to 2021, dis na some things wey Trump victory fit mean for Nigeria, and Africa at large.

Deport undocumented migrants

Under a Trump goment, Nigeria go expect tough anti-immigration policies wey dey similar to wetin e promote during im first term.

Donald Trump, during im campaign bin promise to carry out di biggest mass deportation of pipo wey no get legal permission to dey for di United States.

Di immigration mata dey di top of im list as e be for 2016 wen “Build di wall” be im signature slogan.

E vow to complete di building of one wall for di border US share wit Mexico wey im start during im first presidency.

Di number of crossings for di US southern border hit record levels for di end of last year during di Biden-Harris administration, bifor e fal for 2024.

Also, children of undocumented residents no longer go dey eligible for citizenship under anoda Trump policy.

Prof. Toba Alabi, Professor for di Department of Political Science, Nigerian Defence Academy for di light of Oga Trump victory say, Nigerians plus oda Africans wey dey America illegally get every reason to dey very worried.

E say Trump policy statement on immigration na for Africans to stay at home, develop your kontri and stay there as America na for di Americans.

Economy

Prof. Alabi dey of di position say wit di victory of Donald Trump as America president, e go impact di third world kontris as di interest of di western world dey different with dat of di third world kontris, wey Nigeria fall under.

E say for instance, if Nigeria dey produce cars, TV sets, automobiles and oda items, who go buy cars for oda parts of di world. "Di development of di third world dey inversely related to di development of di west," Prof. Toba add.

Di political scientist add say those wey dey tok of Brics fit later regret am, as no oda kontri go help you develop your own kontri.

E add say make Nigerians no expect much from Trump presidency as e no rate Africa.

"Di International financial institutions wey African kontris dey run go like di IMF and di world bank na di extension of western imperialism. Dem no fit help any African kontri develop. Look dia very serious conditions like devaluation of your kontri, removal of subsidy on essential commodities and privatisation of your public corporations, wetin dem dey do na to extend kontri poverty," Prof. Alabi tok.

For 2023, America say dem don invest more dan $22bn for Africa since Biden enta power.

For instance, dia investment on Lobito Corridor - one rail line wey stretch through Angola, di Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia wey dem go dey use transport critical raw materials.

But concerns dey say Trump fit roll back on dis investment and trade.

Di African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), wey don enable eligible African countries to export some of dia produce to di US without paying taxes since 2000, one key source of concern.

During im previous administration, Trump bin tok say dem no go renew di scheme wen e expire for 2025.

And during im 2024 campaign, e bin pledge to implement a universal 10% income tariff on all foreign-made goods. Dis go make imported goods more expensive, so e dey likely say African exporters go sell less of dia produce for di large US market.

Plenty commentators for South Africa - one of di largest exporters under di Agoa agreement - don predict say cutting Agoa fit get significant impact on di economy.

For 2018, di Trump administration bin unveil Prosper Africa - one initiative wey dey assist US companies wey wan invest for Africa - and di Development Finance Corporation (DFC), wey dey fund development projects for Africa and around di world.

Biden no stop these programnmes wen e take ova, and di DFC say so far, dem don invest more dan $10bn (£8bn) for Africa.

As China na still major force for Africa, plus say na Trump bin introduce these policies himself, e go likely think twice bifor e stop dem.

Trade

Di world dey try reason how serious Trump dey about taxing all di imports wey dey enta di US, from friend and foe.

No be just individual kontris, like China, or sectors, like washing machines, but everything, from everywhere.

During di campaign, e bin threaten tariffs in all directions to achieve all manner of diplomatic aims, from containing China, to protecting di role of di dollar.

Tariff na "di most beautiful world for di dictionary", e tok. Na weapon, a source of leverage, e intend to use.

E don propose new 10-20% tariffs on most foreign goods wit imports from China wey go be di largest at 60%.

Trump say dis na part of im attempt to promote homegrown manufacturers and stop outsourcing.

Meanwhile, Oga Trump bin promise to expand US energy production, and open areas like di Arctic wilderness to oil drilling, wey e argue say go lower energy costs.

Aid

Africa dey get most of dia aid from di US, wey say dem don donate almost $3.7bn for dis financial year.

But Trump last administration bin repeatedly make proposals to slash foreign aid worldwide, according to reports. Congress - where foreign aid bin get bipartisan support – bin reject these cuts.

If to say dem implement these cuts, "traditional US policies wit respect to health, democracy promotion, and security assistance in Africa for dey very bad," di Council on Foreign Relations, one Washington think-tank tok.

Concerns dey say Trump fit close Pepfar, one long-running US initiative wey don put huge sums into fighting HIV for Africa.

Last year, Republican lawmakers bin mount plenty opposition to Pepfar, as dem allege say di programme dey promote abortion services. Dem grant am short-term extension until March next year, but Trump - known for being anti-abortion - fit shut di door on dis aid.

Security and conflict

While Trump bin dey away from presidency, Russia bin step up dia presence for Africa.

One of di main ways dem do dis na by providing troops and arms to kontris wey jihadist militants like Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso touch.

Russia foothold for Africa dey worry US – di two na istoric rivals.

Trump go offer support to African kontris in attempt to push Russia out?

"Even though di national security architecture for di United States see Russia as a threat, Trump personally neva act as if e see Russia as a threat," Oga Moore tell BBC.

Speculation dey say Trump get close relationship wit Russian President Vladimir Putin pass wetin e dey let pipo know.

However, Trump in di past bin help Nigeria fight Boko Haram, one group of Islamist militants wey don stress di West African kontrifor 15 years.

"During [former President Barack] Obama tenure, Nigerian-Americans bin support am well-well, yet wen Nigeria ask am for arms, e no gree. Wen our communities for northern Nigeria bin dey under Boko Haram attack, na Trump later approve di purchase of Tucano jets, wey allow us to strengthen our defences," former lawmaker Ehiozuwa Johnson Agbonayinmma tell one Nigerian news outlet di Vanguard.

Di issue of Sudan civil war wey don dey go on for 18 months and don lead to di death of tens of thousands of pipo also dey ground.

"Trump dey very transactional," Oga Moore tok. "I' doubt if Trump administration go care more about wetin dey happun for Sudan pass how Biden administration take do."

LGBTQ+

Nigeria neva come to terms wit di idea of same sex relations. Kontri pipo believe say dia democracy neva strong reach plus authorities no get respect for human rights.

Although Trump no too touch on di subject of LGBTQ during im campaign but for im first term as US president, e say im no agree wit marriage between people of the di same sex.

Also for one video where e take dey outline im 2024 presidential agenda, Trump bin describe gender-affirming care as "chemical, physical, and emotional mutilation" of youth and e promise to end all "programs wey dey promote di concept of sex and gender transition at any age."