Yakin Ukraine: Yawan kudaden da Rasha ke kashewa a yakin

Akan rasa shawo kan yaƙi idan har abubuwa ba su tafi yadda aka tsara ba.

Ko da yake da wahala a iya gane abin da ke cikin zuciyar Vladimir Putin ba lokacin da ya abka wa Ukraine da yaƙi a ranar 24 ga watan Fabrairu, masana da dama sun yi imanin cewa yana hasashen samun nasara cikin ƴan kwanaki.

Fiye da wata ɗaya yanzu, rikicin ya rikiɗe ya koma yaƙi, inda Rasha ke amfani da dubaru da ƙoƙarin murƙushe Ukraine, a cewar masu sharhi kan sojin Amurka Benjamin Johnson da Tyson Wetzel da kuma J.B. Barranco.

A rubutun da suka yi a majalisar Atlantika sun ce: "mun yi nazari cewa da ala Rasha za ta iya shiga yaƙin da ba ta shirya ba, jefa Ukraine cikin yunwa toshe mashigin Bahar Rum tare da haifar da yunwa yayin da manomar Ukraine ba za su iya yin girbi ba.

Amma yaƙin zai haifar da farashi mai tsada ga Rasha, Tambayar ita ce: nawa?

'Kasuwanci mai tsada'

Ed Arnold, wani jami'in bincike kan Tsaron Turai a Birtaniya na cibiyar think-tank ta Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), ya shaida wa BBC cewa "ɗorewar hidima da ayyukan soji abu ne mai tsada, musamman lokacin da sojoji ke da nisa da manyan sansanoninsu."

"Dole ne a yi tanadin harsasai da man fetur don a makaman yaƙi da abinci don ciyar da sojoji."

Akwai hujjoji da dama da ke nuna matsaloli na shirin Rasha a yaƙinta da Ukraine - musamman yadda ake ganin ana mantawa da motocin yaƙi na Rasha da suka lalace a fagen daga.

"Ba su shirya ba saboda watakila sun yi tunanin wannan aikin za a kammala shi ne cikin ƴan kwanaki," in ji Arnold

James Stavridis, tsohon sojin ruwa na Amurka kuma babban malami a tsangayar nazarin shari'a da diflomasiyya a jami'ar Tufts, ya ce kuɗaɗe na ƙaruwa yayin da hanyoyin samun kudin Rasha bushewa.

Ko da yake ƙasar tana cikin ƙasashe masu kuɗaɗen ajiya na ƙasashen waje (kusan dala biliyan 600), yawancin waɗannan kuɗin an toshe su a bankunan ƙasashen yammaci saboda takunkuman tattalin arziki.

Nawa ne Rasha ke kashewa a yaƙi?

A cewar cibiyar farfaɗo da tattalin arziki, da ta ƙunshi masana tattalin arziki da masu bayar da shawara a gwamnatin Ukraine, kwanaki 23 na farkon mamayar Rasha ta kashe aƙalla dala biliyan 19.9 a ɓangaren sojoji kawai.

Sun ƙiyasta cewa Kremlin ta yi hasarar dala biliyan tara na makaman da aka lalata.

Za a iya ƙara wannan da kuɗaɗen da aka kashe wajen harba makamai masu linzami da kuma rasa alƙalumman ci gaba na (GDP) sama da shekara 40 (Ta la'akari da hasarar da aka samu ta mutane)

Ukraine ta yi ikirari a ranar 19 ga Maris cewa sama da sojojin Rasha 14,400 aka kashe a yaƙin.

Jimillar abin da aka kashe akwai buƙatar ya ƙunshi kuɗin kwashewa da na kula da lafiyar sojojin da aka raunata da kuɗin sayen makamai da mai da ciyar da sojoji da sauransu.

Babu ɗaya daga cikin wanan ƙiyasin da za a iya tantancewa. Masanan da BBC ta tuntuɓa suna taka-tsan-tsan kan yanayin rashin tabbar, ko da yake sun amince cewa kula da makaman yaƙi abu ne mai cin kuɗi.

Yaushe kuɗin Rasha zai kare?

Ya danganta ne da yadda tasirin takunkumin tattalin arzikin kasashen Yamma zai kasance.

Muhimmin abu kuma, ya dogara ne kan ko kasashen Turai za su iya hana shigo da iskar gas daga Rasha. Wannan babban ƙalubale ne yayin da Rasha ke samar da kusan kashi 40 na iskar gas da ƙasashen EU ke shigowa da su.

Haka kuma babu tabbas ko cire bankunan Rasha daga tsarin biyan kuɗi na SWIFT, wanda ke bayar da tura kuɗi a ƙasashen waje, za a fadaɗa, wanda zai kasance Putin ba shi da wata hanyar samun biyan shi kuɗi daga waje.

Daga ƙarshe, yadda za a auna arzikin Rasha ya dogara ne da ƙawayenta, musamman ma ɗaya daga cikinsu.

Tasirin China

Kwararru sun jaddada ƙarfin ƙasar China zai iya yin tasiri a rikici amma ba a cimma matsaya kan rawar da za ta taka a yaƙin ba.

Beijing ta nuna matukar damuwa game da lamarin, amma ta ci gaba da kiran mamayar a matsayin "farmakin soji".

Kuma mataimakin ministan harakokin waje Le Yucheng a ranar 19 ga Maris ya ce takunkuman ƙasashen waje "mafi girma da ba su dace ba"

Ya ƙara da cewa matakan na hana ƴan Rasha damar samun ƙadarorinsu na ƙasashen waje "ba wani dalili."

"Tarihi ya nuna cewa lokaci da kuma takunkumai ba za su yi magance matsalaolin ba. Takunkuman za su yi illa ne kawai ga mutanen da ba su ji ba su gani ba da yin tasiri ga tattalin arziki da tsarin kuɗi... kuma wanda zai ƙara muni ga tattalin arzikin duniya," in ji Le.

Renaud Foucart, babban malami a jami'ar Lancaster da ke Birtaniya, ya ce kasar China za ta iya tabbatar da muhimmanci ga Rasha, idan aka yi la'akar fatan Rasha na dogon lokaci.

"Idan aka ci gaba da sanya takunkumi, za a yanke Rasha daga manyan abokan cinikinta, ban da China da Belarus," in ji Foucart.

Maxim Mironov, Farfesa a makarantar kasuwanci ta IE Business School, a Spain, wannan dogaron ba za a ruruta shi ba.

"China za ta ci gaba da sayen kayayyakin Rasha cikin sauƙi tare da sayar da kayayyaki ga Rasha cikin tsada," kamar yadda ya shaida wa BBC.

"China za ta ɗauki Rasha a matsayin wani yanki na mulkin mallaka. China ita ce za ta yi nasara a wannan yaƙin."

Faɗuwar tattalin arziki

Moscow ta jaddada cewa takunkuman ƙasashen yammacin ba zai mayar da Rasha saniyar ware ba.

Mai magana da yawun gwamnatin Kremlin Dmitry Peskov ya shaida wa ƴan jarida a ranar 5 ga watan Maris: "Duniya ta fi ƙarfin Turai da Amurka su mayar da wasu ƙasashe saniyar warew, musamman babbar ƙasa kamar Rasha."

Amma kudin Rasha, rubble ta faɗi, kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari ta kasance a rufe, hauhawan farashin kayayyaki ya ƙaru kuma kuɗin ruwa ya lunka. Sama da kamfanonin ƙasashen waje 400 suka fice daga ƙasar.

Wasu sun ƙiyasta cewa tattalin arziki zai faɗi da kashi 7 zuwa 15 a bana kuma ana fargabar gwamnatin Rasha za ta iya gaza biyan bashin da ake binta.

"Masana'antun Rasha sun tsaya cak," in ji Mirovov

Foucart ya ce abubuwa biyu za su iya tantance ko tsadar yaƙin zai yi wa Putin yawa a makwanni masu yawa.

Na farko shi ne ko sojojin Rasha da masana'antu za su tsira ba tare da wani taimako ba na fasaha daga ƙasashen yammaci.

Na biyu kuma, idan tasirin takunkuman zai iya sauya ra'ayin jama'a game da mutum ɗaya a Kremlin.