Me ya faru da IS ta ɓalɓalce a 2023?

Ƙungiyar masu iƙirarin jihadi ta IS, wadda ta taɓa kama mamaken yanki tun daga arewa maso gabashin Siriya, har zuwa arewacin Iraƙi, ta yi ta nuna alamomi na samun gagarumin koma-baya, a hare-haren da ta kai cikin shekara ta 2023, kamar yadda alƙaluman da Sashen Bibiyar Al'amura na BBC ya tattara, suka nuna.

Harkokin IS sun ragu da fiye da rabi, idan an kwatanta da bara, haka kuma shugabancin ƙungiyar ya gamu da ɗumbin asara.

Reshen ƙungiyar IS na ƙasar Masar ya yi lif a bana, inda ya bi sahun rassanta da alƙadarinsu ya karye kamar na Libya da na Yemen. A lokaci guda, reshenta na Afghanistan ya yi iƙirarin ɗaukan alhaki na ɗan wani adadi ƙalilan cikin hare-haren da ta ce ta kai a bara.

Ƙungiyar shiyyar Afirka, ita ma ta yi iƙirarin kai hare-hare ƙalilan, in ban da reshenta na Sahel, wanda ke bunƙasa a gabashin Mali, da ya yi iƙirarin kai miyagun hare-hare a Nijar da kuma mayar da hankali wajen ayyukan farfaganda.

Me alƙaluma suke faɗa mana?

IS ta yi iƙirarin kai jimillar hare-hare 838 a duk faɗin duniya a 2023, ban da watan Disamba, idan aka kwatanta da hare-hare 1,811 a tsawon irin wannan lokaci cikin shekarar da ta wuce bara, abin da ke nuna raguwar hare-haren da kashi 53%.

Bincike da ƙalailaice alƙaluman hare-haren, sun dogara ne a kan iƙirarin da jami'an IS da kansu suka yi, sai saƙonni da farfaganda da kuma ayyuka na magoya bayan ƙungiyar. Don haka, mai yiwuwa ne an zuzuta alƙaluman a wasu lokuta ko kuma an shashantar da girman lamari.

Duka alƙaluman da aka buga misali da su a shekara ta 2023 na wakiltar hare-haren da aka kai ne daga ranar 1 ga watan Janairu zuwa 30 ga watan Nuwamba.

Me muka sani game da hare-haren IS?

A lokacin da take kan ganiyarta, ƙungiyar ta mallaki maka-makan yankuna a Siriya da Iraƙi, sai dai a shekarar 2017, ta yi asarar kashi 95% na yankunan da ke ƙarƙashin ikonta.

A 2019, wata gamayyar ƙawancen ƙasashen duniya, ƙarƙashin jagorancin Amurka da Ƙurdawa 'yan sa-kai sun ƙwace iko da ƙauyen Baghuz, tungar ƙarshe da ke hannun mayaƙan IS masu iƙirarin jihadi a Siriya.

Matakin kuma ya share fage ga jerin hare-haren da aka yi galaba lansu, waɗanda suka kai ga koma-bayan ƙungiyar gaba ɗaya.

Tun daga lokacin ne, ƙungiyar IS ta mayar da hankali wajen bunƙasa rassanta na Afirka, daidai lokacin da take son karkatar da hankali daga kayen da ta sha a Gabas ta Tsakiya.

Ƙungiyar har yanzu tana gudanar da harkokin ta-da-ƙayar-baya a Iraƙi da Siriya da kuma kula da harkokin cibiyoyinta aƙalla fiye da gomamasu alaƙa da rassan da ke nahiyar Asiya da Afirka da kuma Gabas ta Tsakiya, sai dai ana iya fahimtar gagarumin koma-baya da suka samu a harkokin nasu.

A watan Maris, masu iƙirarin jihadin na IS sun nemi kafa hujjar raguwar hare-harensu inda suka ce ƙungiyar ba ta fitowa bainar jama'a tana ɗaukar alhakin duk hare-haren da ta kai, sau da yawa saboda dalilai na tsaro.

Reshen IS mai mazauni a Sinai na ƙasar Masar bai yi iƙirarin kai wasu hare-hare ba a bana, idan an kwatanta da 102 da ya ƙaddamar a bara – ciki har da farmakin da ya kai a kusa da Mashigar ruwan Suez a ƙarshen shekarar - abin da ke nuna dakarun sojin Masar sun yi mata wawar mahangurɓar da ta kasa tashi.

Hare-haren da reshen IS da ake kira wai na Lardin Khorasan (ISKP) a Afghanistan su ma sun ragu, yayin da ƙungiyar ta ɗauki alhakin kai hari 20 a 2023, idan an kwatanta da 145 na bara da kuma 293 da ta kai a shekra ta 2021, shekarar da Taliban ta koma kan mulki.

Duk da yake an samu raguwar yawan hare-haren, amma dai 'yan waɗanda ta kai sun haddasa ɗumbin mace-mace. A Yuli, ƙungiyar IS reshen Khorasan ya ɗauki alhakin kai wani harin ƙunar baƙin wake na bam a wurin wani gangamin siyasa na jam'iyyar masu tsananin kishin Musulunci ta Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl a arewa maso yammacin Pakistan, inda aka kashe aƙalla mutum 60.

A Iraƙi, IS ta yi iƙirarin kai jimillar hare-hare 141 a 2023, idan an kwatanta da 401 a tsawon irin wannan lokaci na bara, abin da ke nuna raguwa da kashi 65%.

Ƙungiyar ta yi iƙirarin kai hari 112 a Siriya bana, ƙasa daga 292 na bara.

Shin IS bunƙasa take yi a Afirka?

Tun bayan rasa ƙauyen Baghuz a 2019, IS ta karkata farfagandarta ne kan ƙudurorinta na “faɗaɗawa” da “samun nasarori” a yankin Kudu da Hamadar Sahara, inda take da rassa guda biyar: Da na Lardin Afirka ta Yamma wanda ya fi mai da hankali ga Najeriya (ISWAP), da na Lardin Tsakiyar Afirka da ke mayar da hankali ga Jamhuriyar Dimokraɗiyyar Kongo, wanda a wasu lokuta yake kai hare-hare har cikin ƙasar Uganda, akwai kuma reshenta na Sahel da reshen ƙasar Mozambiqueda kuma reshen Somaliya.

Reshe mafi kazar-kazar shi ne ISWAP, wanda akasari yake gudanar da harkoki a arewa maso gabashin Najeriya da kuma zagayen yankin Tafkin Chadi, amma ko shi ɗin ma hare-harensa sun ragu a 2023. A 2022, ƙungiyar ta yi iƙirarin kai hare-hare guda 470 amma a 2023, hari 266 ta yi iƙirarin kai wa.

Rassan ƙungiyar na Lardin Tsakiyar Afirka da na Mozambique su ma sun yi iƙirarin hare-hare ƙalilan, ko da yake sun ci gaba da babbar barazana. Dukkansu sun ci gaba da iƙirarin kai hare-hare a kan dakarun cikin gida na ƙasashen yankin da kuma a kan fararen hula waɗanda suka zama karkatacciyar kuka, kamar ƙauyukan Kiristoci.

IS ta Lardin Tsakiyar Afirka ma ya yi iƙirarin kai hare-hare guda huɗu bana a Uganda, a ɗaya daga ciki an kashe 'yan yawon shaƙatawa biyu da mai yi musu jagora, sai dai ba ta ɗauki alhakin mummunan harin watan Yuni da aka kai kan wata makarantar sakandire da ke yammacin Uganda ba, wanda akasari ake ɗora alhakin kanta.

Gaba ɗaya dai, hare-haren da IS ta yi iƙirarin rassanta na Kudu da Hamadar Sahara sun kai, sun ragu zuwa 508 a 2023 daga jimillar 847 a shekarar da ta gabata. Sai dai, har yanzu wannan ɗin shi ne ya kasance kashi 60% na ɗaukacin hare-haren da ta kai a faɗin duniya - kaso mafi girma da aka taɓa samu a Afirka zuwa yau.

A ina ayyukan IS ke girmama?

A cewar alƙaluman da Sashen Bibiyar Al'amura na BBC ya tattara, rassan IS na yankin Sahel da kuma na Philippines sun fi hada-hada a wannan shekara.

An ba da rahoto IS na faɗaɗa harkokinta a gabashin Mali, kusa da kan iyakar Nijar tun cikin watan Afrilu. Bunƙasar ƙungiyar a can na zuwa ne, a daidai lokacin da yamutsin shugabanci da na tsaro ke addabar ƙasashen Sahel, wanda kuma masu tsattsauran ra'ayi ke alla-alla su je su ci gajiya.

Tsakanin watan Yuli zuwa Oktoba, IS ta fitar da rahotanni da hotunan da ke nuna “ayyukan sojoji” da ƙungiyar ke cewa ta aiwatar daga watan Mayu ta hanyar “yaƙi da aikata laifuka” da kuma tabbatar da "adalci”.

Harkokin farfagandarsu ga alama suna son nuna ƙoƙarin bunƙasa shari'ar Musulunci a yankunan kan iyaka tsakanin Mali da Nijar, inda ta kasance a matsayin wata ƙaramar gwamnati mai iko.

A Nijar, bayan juyin mulkin watan Yuli, IS ta yi iƙirarin kai jerin hare-hare da suka haddasa ɗumbin mace-mace kan dakarun sojin ƙasar da ke Afirka ta Yamma. Ɗaya daga ciki a farkon watan Oktoba, an ba da rahoton ya yi sanadin kashe sojoji kimanin 60, abin da ya sa har gwamnatin Nijar ta ayyana makokin ƙasa na tsawon kwana uku.

Tun daga 2014, IS ke karɓar caffa daga ƙungiyoyin 'yan ta-da-ƙayar-baya a can ma kudu maso gabashin Asiya. Rassan ƙungiyar a yankin, galibi sun fi ƙarfi a kan tsaunukan da ke kudancin Philippines, inda ake da rinjayen Musulmai a ƙasar da Kiristoci suka fi yawa.

Tun cikin watan Yuli kuma, rassan ƙungiyar sun yi iƙirarin kai hare-hare 20 a wannan shekara, idan an kwatanta da bakwai da suka kai a 2022.

Haka zalika IS ta ɗauki alhakin kai hari a kan masu taron ibada na Cocin Katolika a kudancin Philippines ranar 3 ga watan Disamba a gaban lokacin da ƙididdigarmu ta duba, kuma ta yi kiran ɗaukar ma'aikata a yankin.

Me muka sani game da shugabannin IS?

Ƙungiyar a baya-bayan nan ta yi asarar ɗumbin jami'ai a cikin shugabanninta.

IS ta rasa shugabanninta guda uku a tsawon abin da, da kaɗan ya dara shekara ɗaya, dukkansu kuma an kashe su ne a Siriya daga watan Fabrairun 2022 zuwa Afrilun 2023.

Bayan mutuwar Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi a wani samamen Amurka na ranar 27 ga watan Oktoban 2019, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi ya karɓi ragamar shugabanci, daga shi kuma sai Abu al-Hasan al-Qurashi sannan sai Abu al-Hussein al-Qurashi.

Shugabannin ba su da wata dangantaka ta jini - sunan “al-Qurashi” laƙabi ne kawai da ke nuna alaƙa da ƙabilar Annabi Muhammadu ta Quraishi da ke birnin Makka.

Tun bayan da ƙungiyar ta ayyana kafa “daular kalifanci” a watan Yunin 2014, ta ci gaba da kiran duk wani shugabanta da laƙabin “kalifa”, na farkonsu shi ne al-Baghdadi.

A watan Agustan 2023, IS ta gabatar da wani sabon jagoranta, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, sai dai abin da aka sani game da kaɗan ne kuma har yanzu bai gabatar da wani saƙo a matsayinsa na shugaba ba.

IS ta kuma rasa wasu daga cikin manya-manyan kwamandojinta, musamman a Siriya da Iraqi, a kasari kuma sanadin hare-haren dakarun ƙawance da Amurka ke jagoranta.

A watan Agusta, rundunar sojin Mozambique ta ce ta kashe shugaban IS na yankin, sai dai ƙungiyar ba ta cika cewa ko da uffan ba a kan irin waɗannan kashe-kashe, in ban da a kan “kalifa” da kuma mai magana da yawunta.

Ko akwai wani tasiri daga yaƙin Gaza?

An yi imani matakan sojoji da ƙasashe ke ɗauka a kan IS da kuma tserereniya daga ƙungiyoyi masu hamayya da ita a wasu ƙasashe ciki har Somaliya da yankin Sahel da kuma a yankin Tafkin Chadi da Siriya na cikin abubuwan da suka zama sanadin wajen dakushewar harkokin ƙungiyar.

Ana ji asarar shugabanni - da akasari kasancewar shugabancin ƙungiyar na yanzu wanda ba a san shi ba, na daga cikin manyan dalilai.

Sai dai har yanzu IS ta ƙaddamar da ɗaruruwan hare-hare musamman a Afirka, kuma ƙungiyar na ci gaba da harkoki a ƙasashe da dama ta hanyar amfani da raunin shugabanci da na taɓarɓarewar tsaro da kuma rikice-rikicen ƙabilanci.