Me zai faru da sojin hayar Rasha a Afirka idan ta rasa sansanin sojinta na Syria?

Hamɓarar da Shugaba Bashar al-Assad da kuma ruguza gwamnatinsa ya bar Gabas ta Tsakiya cikin wani hali. Kuma fiye da mil 2,000 daga nan, Rasha ta tsinci kanta cikin wata matsala.

Makomar dakarun tsaron Rasha na Afirka - wadanda ke taimaka wa ƙasashen yankin Sahel da dama a fannin tsaro - ta fara tangal-tangal. Moscow za ta iya rasa sansanonin sojojinta da ke Syria.

A shekarar 2017, Rasha ta ƙulla yarjejeniya da hamɓarraren shugaban ƙasa Assad, wanda ya bai wa Rasha damar amfani da tashar jirgin ruwa na sojoji da ke birnin Tartus kyauta har na tsawon shekara 49.

A dalilin haka, Rasha na da jiragen yaƙi girke a Tartus, da jiragen ƙarƙashin ruwa masu amfani da nukiliya marasa adadi, da gidajen ajiyar kayyayaki, da kuma ɗaruruwan sojoji da ke taimaka wa ayyukan soji a Gabas ta Tsakiya da kuma Afirka.

Ƙasashen biyu sun kuma amince a samar da tashar jiragen saman yaƙi kusa da Latakia - wani yanki mai nisan kusan sa'a ɗaya daga arewacin Tartus - inda Moscow ke da jiragen yaƙi,da jiragen dakon kaya, da kuma na'urorin kare harin makamai masu dogon zango.

Rasha na amfani da tashohinta da ke Syria domin aika makamai, da man fetur da kuma jami'ai zuwa wurare da take ayyukan soji a faɗin Afirka, wadanda take yi ta hanyar ƙungiyar Africa Corps, wadda ake kira Wagner a baya.

Ana kai wadannan kayayyakin daga Syria zuwa tashoshin Rasha da ke Libya, wurin da Rasha ke amfani da shi a matsayin mahaɗa domin ayyukanta a Afirka, a cewar Oliver Windrige, daraktan tsarin kuɗaɗen haram a wata ƙungiyar bincike mai suna The Sentry.

Har yanzu babu tabbas ko Rasha za ta iya cimma yarjejeniya da ƙungiyoyin tawayen da suka kifar da Assad (wanda Putin ya bai wa mafaka a Rasha) domin ta samu ta cigaba da amfani da tashoshinta da ke Syria.

''Ana yin duk mai yiwuwa a yanzu haka domin a tuntubi wadanda abun ya shafa domin tabbatar da tsaro, kuma har ila yau, sojojin mu suna ɗaukar matakan kariya da suka kamata,'' kakakin gwamnatin Rashan Dmitry Peskov ya shaidwa manema labarai a Moscow.

Moscow ta fara janye manyan jiragen ruwa daga Tartus a Syria, kamar yadda hotunan tauraron ɗan'adam da BBC ta yi nazari a kai suka nuna.

Akwai yiwuwar gwamnatocin Afirka za su fara horar da sojojinsu

''Wannan zai iya kasancewa matakin farko na kawo ƙarshen ayyukan Rasha a Afirka'' a cewar Windridge.

Yayin da ake samun juyin mulki a ƙasashe da dama, shugabannin sojin Nijar da Mali da Burkina Faso sun kawo ƙarshen hadin gwiwar tsaronsu da Faransa da sauran ƙasashen yamma, su ka zaɓi yin aiki tare da dakarun tsaron Rasha da ke Afirka.

''Rasha na da tarihin taimaka wa mayaƙa da masu juyin mulki da ƙasashen Yamma suka ƙaƙaba wa takunkumi, ko suka ware saboda sun shirya juyin mulki, ko rashin gudanar da gwamnati yadda ya kamata, ko kuma dalilan take hakkin ɗan'adam,'' inji Dakta Alex Vines, mai bincike a cibiyar bincike ta Policy Institute da ke Chatham House.

A yanzu haka akwai dakarun tsaron Rasha na Afirka da ke ƙasashe da dama a yammacin Afirka kamar; Mali, Burkina Faso, Nijar, Equatorial Guinea.

"Sai dai tura dakaru mafi muhimmanci da ta yi shi ne a Jamhuriyar Afirka ta tsakiya inda dakaru fiye da 2,000 suka taimaka wajen daƙile juyin mulki, suka samar da tsaro da horo, kuma suka shiga harkokin kasuwanci kamar haƙar zinare da siyar da makamai,'' a cewar Dakta Vines.

A ƙiyasi, rundunar mayaƙan haya ta Rasha a Afirka na da sojoji akalla 1,000 a Mali, da ƙasa da sojoji 100 a Burkina Faso, sai kuma aƙalla 800 a Equatorial Guinea domin su kare shugaban ƙasa da ya fi kowanne daɗewa kan mulki a Afirka, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mabasogo.

Idan wadannan sojojin suka rasa hanyar samun kayyayakin da su ke buƙata daga Moscow ta Syria, Gwamnatocin Afrirka da ke dogaro da Rasha saboda tsaro, za su iya kasancewa cikin barazanar hari daga ƴantawaye da masu tada ƙayar baya.

Wani harin da ba'a saba gani ba da aka kai Bamako, babban birnin ƙasar Mali a watan Satumban da ya gabata, ya nuna yadda wasu birane ke fuskantar barazana.

Wani kakakin ƙungiyar masu tada ƙayar baya na Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) da ke da alaƙa da ƙungiyar al Qaeda, ya sha alwashin kai wasu hare haren a tsakiyar biranen, a cewar cibiyar nazari kan yaƙi.

Akwai ƙungoyoyi kamar su JNIM da ake ganin za su iya nazari kan yanayin da ake ciki a Syria su kuma yi amfani da damar, a cewar Beverly Ochieng, wani mai sharhi kan harkokin tsaro a kamfanin Control Risks wanda ke zaune a Senegal.

'' Mun ga ƙungiyoyin al Qaeda a Mali su na murna kan abubuwan da ke faruwa a Syrai,'' a cewar Ochieng.

Burkina Faso da Nijar na cikin yanayi makamnanci na barazana, a cewar Moscow, akwai ƙarin sojoji a ƙasashen domin su tabbatar da tsaron wanda ke shugabancin ƙasar Ibrahim Traore, da kuma mutanen Burkina Faso daga harin ƴan ta'adda, inji Ochieng.

Ina Rasha za ta iya kafa sansani kuma?

Rasha za ta iya duba wasu wurare domin samun sabon sansani saboda ayyukanta a Afirka. Ƙasashe biyu ne ake ganin suna kan gaba ;Libya da Sudan.

Sai dai ƙasashen biyu za su samar da damarmaki da kuma barazana ga sojojin.

Alaƙar Rasha da Libya daɗaɗɗiya ce, inda take da sojoji aƙalla 1,500 a cewar bayanai daga makarantar koyar da harkokin ƙasa da ƙasa da ke Poland da kuma makarantar tsaro da binciken sirri ta Bloomsbury.

"Duk da dai Rasha za ta buƙaci ta samar da hanyar kai kayyayaki kaitsaye daga yankin ta zuwa Libya," a cewar Oliver Windridge : '' ayyukansu za su ƙara wahala, da tsada.

Misali, za a bukaci amincewa daga Turkiyya domin bi ta ruwa, ko kuma idan ana buƙatar jiragen dakon kaya su bi ta sararin samaniyarsu, idan ba haka ba, zai zama dole sai an yi zango.

Rasha za ta kuma fuskanci suka daga babban malamin addini, Dakta Sadiq Al-Ghariani, wanda ya kwatanta kasancewar Rasha a cikin ƙasar da mulkin mallakan da aka yi a baya.

Ɗaya zaɓin shi Sudan, inda Rasha ta so ta farfaɗo da yarjejeniyar 2017 domin gina tashar jirgin ruwa ta sojoji kusa da birnin Port Sudan da ke bakin teku.

''Wannan tsari ne mai kyau, saboda tasirin Rasha na faɗa harkoki a yankin daga Sudan zuwa Mali, yankin da ake juyin mulki,'' a cewar Ochieng.

Sai dai kuma a yanzu tsanannin rikici da rashin tabbas wanda yaƙin basasa da ake fama da shi ya janyo, zai iya daƙile ayyukan samar da wani sansani a wurin.

Don haka, mutanen Burkina Faso da Mali da wasu ƙasashen da dakarun Rasha suke aiki, su ne za su fuskanci matsala idan Rasha ta rasa ƙarfinta a Syria, saboda za ta rasa ikon turo dakarun Africa Corps cikin sauri da sauki.