Shin ya kamata na damu don tattalin arziƙin Amurka ya shiga wani hali?

Bankuna suna durƙushewa, manyan kamfanoni na rage ma'aikata, kasuwannin hannayen jari sun daina ƙirga riba - yayin da kiret ɗin ƙwai ya ninka farashi fiye da sau biyu a kan kuɗinsa na shekara uku da ta wuce.

Babu mamaki da Amurkawa masu yawa ke da imanin cewa tattalin arziƙin ƙasar yana cikin matsala.

To mene ne taƙamaimai ke faruwa?

Daga bunƙasa an koma tafiyar hawainiya

Shekara biyu kawai da ta wuce, tattalin arziƙin Amurka yana haɓaka.

Bunƙasar tattalin arziƙin ta kai kashi 5.9% a 2021 - bunƙasa ce mafi sauri kusan a cikin shekara 40 - daidai lokacin da sake buɗe harkoki bayan annobar korona suka ingiza kashe kuɗi daga masu sayayya da kuma ƙaruwar ayyukan yi.

Harkoki na garawa a wajen kamfanoni, suna cin moriyar ɗumbin ribar da ba a saba gani ba, duk da hauhawar farashin kayan sarrafawa.

Sai dai babu wanda ya yarda cewa irin wannan bunƙasa za ta ɗore, kuma ba ta yi ba.

A watanni ukun farko na wannan shekara, tattalin arziƙin ƙasar ya bunƙasa da kashi 1.1%, akasari saboda Baitulmalin Amurka wato Babban Bankin Ƙasar cikin sauri yana ta ƙoƙarin katse hanzarin hauhawar farashi.

Babban Bankin ya ƙara kuɗin ruwa da kashi 5% tun daga watan Maris na 2022 - wannan wani gagarumin ƙari ne a kan kuɗin samun bashi cikin wani ɗan ƙanƙanin lokaci.

Tun a shekarun 1980, rabon da a ga irin wannan gigicewa da tattalin arziƙin Amurka ya shiga.

Muhawarar da ake yi yanzu ita ce ko yaya zafin wannan tafiyar hawainiya zai kasance.

Tsadar yaƙi da hauhawar farashi

Gwamnatin Tarayya na ƙoƙarin shawo kan hauhawar farashi, wanda ya fara tumbatsa a lokacin haɓaka, lamarin da ya tunkuɗe tattalin arziƙin, kuma ya zaizaye ƙarfin sayen kaya.

Tsadar kuɗin ruwa an ɗauka tana sanyaya gwiwar mutane da kamfanoni ne daga cin bashi don sayen gidaje da bunƙasawa ko buɗe sabbin rassan kamfanoni da buɗe wasu harkoki, abin da zai sanyaya raɗaɗin tattalin arziƙi ke fama da shi, kuma ya sauƙaƙa takura a kan farashin abubuwa.

Labarai marasa daɗi - kamar fahimtar cewa gidajen da aka sayar sun ragu da kusan kashi 20% a bara, ɗaruruwan ma'aikatan bankunan ba da rancen gidaje sun rasa ayyukansu - wata manuniya cewa shirin gwamnati yana aiki.

Manya-manyan kamfanonin ƙere-ƙeren sadarwa da na harkokin kuɗi da hada-hadar kuɗin kirifto, inda kuɗin ruwa kaɗan yake ingiza bunƙasar harkoki, su ma sauye-sauyen sun yi matuƙar gigita su.

Sai dai, an shiga ƙarin fargaba cewa tafiyar hawainiyar za ta iya ƙwace wa daga hannun hukumomi.

Abubuwan da suka yi matuƙar ta'azzara bayan bankunan kasuwanci masu matsakaicin ƙarfi a Amurka - Bankin Silicon Valley da Bankin Signature da kuma Bankin First Republic - kwatsam sun karye.

A wani ɓangare saboda tashin kuɗin ruwa.

Karyewar ita ce mafi girma a tarihin Amurka, idan an cire mutuwar Bankin ba da rance na Washington Mutual, lokacin rikicin harkokin kuɗi na 2008.

Wannan abin damuwa har ya bazu zuwa nahiyar Turai.

Katafaren Bankin Credit Suisse da ke cikin tashin hankali a ƙasar Switzerland, wanda babban mai harkar kuɗi ne a duniya, shi ma abokin hamayyarsa Bankin UBS ya karɓi ragamar tafiyar da shi a wata yarjejeniyar dole don ceto shi daga durƙushewa.

Ko karayar tattalin arziƙi ce ta tunkaro Amurka?

Baitulmalin Amurka dai ya nuna alamun cewa a shirye yake ya dakatar da ƙara kuɗin ruwa don ganin yadda tattalin arziƙin ƙasar zai tsane jerin matakan da ya ɓullo da su.

A yanzu, halin da Amurka take ciki yana da dama-dama a kan sauran ƙasashe masu yawa.

Alƙaluman ayyukan yi ga mamaki sun yi tsayuwar daka, duk da korar ma'aikata da kamfanoni kamar Amazon da Disney da Ford da kamfanin sarrafa abinci na Tyson Foods ke yi.

Kashi 3.4%, na alƙaluman rashin aikin yi a watan Afrilu, haƙiƙa ya yi ƙasa a kan yadda abin yake bara - gaba ɗaya ya yi hannun riga da mafi yawan masu hasashe.

Hauhawar farashi ma ya lafa.

Kashi 4.9% ne a watan Afrilu, idan an kwatanta da kashi 5% a watan Maris, kuma ƙasa daga fiye da kashi 9% lokacin da ya kai ƙololuwarsa a watan Yunin 2022.

A Burtaniya idan an kwatanta, hauhawar farashi ya kai kashi 10.1% a wata Maris, kuma tattalin arziƙin ƙasar kwata-kwata bai bunƙasa ba a watan Fabrairu.

Duk da tafiyar hawainiyar, Asusun Lamuni na Duniya yana tsammanin za a samu bunƙasar kashi 1.6% a Amurka bana - ita ce bunƙasa mafi sauri a tsakanin manyan ƙasashe masu ci gaban masana'antu bakwai: Kanada da Faransa da Jamus da Italiya da Japan da kuma Burtaniya.

Sai dai a baya, tsadar kuɗin ruwa ta jefa tattalin arziƙin ƙasar cikin wata dawurwurar koma-baya - da wata komaɗa mai zafi na harkoki da aka fi sani da suna karayar tattalin arziƙi - inda miliyoyin mutane suka rasa ayyukansu. Mafi yawan mutane na tsammanin irin haka ce za ta faru a wannan karon ma, a farkon rabi na biyu na wannan shekara.

Kuma idan hauhawar farashin - wanda har yanzu ya zarce kashi 2% kamar yadda Babban Bankin ƙasar ya sa buri - ya ci gaba da ta'azzara, kuɗin ruwa na iya ɗagawa fiye da tsammanin mutane.

Masu zuba jari su ma, suna hango ƙarin hatsari a kan bankuna, musamman bankunan ba da rance na yankuna, waɗanda ke gudanar da ɗumbin harkokin kasuwanci da kamfanonin hada-hadar gidaje.

Kamfanonin da ke jin jiki saboda ƙarancin buƙatun filayen gina ofisoshi dalilin ƙaruwar aiki daga nesa, kuma suna iya shiga cikin halin ƙaƙa-ni-ka-yi wajen biyan basukan da ke kansu.

Harkar bankin da ke cikin damuwa, na nufin ƙarancin ba da bashi - kuma akwai sauran abubuwan da ke iya faɗo wa tattalin arziƙin na Amurka bagtatan, kamar yiwuwar cewa Amurka ta gaza biyan bashi a kan lokaci.

Don haka tafiyar hawainiyar da Babban Bankin Amurka ya ɓullo da shi da gangan zai iya ƙwace masa.