Shin Siriya ta doshi hanyar rabuwa ne ko kuma shiga sabon yaƙin basasa?

Mulki na tsawon shekara 61 da jam'iyyar Baathis ta ɗauka tana yi a Siriya ya zo karshe ne ranar 8 ga watan Disamban 2024, kuma Ahmed al-Sharaa - shugaban ƙungiyar masu jihadi ta Tahrir al-Sham wadda ke alaƙa da al-Qaeda, shi ne ya zama shugaban ƙasar na riƙo.

Sabuwar gwamnatin ta ɗauki tsawon watanni takwas da suka wuce tana ƙoƙarin haɗa kan soji zuwa wuri ɗaya a Syria da kuma ƙarfafa gwamnatin ƙasar.

Sai dai, ba a samu cigaba ba a tattaunawa tsakanin gwamnatin Syria da kuma ƴan tawayen Kurdawa a ƙasar - waɗanda suka yi mulki a arewacin ƙasar a tsawon shekara 13 da suka wuce da kuma suka samu goyon baya daga Amurka.

A kudancin Siriya, ƴan kabilar Druze sun kafa sojojinsu kuma ba sa son sabuwar gwamnatin ta shiya yankinsu. Suna son jami'an tsaronsu da kuma tsarin mulki daban.

A ɗaya gefen, Isra'ila ma ta fara far wa sojojin na Siriya a Damascus da kuma Sweida, inda suka ce suna yin haka ne domin kare ƴan kabilar Druze.

Ƴan ɗarikar Alawi, sun yi imanin cewa waɗanda suka far musu a watan Maris sun samun goyon bayan Damascus don haka ba su yarda da sabuwar gwamnatin ba.

A wannan yanayi ne, Siriya ke fuskantar rikice-rikice, rashin cimma tattaunawar diflomasiyya, waɗanda ba su yarda da sabuwar gwamnati ba da ta ta'allaka kan ƙungiyar Tahrir al-Sham da kuma ƙasashen da ke goyon bayan waɗannan ƙungiyoyi.

Wannan ya iza ayar tambaya na cewa ko Syria ta doshi hanyar rabewa ko kuma ana daf da fuskantar sabon yaƙin basasa da dakarun ƙasashen.

Mun tattauna da kwararru waɗanda suka mayar da hankali kan Siriya, yaƙin basasa da kuma ƙungiyoyi da suka yi zaman dirshan a ƙasar tsawon shekaru.

Shin an kawo karshen yaƙin basasar ne? Za a iya samun haɗin-kai?

Ahmed Sharawy, wani mai sharhi a wata cibiyar kare dimokraɗiyya a Gabas Ta Tsakiya, ya yi imanin cewa yaƙin basasar Siriya na cigaba da wanzuwa ta wani salo na daban.

"Lokacin da aka tumɓuke gwamnatin Bashar al-Assad, mutane da dama sun ɗauka cewa yaƙin basasar Siriya ya zo karshe," in ji shi. "Ban amince da hakan ba, sai dai yaƙin ya ɗauki wani salo na daban. Za a ci gaba da ganin haka a sabuwar gwamnatin nan."

Dakta Helin Sari Artem, wata farfesa a fannin ƙasa da ƙasa a jami'ar Madinah, ta yi imanin cewa ci gaba da samun rikice-rikice da takun tsaka da kuma zaman tankiya ba sabon abu bane a Siriya.

"Saboda ba za a iya samun haɗin-kai da kuma yardar mutane a cikin ƙanƙanin lokaci ba," in ji Artem.

"Muna magana ne kan yaƙin basasar da ta shafe tsawon shekara 13 da kuma ta kunshi ɗaruruwan ɓangarori na siyasa da kuma soji. Zuwa wannan gaɓa yana da matukar wahala. Don haka, za a fuskanci kalubale.

Ahmed Sharawy ya yi imanin cewa sabuwar gwamnatin Siriya, duk da ƙoƙari da take yi wajen samar da haɗin-kai, ba ta samu karɓuwa ba daga kowace kabila ko kuma ƙungiyar addini ba.

Ya ce hakan kuma ya shafi rikice-rikice da da aka samu a baya-bayan nan, inda ya ƙara da cewa: "Saboda ƙaruwar tashin hankali, musamman a yankin yamma da kuma kudanci, ina tunanin cewa Kurdawa wadanda a baya suka cimma yarjejeniya da gwamnati, a yanzu suna ɗari-ɗari kan shiga haɗaka da sabuwar gwamnatin ta Siriya. Suna ganin Ahmed al-Sharaa ba ya jin buƙatun marasa rinjaye."

A wata tattauna da aka watsa a sashen Turkiyya na BBC ranar 17 ga watan Yuli, wani fitaccen ɗan siyasar Kurdawa Ilham Ahmed, ya ce ba sa son ƙasa mai cin gashin kanta kuma sun ɗauki batun haɗin-kai da Siriya da muhimmanci, sai dai hakan na buƙatar ƙarin tattaunawa.

Lokacin da Ahmed al-Sharaa ya hamɓarar da Bashar al-Assad, wanda ya mulki Siriya tsawon shekara 24 da kuma shiga fadar shugaban ƙasa, ya yi alkawarin cewa zai haɗa-kan dukkan ƙungiyoyin da ke ɗauke da makamai zuwa inuwa ɗaya, kuma gwamnati ba za ta bari a yi amfani da makamai ba.

Sai dai har yanzu bai cika alkawarin ba, kusan watanni takwas da karɓe iko.

An samu shigar sabbin sojojin waje cikin Siriya

Shin rikici tsakanin ƙungiyoyi da ke riƙe da makamai a Siriya, waɗanda ke samun goyon bayan wasu ƙasashe, zai iya janyo yaƙi daga wasu ƙasashen duniya a yankin?

Ahmed Sharawy ya ce lokacin da Ahmed al-Sharaa ya zo kan mulki, an samu shigar sabbin sojoji daga ƙasashen zuwa cikin Siriya, abin da ya janyo bazuwar rikici.

"An kafa sabon runduna a Sweida wanda ake majalisar soji ta Sweida , wanda ke samun goyon bayan Isra'ila kuma sun kushi mayaƙa daga kabilar Druze," in ji shi. "Sojojin Siriya na samun goyon bayan Turkiyya. Waɗannan dakaru sun shiga cikin sojojin Siriya, amma suna ci gaba da karɓar umarni daga wajen shugabanninsu, wadanda suka kasance ƴan tawaye. Idan aka samu rikici a nan gaba, ba zan yi mamaki ba idan waɗannan ƙungiyoyi suka karɓi umarni daga Turkiyya da kuma yin abin da ya dace."

Wani ɗan jarida, James Dorsey ya ce "ƙungiyoyin mayaƙa a Siriya sun haɗa-kai kuma sun samu goyon bayan wasu ƙasashe a yankin," inda ya ce za a iya samun yaƙi daga wasu ƙasashe, don haka za a iya fuskantar sabon yaƙin basasa.

Ya yi imanin cewa a irin wannan yanayi, Isra'ila za ta iya shiga cikin rikicin.

Amurka da ƙasashen yankin Gulf sun nuna adawa da rabuwar kawuna

Duk da irin waɗannan abubuwa da ke faruwa, akwai fargabar cewa za a iya fuskantar bazuwar rikici da kuma rarrabuwar kawuna a Siriya, yayin da ƙasashen yankin Gulf da kuma Amurka ke marawa Siriya wajen kare yankinta.

"Ƙasahen yankin Gulf suna da muhimmanci - musamman wajen samarwa da Siriya kuɗaɗe," in ji Helin Sari Artem.

James Dorsey ya ƙara nanata cewa shugaban Amurka Trump na son ganin an haɗa-kai a Siriya da kuma samun ɗorewa, inda ya ce: "Trump na son ficewa daga Siriya na tsawon lokaci. Lokacin da ya haɗu da Ahmed al-Sharaa a Riyadh, ya yi farin ciki, daga nan ya ɗage takunkuman da aka kakaba wa Siriya."

Ƙwararre Ahmed Sharawy ya kuma ce Amurka na son ganin haɗin-kai ya samu a Siriya, kuma ya yi imanin cewa kafa tsarin mulki na tarayya ba zai yiwu ba cikin sauki a Siriya.

Ya kuma nanata muhimmancin goyon bayan ƙasashen yankin Gulf kan sabuwar gwamnatin Siriya, inda ya ce: "Idan ka kasance shugaban ƙasa a yankin Gabas Ta Tsakiya da kuma Saudiyya sannan ƙasashen yankin na mara ma baya, za ka kwana cikin farin ciki. Aƙalla zuwa yanzu."

Sharawy ya kuma ce ƴan Siriya sun gaji da yaƙi sannan suna son mafita ta siyasa kaɗai yanzu.

"Kowa ya gaji da wannan yaƙi na tsawon shekara 14," in ji shi. "Miliyoyin mutane sun rasa ƴan uwansu da iyalai kuma an tilasta musu yin ƙaura. Kan wannan dalili, ba na zaton za a samu wani yaƙin basasa a nan gaba."