US election results live updates: Trump or Biden who dey lead?

Promo image showing Joe Biden and Donald Trump
    • Author, The Visual and Data Journalism Team
    • Role, BBC News

Voters for America go decide on 3 November weda Donald Trump go remain for di White House for another four years.

Di Republican president dey face challenge from di Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, wey dey best known as Barack Obama vice-president but wey don dey US politics since di 1970s.

As election day dey near, polling companies go dey try to check di mood of di nation by asking voters which candidate dem prefer.

We go dey keep track of those polls here and try to work out wetin dem fit and no fit tell us about who go win di election.

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How di presidential candidates dey do nationally?

National polls na good guide to how popular one candidate dey across di country as a whole, but dem no necessarily be good way to predict di result of di election.

For 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton lead for di polls and win nearly three million more votes dan Donald Trump, but she still lose - dat na because di US dey us di electoral college system, so winning di most votes no dey always win you di election.

With dat one, Joe Biden don dey ahead of Donald Trump for di national polls for most of di year. He dey around 50% in recent weeks and bin don get 10-point lead sometimes.

Who dey ahead for national polls?

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Democrats

Biden

52%

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Republicans

Trump

44%

Di average voting intention based on individual polls

Date
BIDEN
TRUMP
Nov 02 52 44
Nov 02 52 44
Nov 02 52 44
Nov 02 52 44
Nov 01 52 44
Nov 01 52 44
Nov 01 52 44
Nov 01 52 44
Nov 01 52 44
Nov 01 52 44
Oct 31 52 44
Oct 31 52 44
Oct 31 52 44
Oct 31 52 44
Oct 31 52 44
Oct 30 52 43
Oct 30 52 43
Oct 29 52 43
Oct 29 52 43
Oct 29 52 43
Oct 29 52 43
Oct 28 52 43
Oct 28 52 43
Oct 28 52 43
Oct 28 52 43
Oct 28 52 43
Oct 27 51 42
Oct 27 51 42
Oct 27 51 42
Oct 27 51 42
Oct 27 51 42
Oct 27 51 42
Oct 26 51 43
Oct 26 51 43
Oct 26 51 43
Oct 26 51 43
Oct 26 51 43
Oct 25 51 42
Oct 25 51 42
Oct 25 51 42
Oct 24 51 43
Oct 24 51 43
Oct 24 51 43
Oct 24 51 43
Oct 23 51 42
Oct 23 51 42
Oct 22 51 43
Oct 22 51 43
Oct 21 51 43
Oct 21 51 43
Oct 20 51 43
Oct 20 51 43
Oct 20 51 43
Oct 20 51 43
Oct 20 51 43
Oct 19 52 42
Oct 19 52 42
Oct 19 52 42
Oct 19 52 42
Oct 18 52 42
Oct 18 52 42
Oct 18 52 42
Oct 18 52 42
Oct 17 52 42
Oct 17 52 42
Oct 17 52 42
Oct 16 52 42
Oct 16 52 42
Oct 15 52 42
Oct 15 52 42
Oct 15 52 42
Oct 14 52 42
Oct 14 52 42
Oct 13 53 42
Oct 13 53 42
Oct 13 53 42
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Oct 13 53 42
Oct 12 52 42
Oct 12 52 42
Oct 12 52 42
Oct 12 52 42
Oct 11 53 42
Oct 11 53 42
Oct 10 52 42
Oct 10 52 42
Oct 09 52 42
Oct 09 52 42
Oct 08 52 42
Oct 07 52 42
Oct 06 52 42
Oct 06 52 42
Oct 06 52 42
Oct 06 52 42
Oct 06 52 42
Oct 06 52 42
Oct 05 51 42
Oct 04 51 42
Oct 04 51 42
Oct 04 51 42
Oct 04 51 42
Oct 03 51 43
Oct 03 51 43
Oct 02 51 42
Oct 01 51 43
Oct 01 51 43
Oct 01 51 43
Oct 01 51 43
Sep 30 51 43
Sep 30 51 43
Sep 30 51 43
Sep 29 51 43
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Sep 29 51 43
Sep 28 50 43
Sep 27 50 43
Sep 27 50 43
Sep 26 50 43
Sep 25 50 43
Sep 25 50 43
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Sep 23 51 43
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Sep 20 51 43
Sep 19 51 43
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Sep 18 50 43
Sep 17 51 43
Sep 16 51 43
Sep 16 51 43
Sep 16 51 43
Sep 15 50 43
Sep 15 50 43
Sep 15 50 43
Sep 15 50 43
Sep 14 51 43
Sep 14 51 43
Sep 13 51 43
Sep 12 51 43
Sep 12 51 43
Sep 11 51 43
Sep 10 51 43
Sep 10 51 43
Sep 09 51 43
Sep 08 51 43
Sep 08 51 43
Sep 08 51 43
Sep 08 51 43
Sep 08 51 43
Sep 08 51 43
Sep 07 50 42
Sep 06 50 42
Sep 06 50 42
Sep 05 51 43
Sep 04 51 42
Sep 04 51 42
Sep 03 51 42
Sep 02 51 43
Sep 02 51 43
Sep 01 50 42
Sep 01 50 42
Sep 01 50 42
Sep 01 50 42
Sep 01 50 42
Sep 01 50 42
Aug 31 50 42
Aug 31 50 42
Aug 31 50 42
Aug 31 50 42
Aug 31 50 42
Aug 30 50 41
Aug 30 50 41
Aug 29 51 42
Aug 28 51 43
Aug 28 51 43
Aug 27 51 43
Aug 26 50 43
Aug 25 50 42
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Aug 15 50 42
Aug 15 50 42
Aug 14 50 42
Aug 14 50 42
Aug 13 50 41
Aug 12 50 42
Aug 12 50 42
Aug 11 50 42
Aug 11 50 42
Aug 11 50 42
Aug 11 50 42
Aug 10 50 41
Aug 09 49 41
Aug 08 49 41
Aug 07 49 41
Aug 06 50 41
Aug 05 50 42
Aug 04 50 42
Aug 04 50 42
Aug 03 50 42
Aug 02 50 42
Aug 01 50 42
Jul 31 50 42
Jul 30 50 42
Jul 29 49 41
Jul 28 49 41
Jul 28 49 41
Jul 28 49 41
Jul 27 50 42
Jul 26 51 41
Jul 25 51 41
Jul 24 51 41
Jul 23 51 41
Jul 22 50 41
Jul 21 50 41
Jul 21 50 41
Jul 20 50 41
Jul 19 51 41
Jul 18 51 41
Jul 17 50 41
Jul 16 50 41
Jul 15 50 41
Jul 15 50 41
Jul 14 50 40
Jul 14 50 40
Jul 13 51 40
Jul 12 51 40
Jul 12 51 40
Jul 11 49 40
Jul 10 49 40
Jul 09 49 40
Jul 08 49 40
Jul 07 50 41
Jul 07 50 41
Jul 06 49 41
Jul 05 49 40
Jul 04 49 40
Jul 03 49 40
Jul 02 49 40
Jul 01 50 41
Jun 30 50 41
Jun 30 50 41
Jun 30 50 41
Jun 29 50 41
Jun 28 49 41
Jun 27 50 40
Jun 26 50 40
Jun 25 50 41
Jun 24 50 41
Jun 23 50 40
Jun 23 50 40
Jun 22 50 41
Jun 22 50 41
Jun 21 50 41
Jun 20 50 41
Jun 19 50 41
Jun 18 51 41
Jun 17 50 41
Jun 16 50 41
Jun 16 50 41
Jun 15 49 41
Jun 14 50 42
Jun 13 49 41
Jun 12 49 41
Jun 11 49 42
Jun 10 49 42
Jun 09 49 42
Jun 08 49 42
Jun 07 49 42
Jun 06 49 42
Jun 05 49 42
Jun 04 49 42
Jun 03 49 42
Jun 03 49 42
Jun 03 49 42
Jun 02 48 41
Jun 02 48 41
Jun 01 48 42
Jun 01 48 42
May 31 48 42
May 30 48 43
May 29 48 43
May 28 48 43
May 27 48 42
May 26 48 42
May 25 48 42
May 24 48 42
May 23 48 43
May 22 48 43
May 21 48 43
May 20 48 43
May 19 48 43
May 19 48 43
May 18 49 44
May 17 49 44
May 16 49 44
May 15 49 44
May 14 49 43
May 14 49 43
May 13 48 43
May 12 47 43
May 11 48 43
May 10 48 43
May 09 47 42
May 08 48 42
May 07 48 42
May 06 48 42
May 05 48 42
May 04 48 42
May 03 47 42
May 02 48 42
May 01 48 42
Apr 30 48 42
Apr 29 48 42
Apr 28 48 42
Apr 28 48 42
Apr 27 49 42
Apr 26 49 42
Apr 25 49 42
Apr 24 48 42
Apr 23 48 42
Apr 22 48 42
Apr 21 48 42
Apr 20 48 43
Apr 19 49 43
Apr 18 49 43
Apr 17 49 42
Apr 16 49 42
Apr 15 48 42
Apr 14 48 42
Apr 13 48 42
Apr 12 48 42
Apr 11 48 42
Apr 10 48 42
Apr 09 48 42
Apr 08 48 42
Apr 07 48 42
Apr 07 48 42
Apr 07 48 42
Apr 06 49 42
Apr 06 49 42
Apr 06 49 42
Apr 05 48 43
Apr 04 48 43
Apr 03 48 43
Apr 02 48 43
Apr 01 49 44
Mar 31 49 45
Mar 30 49 45
Mar 29 49 45
Mar 28 49 45
Mar 27 49 45
Mar 26 49 45
Mar 25 49 44
Mar 24 49 43
Mar 24 49 43
Mar 23 50 44
Mar 22 50 44
Mar 21 52 42
Mar 20 52 43
Mar 19 52 43
Mar 18 52 42
Mar 17 52 42
Mar 16 52 43
Mar 15 52 43
Mar 14 52 43
Mar 13 52 43
Mar 12 52 43
Mar 11 51 43
Mar 10 50 43
Mar 09 51 42
Mar 08 51 42
Mar 07 50 43
Mar 06 49 45
Mar 05 49 45
Mar 04 49 45
Mar 03 49 45
Mar 02 49 45
Mar 01 50 45
Feb 29 50 45
Feb 28 50 45
Feb 27 50 44
Feb 26 50 45
Feb 25 50 45
Feb 24 50 45
Feb 23 50 45
Feb 22 50 45
Feb 21 50 44
Feb 20 50 44
Feb 19 50 44
Feb 18 50 44
Feb 17 51 44
Feb 17 51 44
Feb 16 50 44
Feb 15 50 43
Feb 14 50 43
Feb 13 50 43
Feb 12 50 46
Feb 11 50 44
Feb 10 50 44
Feb 09 50 44
Feb 08 49 44
Feb 07 49 44
Feb 06 49 44
Feb 05 50 46
Feb 04 50 45
Feb 03 50 45
Feb 02 50 45
Feb 01 50 44
Jan 31 50 44
Jan 30 50 44
Jan 29 50 44
Jan 28 50 44
Jan 27 50 45
Jan 26 50 45
Jan 25 50 45
Jan 24 50 46
Jan 23 50 46
Jan 23 50 46
Jan 22 50 44
Jan 21 51 45
Jan 20 51 45
Jan 19 51 45
Jan 18 48 46
Jan 17 48 46
Jan 16 48 46
Jan 15 48 46
Jan 14 48 46
Jan 13 48 46
Jan 12 48 46
Jan 11 48 46

30 days until Election day

Di BBC poll of polls dey look di individual national polls fdrom di last 14 days and use am create trend lines with di median value - dis one mean di value wey dey middle for di set of numbas.

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By contrast, for 2016 di polls no too clear and na just small couple of percentage points separate Mr Trump and im rival den Hillary Clinton for several points as election day near.

Skip Di one wey oda users dey read well well and continue reading
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End of Di one wey oda users dey read well well

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Which states go decide dis election?

As Mrs Clinton discover for 2016, di number of votes you win dey less important dan where you win dem.

Most states nearly always vote di same way, meaning say in reality na just small number of states where both candidates stand di chance of winning. These na di places where di election go dey won and lost and dem dey known asi di battleground states.

Map showing where the battleground states are in the 2020 election. Texas has the largest number of electoral college votes (38) while New Hampshire has the fewest (4)
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For di electoral college system di US dey use to elect im president, each state dey get a number of votes based on its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes dey up for grabs, so one candidate need to hit 270 to win.

As the map above show, some battleground states get more electoral college votes on offer dan others so candidates dey often spend a lot more time dey campaign dia.

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Who dey lead for di battleground states?

At di moment, polls for di battleground states look good for Joe Biden, but a long way still dey to go and things fit change very quickly, especially wen Donald Trump dey involved.

Di polls suggest say Mr Biden get big leads for Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - three industrial states wia im Republican rival win by margins of less dan 1% to get victory for 2016.

Latest polling averages for battleground states

Scroll table to see more data
Click di column headers make you arrange di table by a columwey dey go up or cum dan
Arizona 47.9% 47.0% Trump + 3.6%
Florida 47.9% 47.0% Trump + 1.2%
Georgia 47.2% 48.2% Trump + 5.2%
Iowa 45.6% 47.6% Trump + 9.5%
Michigan 50.0% 45.8% Trump + 0.2%
Minnesota 48.0% 43.7% Clinton + 1.5%
Nevada 48.7% 46.3% Clinton + 2.4%
New Hampshire 53.4% 42.4% Clinton + 0.4%
North Carolina 47.6% 47.8% Trump + 3.7%
Ohio 46.3% 47.3% Trump + 8.2%
Pennsylvania 48.7% 47.5% Trump + 0.7%
Texas 46.5% 47.8% Trump + 9.1%
Virginia 51.7% 40.3% Clinton + 5.4%
Wisconsin 51.0% 44.3% Trump + 0.8%

Abeg update your browser to see full experience

Source: US Census Wen last we update di figures: 03/11

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But na di battleground states where Mr Trump win big for 2016 na im e campaign team go dey most worried about. Im winning margin for Iowa, Ohio and Texas dey between 8-10% back den but he dey neck-and-neck with Mr Biden in all three at di moment.

Those poll numbers fit maybe help explain im decision to replace im re-election campaign manager for July and im regular reference to "fake polls".

Betting markets, however, no dey write off Mr Trump just yet. Di latest odds still give am about one in three chance of winning on 3 November.

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Coronavirus don affect Trump numbers?

Di coronavirus pandemic don dominate headlines for di US since di start of di year and di response to President Trump' actions dey divided along party lines.

Support for im approach go high by mid-March after he declare national emergency and make $50 billion available to states to stop di spread of di virus. At dis point, 55% of Americans approve im actions, according to data from Ipsos, one leading polling company.

But any support e bin get from Democrats disappear afta dat, while Republicans continue to dey back dia president.

Chart showing that the majority of Americans do not approve of Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic
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Di most recent data, however, suggest say even im own supporters don begin to question im response as states in di south and di west of di kontri don dey deal with new outbreaks of di virus. Republican support don fall to78% by early July.

Dis may explain why he dey less optimistic about coronavirus recently, with warning say di situation go "get worse before e get better"

E also wear face mask for di first time recently and call on Americans to wear dem, say "dem go get effect" and show "patriotism".

One leading model wey experts produce for University of Washington predict di death toll go done pass 250,000 by election day.

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We fit trust di polls?

E dey easy to dismiss di polls by saying dem get am wrong for 2016 and President Trump dey frequently do exactly dat. But e no dey entirely true.

Most national polls bin see Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but dat no mean say dem bin dey wrong, since she win three million more votes dan her rival.

Pollsters get some problems for 2016 - wey be failure to properly represent voters without college degree - meaning say dem no spot Mr Trump advantage for some key battleground states until late in di race, if at all. Most polling companies don correct am now.

But dis year get even more uncertainty dan normal due to di coronavirus pandemic and the effect e dey get on both di economy and how pipo go vote November, so pipo suppose look all polls with one eye, especially as election day still far.