Brexit: How di mata fit affect Africa

UK dey comot from di European Union on Friday, January 31, 2020.

Afta Brexit, UK wan increase business trade with Africa, but di kwesion wey dey ground on top di mata na if new opportunities go really dey for Africa.

Trade dey tricky. Trade agreements dey more tricky. Trade tok-tok to make all dis agreements happun dey very complex.

Once UK leave di European Union for di end of January, dem get 11 months to come up with trade deal with di European Union to avoid make dem no go back to World Trade Organization rules.

Wia dis one go leave Africa?

UK International Development Secretary, Alok Sharma, get very strong hope say Britain relations with Africa go increase with trade, business and investment deals wey go dey come left, right and centre.

And e be like say di UK goment dey serious for dis strong relationship.

Di UK-Africa Investment Summit na evidence of dat but any future change for di actual trade conditions still dey far.

Wetin go change wen Britain leave di EU?

Mostly, nothing go change for di end of January.

Plenti political speech and tok-tok go dey but di UK go still be member of di EU Customs Union and Single Market until di end of di year.

Plan also dey ground for dis to extend by anoda two years, but di Prime Minister Boris Johnson fit rule out dis one.

Dis mean say trade relations between UK and Africa go stay di same for 2020, and dem go do am under di different EU deals wey don dey exist with di continent.

What about afta 2020?

Beyond 2020 , trade arrangements between many African kontries and UK wey go don fully leave EU dey also set to remain di same under some number of "continuity agreements".

Dis one mean say di trade conditions (tariffs, quotas, standards and so on) go remain di same as e currently dey between some number of African kontries and trading blocs and di EU.

For example, for September last year, di UK bring di idea of Economic Partnership Agreement with Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) - wey dey made up of South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and eSwatini - and Mozambique.

Dem design am to keep tins as dem dey under di current trade relationship wey di southern African nations get with di EU.

E show di agreement wey di EU already get with Sacu.

According to Britain International Trade Secretary, Liz Truss, di agreement "go allow businesses to continue trading afta Brexit without any additional barriers".

And dis look like di UK approach - to keep di same conditions wey already exist between di UK and African kontries under EU deals. Worldwide, di UK don put in place about 40 of such "continuity" deals, wey cover some 70 kontries.

Di UK don dey free (allowed) to strike dis deals with kotries wey already get di same agreements with di EU.

African kontries fit get better deal from di UK?

Outside di big EU gang, di UK, technically, get less negotiating influence.

Dis fit mean say African kontries wey dey trade with di UK fit dey able to squeeze out slightly more terms wey dem prefer during negotiations.

As we don mention earlier, trade negotiations dey complex and need time and resources.

As e be say di UK go leave EU for di end of January, dia trade negotiating efforts need to look at wetin dey more important pass.

Brexit fit affect oda area of di African economy?

Of course, di Brexit effect dey more than only for trade.

Dis fit dey clear if di UK fall enta recession afta Brexit. Dis fit hit places like South Africa hard.

Di UN calculate say di UK na South Africa eighth-largest import and export market in global terms.

If di UK economy get recession cold, South Africa fit contact am.

And wit di way South Africa dey strong compare to oda African economies, dis wan no go waka well at all.

What about Kenya flower growers?

Brexit fit also need new infrastructure for di UK to deal with certain imports.

Flowers na one of Kenya biggest exports and foreign currency earners. Di industry na also major employer, wey dey provide 100,000 pipo with direct work and around two million indirectly.

For di moment, Kenya flowers dey enta di EU through di big market for Amsterdam.

From dia 18% of dem dey end up for di UK. But wetin go happun afta Brexit?

Zero-tariff arrangements fit still dey in place under one continuity agreement, but e fit also get physical problems.

Di Kenya Flower Council don point out say di infrastructure for flying flowers directly to UK no dey developed as di Nairobi-Amsterdam route.

For oda words, e fit also get impact.

Wetin business pipo suppose to dey look at?

As far as African companies dey concern, di post-Brexit world go depend very much on di nature of dia business with both di EU and di UK.

"Companies wey dey depend heavily on EU-related preferences for di UK market need to shine dia eyes well-well on developments inside Europe; and on tok-tok between di UK and dia own konntri on future arrangements," Matthew Stern for DNA Economics inside Pretoria tok.