Peace tok fit end Sudan civil war?

Di US dey try to persuade representatives from di two sides for Sudan civil conflict to meet for peace tok-tok for Geneva on Wednesday.

Di war don dey go on since April 2023 and e don cause humanitarian wahala wey don affect ova 25 million pipo. But di Sudanese Armed Forces, wey dey control di kontri, don tok say dem no go send pesin go di meeting. If dem no show, wetin di tok-tok fit achieve?

Why civil war dey for Sudan?

For 2021, di head of Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, seize power for coup.

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, wey pipo sabi as “Hemedti,” help am, and Hemedti na di head of one paramilitary army wey dem dey call Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Di two leaders quarrel about how dem go share power and di future role and moni for di RSF.

For April 2023, di tension burst into civil war. Di RSF now dey control most of di capital, Khartoum, most of di big province of Darfur for west Sudan, and Al Jezira state, wey dey produce most of Sudan crops.

Di SAF dey control di eastern and northern parts of Sudan.

Right now, serious fighting dey happun for di control of El Fasher, di capital of North Darfur, and around Khartoum.

Both sides dey receive support from foreign powers wey dey help dem continue di fight.

Di SAF dey get backing from Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and Iran dey supply dem wit weapons.

Di United Arab Emirates (UAE) dey back di RSF. Dem tok say di Russian mercenary group Wagner get links wit di RSF, but dem deny say dem dey involve for di conflict.

Foreign powers dey give both sides support, wey dey help dem to continue di fight.

Di SAF dey backed by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, while Iran don dey supplying dem wit weapons. Di United Arab Emirates (UAE) dey back di RSF.

Di Russian mercenary group Wagner reportedly get links to di RSF, but deny playing any part for di conflict.

Which suffering di civil war cause?

Di UN don tok say Sudan dey face “catastrophic humanitarian crisis,” as 26 million pipo—about half di population—dey face “acute hunger".

Almost 11 million pipo don lose dia homes.

Di food security data agency, IPC tok say ova 750,000 pipo dey near starvation.

According to ACLED, wey dey gather data on conflicts, estimate say about 16,650 pipo don die for di conflict.

Both di SAF and RSF don dey accused of serious atrocities, including mass rape, torture, and civilian massacres.

Di UN don call Sudan civil war a “forgotten crisis” and dem dey beg for immediate ceasefire between di two sides as di only way to stop famine from spreading further.

Why di SAF no dey attend di peace tok?

Di US special envoy for Sudan, Tom Perriello, don spend months dey try bring the leaders of SAF and RSF togeda make dem do face-to-face tok.

Dem don schedule di tok for Geneva on 14 August, for peace tok-tok wey Saudi Arabia and Swiss goment go co-host.

Observers from RSF main backer, UAE, and Egypt, wey dey support SAF, go join di tok too, as well as observers from UN and African Union.

RSF don tok say dem go send representatives for di tok. But SAF don tok say dem no go attend.

General al Burhan don dey tok say 'no negotiation, no peace', for long time,' Alan Boswell from International Crisis Group don tell BBC.

E refuse to attend di tok unless dem refer to SAF as di goment of Sudan.

But RSF no gree recognize SAF as di goment. Dis na protocol mata wey di diplomats neva fit resolve.'

E get anoda reason why Gen al-Burhan no wan attend di peace tok, Alex Vines from Chatham House, di London-based international affairs tink tank, don tell BBC.

‘'SAF wan negtiate from position of strength," e tok. "Dem still tink say dem fit win for battlefield."

General al-Burhan still need to listen to di coalition of generals and politicians wey dey run di goment wit am, Mr Vines tok, and most of dem no gree make dem deal with RSF.

Wetin di peace tok fit achieve?

If SAF no show for Geneva, di US team tok say dem go continue wit 'technical tok.'

'’Dem go tok wit di backers of di warring parties, Egypt and UAE, and try make dem agree on peace plan,'’ Mr Boswell tok.

‘'Once dem fit put dem for di same level, e go possible to push di warring parties towards peace.'’

Dem don try bifor to broker peace for Sudan but e no work. From May 2023 - one month afta di conflict start - Saudi Arabia and US sponsor peace tok for di Saudi city of Jeddah.

For dia, SAF and RSF agree to series of temporary ceasefires but bin go back to fighting afta each one.

‘'Di short-term hope for peace for Sudan dey veri dark,’' Mr Vines tok.

‘'But dat no mean say we no go do anytin.'’