More dan 66 million pipo don already vote for US election

More dan 66 million pipo across di US don cast early ballot - either in pesin or by post - as of yesterdat, according to di University of Florida voter tracker.

Di tracker also show say 38.4% of di voters na registered Democrats and 36.2% na registered Republicans.

Dis figure only apply to 26 states wit public party registration information, wey cova just under half of di total of early votes. Party registration data no precisely predict a voter choice.

While most of di US states allow early voting, e dey important to know say di officials no dey allowed to begin counting ballots until election day on 5 November.

Different groups of voters don also historically cast dia ballots for different times and in varied ways, so e dey important make we no over-interpret di party registration numbers.

Path to 270: Di states Harris and Trump need to win

Across di entire US, e get a total of 538 electoral college votes wey dey available for grab and di winner go be di candidate wey get 270 or more.

For all states except, di presidential candidate wit di most individual votes from di residents dia go win all di state electoral college votes.

If both candidates win all di states wey history - and di polls - suggest dey almost certain to vote for dem, e go leave Kamala Harris 44 votes short of victory and Donald Trump looking for 51 more votes to become president.

Di swing states hold 93 votes between dem.

Both candidates go need to win several swing states to get dem over di line; Harris need at least three and Trump needs at least four.

E get many different swing state combinations wey fit take either past 270 - but some dey more likely dan odas.

Wetin be di latest?

Who dey ahead between Harris and Trump for US election polls?

Voters for di US dey go to polls on 5 November to elect dia next president.

Di election at first na rematch of 2020 but e dey upended for July wen President Joe Biden bin end im campaign and endorse Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Di big question now be say - shey America go get dia first woman president or one second Donald Trump term?

As election day dey come near, we go dey keep track of di polls and see which effect di campaign get on di race for di White House.

Who dey lead national polls?

Harris bin get one small lead over Trump for di national polling average since she enta di race for di end of July and she remain ahead - as e show for di chart below wit di latest figures rounded to di nearest whole number.

Harris bin see one bounce for her polling numbers for di first few weeks of her campaign, build one lead of nearly four percentage points towards di end of August.

Di polls dey somehow stable for September and early October but dem don dey tight for some weeks now, as e show for di chart below, with trend lines wey show di averages and dots for individual poll results for each candidate.

While national polls na useful guide to how popular one candidate be across di whole kontri, dem no be di best way to predict di election result.

Dat na sake of say di US dey use one electoral college system, wia each state dey get number of votes roughly in line wit di size of im population. One total of 538 electoral college votes dey up for grab, so one candidate need to hit 270 to win.

Na 50 states dey di US but sake of say most of dem nearly always vote for di same party, in reality e be just one handful wia both candidates stand one chance of winning. Dis na di places wia dem go win and lose and dey known as battleground states or swing states.

Who dey win for swing state polls?

Right now di lead for swing states dey so small dat e dey impossible to know who really dey ahead from looking at di polling averages.

Polls dey designed to broadly explain how di public feel about one candidate or one issue - no predict di result of one election by less dan one percentage point so e dey important to keep dat for mind wen you dey look numbers below.

E also dey important to remember say di individual polls wey dem dey use to create dis averages get margin of error of around three to four percentage points, so either candidate fit dey do beta or worse dan di numbers currently suggest.

If you look di trends since Harris bin join di race, e highlight some differences between di states.

For Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, di lead don change hands few times since di start of August but Trump get one small lead for all of dem for di moment. Na similar story for Nevada but wit Harris di candidate wey dey slightly ahead.

For di three oda states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - Harris bin don lead since di start of August, sometimes by two or three points, but di polls don tighten significantly and Trump now get one veri small lead for Pennsylvania.

All three of dose states na Democratic strongholds bifor Trump bin turn dem red on im path to win di presidency for 2016. Biden bin retake dem for 2020 and if Harris fit do di same den she go dey on course to win di election.

For one sign of how di race don change since Harris become di Democratic nominee, on di day wey Biden bin quit di race e bin dey trail Trump by nearly five percentage points on average for di seven swing states.

For Pennsylvania, Biden dey behind by nearly 4.5 percentage points wen e bin drop out, as di chart below show. Na key state for both campaigns as e be di highest number of electoral votes of di seven and therefore to win am make am easier to reach di 270 votes wey dey needed.

How dem dey create dis averages

Di figures wey we don use in di graphics above na averages wey dey created by polling analysis website 538, wey be part of American news network ABC News. To create dem, 538 dey collect di data from individual polls wey dey carried out both nationally and for battleground states by lots of polling companies.

As part of im quality control, 538 only include polls from companies wey meet some criteria, like to dey transparent about how many pipo poll, wen di poll dey carried out and how di poll dey conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc).

You fit read more about di 538 methodology here.

We fit trust di polls?

Di polls don underestimate support for Trump for di last two elections and di national polling error for 2020 na di highest inside 40 years according to one post-mortem by polling experts - so good reason dey to dey cautious about dem going into dis year election.

Dem say di polling miss for 2016 na sake of voters wey change dia minds for di final days of di campaign and sake of college-educated voters - wey dey more likely to support Hillary Clinton - dey over-represented for polling samples.

For 2020, di experts bin point to problems wit getting Trump supporters to take part for polls, but say e dey “impossible” to know exactly wetin bin cause di polling error, especially as di election bin hold during one pandemic and get record turnout.

Pollsters don make lots of changes since den and di polling industry “get one of im most successful election cycles for US history” for di 2022 midterm elections, according to analysts.

But Donald Trump bin no dey di ballot for di midterms and we no know until afta election day weda dis changes fit deal wit di influx of irregular voters e fit attract.

Na Mike Hills and Libby Rogers write and produce am. Na Joy Roxas do di design.