Ko shugabannin Afirka za su iya sasanta yaƙin Ukraine da Rasha

Wani ayarin wanzar da zaman lafiya na shugabannin ƙasashen Afrika bakwai na ziyara a ƙasashen Ukraine da Rasha, inda suke fatan ziyarar za ta ba da gudunmawa wajen kawo ƙarshen yaƙin da ake gwabzawa tsakanin ƙasashen biyu.

Wakilai daga Afrika ta Kudu da Masar da Senegal da Kongo -Brazzaville da Komoros da Zambiya da kuma Uganda sun yi ganawa da shugaban Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky a ranar Juma'a, yayin da a yau Asabar kuma za su gana da Shugaba Vladimir Putin na Rasha.

Sai dai ziyarar shugabannin na zuwa ne a daidai lokacin da Kyiv ke ƙaddamar da munanan hare-haren mayar da martani.

To, shin ko wanne buri ayarin ke son cimmawa?

Jagoran tafiyar kuma shugaban Afrika ta Kudu Cyril Ramaphosa, bai bayyana taƙamaiman wa'adi ba, lokacin da ya sanar da kudurinsu a cikin watan jiya, sa'ar da ya gana da jami'an shiga tsakanin da suka haɗar da ƙasashen China da Turkiyya da kuma Fadar Fafaroma.

An tambayi Kingsley Makhubel, tsohon jami'in diflomasiyya kuma mai sharhi kan al'amuran rikice-rikice a Afrika ta kudu, "Shin mece ce hikimar wannan yunƙuri na masu shiga tsakanin?"

Sai ya ce ayarin wani batu ne da ba a saba ganin irinsa ba, inda aka samu ayarin shugabannin Afrika mafi girma da suka tunkari batun kashe wutar yaƙin da wasu ke ganin tamkar yin fito-na-fito ne tsakanin Rasha da Ƙasashen Yamma.

Sannan wani gagarumin yunƙurin shiga tsakani na diflomasiyya ne zuwa wajen nahiyar, "batu ne da za a yi maraba da shi".

Kuma zai ƙara bai wa Afirka damar yin magana da babbar murya a zauren Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya da ƙungiyoyin ƙasashen duniya, kamar yadda daraktan cibiyar ƙwararrun masana harkokin rikici ta duniya ICG reshen Afirka, Murithi Mutiga, ya bayyana.

Jean-Yves Ollivier, shugaban gidauniyar Brazzaville Foundation, da ke ƙoƙarin tabbatar da zaman lafiya da cigaban Afirka mai babban ofis a Birtaniya, ya ce mnufar ziyarar ita ce fara tattaunawa maimakon warware rikici.

A fara tattauna batutuwa kai tsaye waɗanda ba su shafi yanayin ayyukan soja ba, da kuma fara ginawa daga inda aka tsaya.

Ɗaya daga cikin batutuwan shi ne yiwuwar musayar fursunonin yaƙi a tsakanin Rasha da Yukren.

Batu na gaba shi ne yadda za a yi ƙoƙarin warware batutuwan da suka fi shafar Afirka, kamar samar da hatsi da takin zamani.

Yaƙin ya yi matuƙar illa wajen hana fitar da hatsi daga Yukren da kuma takin zamani daga Rasha, lamarin da ya haifar mummunan ƙarancin abinci a duniya.

Afirka, wadda ta dogara kacokam wajen shigo da duk kayayyakin, tana matuƙar ɗanɗana kuɗar da ba tata ba.

Mr Ollivier ya ce, shugabannin na Afirka za su yi ƙoƙarin shawo kan Rasha a kan ta amince ta tsawaita yarjejeniyar nan da aka yi watsi da ita, ta bai wa jiragen ruwan Yukren damar fitar da hatsi ta tekun baharul-aswad.

Sannan za su buƙaci hukumomin Ƙif su taimaka wajen lalubo hanyoyin sassauta matakan hana fitar da takin zamani na Rasha wanda a halin yanzu aka jibge a tashoshin ruwa.

Matsin lambar Amurka kan Afirka ta Kudu

Ayarin shugabannin ƙasashen na Afirka ya ƙunshi ɓangarori daban-daban na Afirkan kuma suna ɗauke da ra'ayoyi daban-daban da ke shafar rikici.

Ana ganin shugabannin ƙasashen Afirka ta Kudu da Uganda sun fi karkata ga Rasha, yayin da na Zambia Komoros ke da kusanci da Ƙasashen Yamma, sai kuma ƙasashen Masar da Sengal da Kongo-Brazzaville da ba su goyi bayan kowanne ɓangare ba.

Sai dai wani lamari a baya-bayan nan ya nuna cewa Afirka ta Kudu na ƙoƙarin shawo kan ɓangarorin.

Gwamnatin Ramaphosa tana ƙara fuskantar matsin lamba daga Amurka saboda goyon bayan da take nuna wa haramtaccen yaƙin Rasha. An zarge ta da jigilar wasu makamai zuwa Moscow, ko da yake ta sha musanta zargin.

Gwamnatin Biden tana jiran sakamakon bincike daga jami'an Pretoria, sai dai ayarin lauyoyin Amurka suna buƙatar fadar White House ta hukunta sakamakon yadda ta fifita moriyar da za ta samu daga cinikayyar.

Alex Vines, daraktan cibiyar ƙwararru kan harkokin Afirka da ke Chatham House a London, ya ce Amurka ba wai tana ƙoƙarin nunawa Afirka ɓangaren da za ta ɗauka a rikicin ba ne kamar yadda suka yi a lokacin da Rasha ta fara ƙaddamar da mamaya a Ukraine.

Ƙasashen Afirka da dama sun tsaya kai da fata wajen kaucewa nuna goyon bayan wani ɓangare, matsayin da Amurka ta bayyana da cewar ya samo asali ne daga yaƙin cacar baka kuma hakan ba lallai ne yana nufin nuna goyon baya ga Rasha ba.

Ya ce a yanzu Washington tana buƙatar sanin haƙiƙanin rashin nuna goyon baya, kasancewar matsin lambar da Afirka ta Kudu ke fuskanta a yanzu, zai tabbatar da ko haƙiƙa ba ta karkata wani ɓangare ba.

Mista Ramaphosa shi ne babban jagoran da ke faɗi-tashin neman daidaita al'amura inda ya sha nanata kira ga Mista Putin da Zelensky, da kuma yin ƙarin haske ga Babban Sakataren Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya, Antonio Guterres.

Duk da kasancewar dukkan shugabannin ƙasashen Rasha da na Ukraine babu wanda ya nuna alamun sha'awar shiga tattaunawar sulhu, amma kuma suna da manufa a kan wannan ziyara.

Moscow tana ƙoƙarin neman yin tasiri a Afirka a matsayin wani salon gwada ƙwanji da Ƙasashen Yamma, kuma tana fatan bayyana hakan a wajen taron ƙoli na haɗin gwiwar Rasha da Afirka wanda za a gudanar a birnin St Petersburg cikin watan gobe.

Ukraine tana ta ƙoƙarin neman ƙulla hulɗar diflomasiyya da Afirka.

A baya-bayan nan, ta tura ministan harkokin wajenta zuwa nahiyar don gabatar da ƙoƙon bararta kuma a shirye take ta ƙara samun makamanciyar wannan damar.

Dr Makhubela ya ce mai yiwuwa ne Ukraine za ta yi ƙoƙarin jan ra'ayin masu shiga tsakani na ƙasashen Afirka a kan su kaurace wa taron ƙolin.

"Rasha tana son nuna cewa ita ba saniyar ware ba ce.

Amma muradunta sun sha bamban da na sauran ƙasashe.

Shi ya sa hakan zai haifar da ruɗani ga shugabannin Afirka na shin ko za su halarci taron na St Petersburg," a cewar masanin.

Masu sharhi na ganin taron ƙolin a matsayin wata muhimmiyar alama da ke nuna akwai alaƙa a tsakanin Afirka da Rasha, amma hakan ba yana nufin ra'ayinsu iri ɗaya ba ne.

Wannan na ɗaya daga cikin muhimmancin da shugabanin Afirka za su iya yi wajen wanzar da zaman lafiya a matsayin masu shiga tsakani, kamar yadda Mista Mutiga, yake ganin ɓangarorin ya kamata su amince don zama a teburin sulhu su tattauna.