Ko duniya za ta fuskanci tsadar abinci mafi muni a shekaru masu zuwa?

A Brazil, masoya gahawa, na komawa amfani da hodarsa da ake sayarwa a takarda, yayin da gidajen sayar da abinci a Amurka suka ƙara farashin kwai.

Kama daga man zaitun zuwa lemon jus da cocoa, farashin nau'ikan abinci da dama sun tashi a faɗin duniya a cikin ƴan shekarun da suka gabata.

A duka duniya farashin kayan abinci ya kai matsayin da bai taɓa kaiwa ba, tun bayan mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine a 2022. Sun ɗan sauko, amma har yanzu sun zarta yadda suke a shekara 60 da suka gabata.

Masana na cewa hakan ya faru sakamakon abin da suka kira sauyin zamani.

"Zamanin sauƙin abinci ya ƙare. Dole ne duniya ta koyi rayuwa da wannan sabon yanayi,'' a cewa Rob Vos, babban mai bincike a Cibiyar Bincike Harkokin Abinci ta Duniya (IFPRI).

Yaya tashin farashin yake?

Alƙaluman Hukumar Samar da Abinci ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (FAO) sun nana cewa farashin abinci ya kai matakin da bai taɓa kai wa ba tun bayan mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine a 2022.

FAO ta bibiyi farashin nau'ikan abinci biyar da suka haɗa da man girki da dangin hatsi (shinkafa da masara da dawa da gero alƙama) da nama da masu zaƙi da kuma madara, domin nazarin gamayyar farashin kayyakin.

Alƙaluman sun nuna cewa cikakken farashinsu - wanda ke nufin alƙaluman baki ɗaya - ya kai maƙura a watan Maris ɗin 2022.

Farashin nasu ya sauka a 2023, amma ya sake tashi a hankali cikin shekarar da ta gabata.

José Eustáquio Diniz, ƙwararre a fannin ilimin yawan mutane da tattalin arziki, kuma tsohon malami a Jami'ar Kimiyyar Tattara Alƙaluma ta Brazil ya ce cikin shekara 10 da suka gabata an ga tashin farashin kayan abinci fiye da yadda aka saba gani a zahiri cikin shekara 100 da suka gabata.

Ya ce yana kallon ƙaruwar farashin a matsayin ''mummunan'' hatsari ga wadatar abinci a duniya.

Lokaci na ƙarshe da farashin abinci ya kai maƙura shi ne 1974 da 1975, saboda matsalar ƙarancin man fetur a 1973, wanda ya haifar da ƙaruwar farashin kayayyakin masana'antu, ciki har da farashin abinci da na zirga-zirga.

Tsadar takin zamani

Yaƙin Ukraine ya kawo wa kasuwannin abinci na duniya koma-baya, musamman kasancewar Rasha da Ukraine manyan masu fitar da alkama da man girki, sanann kuma Ukraien ce kan gaba wajen fitar da masara a duniya.

Farashin duka waɗannan kayayyaki sun tashi a farkon 2022 bayan da Rasha ta toshe tasoshin ruwan Ukraine, amma yarjejeniya tsakanin ƙasashen biyu, sannan yadda daga baya aka samar da wasu hanyoyin fiton sun taimaka wa Ukraine komawa fitar da abinci.

Monika Tothova, ƙwararrriya kan tattalin arziki a hukumar FAO, ta ce tasirin bai kai yadda ake fargaba ba.

Haka kuma yaƙin ya sake haifar da wata fargabar ga manoma - farashin taki.

Albarkatun iskar gas babban ma'adini ne na samar da takin zamani. Tuni dai taki ya yi tsada, amma ya sake tashi a 2022 yayin da yaƙin na Ukraine ya tayar da farashin gas, wani abu da ya ƙara wa abinci tsada.

Raguwar noma da ƙaruwar buƙata

"Zamanin arahar abinci ya faro ne daga bunƙasar ayyukan noma a shekaraun 1970'', a cewar Mista Vos na Cibiyar Binciken Harkokin Abinci ta Duniya.

A wannan zamani ne aka amu bunƙasar ayyukan noma da ake yi wa laƙabi da ''green Revolution'' inda aka samu albarkar noma da bunƙasar dabarun noma.

To amma bunƙasar ta samu tasgaro, kuma yayin da aka samu ƙaruwar buƙatar abinci, sai farashin ya fara tashi, kamar yadda ya bayyana.

An riƙa samun ƙaruwar buƙatr abinci a ƙasashe masu tasowa, inda yawan al'ummarsu ke bunƙasa, kuma suke buƙar wasu nau'ikan abinci masu inganci.

"Mutane sun koma cin nama da yawa, da madara da ƴaƴan itatuwa da kuma ganyayyaki,'' a cewar Mista Diniz.

"To amma duk da haka ba a samu ƙarin saffara ire-iren waɗannan nau'ika ba, lamarin da ya sa farashin ya ci gaba da tashi."

Sauyin yanayi

Shi ma sauyin yanayi na da nasa gudunmowar wajen samuwar matsalar. Ƙaruwar zafi ka iya ƙara hauhawar farshi da kusan kashi 3.2 nan da 2035, kamar yadda wani binciken haɗin gwiwar Babban Bankin tarayyar Turai da Cibiyar Kula da Sauyin Yanayi da Potsdam ya nuna a shekarar da ta gabata.

Rahoton Bakin Duniya na 2022 ya ce sauyin yanayi ya rage bunƙasar ayyukan noma cikin shekara 60 da suka gabata.

Bankin Duniyar ya yi gargaɗin samun mummunan illar tasirin sauyin yanayi kan ayyukan noma nan gaba.

Mafi yawan masu sarrafa kayan noma - na cikin halin rashin tabbas kan nau'ikan abubuwan da za su riƙa nomawa'', a cewar Ms Tothova.

Da yawa cikin abubuwan da ake shukawa kamar man zaitun da gahawa da cocoa na cikin hatsarin fuskantar daina shukasu, kamar yadda ta yi ƙarin haske.

Ta ce galibi irin waɗannan itatuwa sukan rayu ne aƙalla shekara biyu kawai, kuma ba a kowace ƙasa ake iya noma su ba.

Alala misalia a 2023 da 2024 frashin man zaitun ya yi tashi gwaron zabo, bayan da mummunan zafi ya shafi ƙasashen yankin kudancin Turai a waɗannan shekaru, lamarin da ya haifar da samun fari a Sifaniya da wasu ƙasashen da ake noma zaitun.

Masana daga ƙungiyar Hasashen Yanayi ta Duniya (WWA) a jami'ar Imperial da ke London sun ce ayyukan bil'adama ne suka haifar da ƙaruwar ɗumamar yanayi.

Haka ma tsananin zafin ya shafi noman gahawa. farashin ƴaƴan gahawar Larabawa ya kai matakin da ba ataɓa gani ba a kasuwannin duniya cikin watan Fabrairu.

Masu bincike daga ƙungiyar WWAsun ce sauyin yanayi ne babban abin da ya janyo bushewar ƙasa a 2023.

Ƙwari da cutuka

A Amurka, cutar murar tsuntsaye da 'avian influenza' ta haifar da asarar miliyoyin kaji.

Farashin kwai ya ninka har fiye da sau uku tun 2021, inda ya kai matakin da ba a taɓa gani ba na dala 6.23 a watan Maris, a cewar alƙaluman ofishin kula da sana'o'i na Amurka.

Donald Trump ya ɗora alhakin hakan kan tsare-tsaren wanda ya gada, Joe Biden, kan tashin farashin kayayyaki, yayin da wasu ƙungiyoyin da wanu ƴan jam'iyyun Demokrats sun nuna damuwa kan zargin cewa masu kiwon kaji na shirya tsawwala farashin.

Haka kuma cutar murar tsuntsaye ta sa farashin kwai ya tashi a shekarun baya-bayan nan, ciki har da Afirka ta Kudu da Australia da japan, duk da cewa tasirin hakan ya bambanta daga ƙasa zuwa ƙasa.

Sannan kuma farashin lemuka ya tashi a baya-bayan nan, in da ya kai matakin da ba ataɓa gani ba cikin watan Satumban da ya gabata.

Monaman lemo a Brazil da Amurka sun fuskanci cikas da cutar 'citrus greening', wata cuta da ke yaɗuwa ta cizon ƙwari, wanda kuma ke kashe bishiyoyin.

Fari a Brazil da guguwa a Florida su ma sun taimaka wajen kawo wa noman cikas. Sai dai a yanzu farashin ya sauka.

Haraji da rashin tabbas a kasuwanci

Matsalolin da ake samu a fanin cinikayya a duniya, ciki har da ƙarin harajin baya-bayan nan da Shugaban Amurka, Donald Trump ya yi kan kayyakin da ke shiga Amurka, ka iya sauya farashin kayan abinci.

Rashin tabbas na ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da ke damun manoma .

''Idan yaƙin kasuwanci ya ɓarke za a iya kasa fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasuwannin duniya, lamarin da zai tilasta musu sake nazarin kasuwancin''.

Yadda ake jin tsadar

Duk da cewa farashin abinci ya sauka a duniya tun 2022, hakan ba yana nufin farashin abincin da ake ci a shaguna ya sauka a ko'ina ba.

Dawit Mekonnen, babban mai binciken tattalin arziki a Bankin Duniya ya ce a asashe da dama, har yanzu farashin abinci bai sauka ba fiye da shekara huɗu kuma hakan ya yi matuƙar tasiri wajen hana wadatuwar abincin.

Matsalar rashin abinci mai gina jiki na karuwa a duniya, a 2017 kashi 7.1 na al'ummar duniya ne ke fama da matsalar, amma a yanzu ya kai kashi 9.1 a cewar alƙaluman FAO.

Fiye da kashi ɗaya ciki uku na al'ummar duniya ba za su iya sayen lafiyayyen abinci ba, ciki har da kashi biyu bisa uku na al'ummar Afirka, a cewar binciken FAO.

Wasu masana tattalin arziki na hasashen raguwar farashin nan da wata 12 masu zuwa, to amma da dama cikin masana na ganin har yanzu akwai sauran rina a kaba.

"Abubuwan da ke haifar da matsalar - ƙaruwar tsadar kayan noma da hanyoyin sufurin kayan, da matsalar sauyin yanayi da tsare-satern kasuwanci - har yanzu ba a magance su ba," kamar yadda Mista Vos ya yi gargaɗi.