Me za a yi domin dakatar da Putin daga yaƙar Ukraine?

Ana ganin Vladimir Putin a cikin shugabanni masu ƙarfin faɗa a ji da rashin tausayi wanda ya iya yin komai domin samun abin da yake so, abu ɗaya da shugaban na Rasha bai iya ba shi shi ne iya ɓoye abin da ke zuciyarsa ba tare da ya nuna a fuskarsa ba.

Tsohon sanatan Amurka John McCain yakan bayyana cikin raha cewa idan ya kalla fuskar Putin, yana ganin abubuwa uku, "a K da a G da a B," inda yake nuni da zamanin da shugaban yake aikin soja a sashen tattara bayanan sirri.

Masu sharhi sun ce Putin yana da kafiya wajen neman abin da yake nema: kamar buƙatarsa ta Ukraine ta haƙura da sauran kashi 20 na birnin Donetsk, da buƙatar dukkan yankunan da sojojinsa suka mamaye su koma Rasha a hukumance, sannan Ukraine ta rage ƙarfin sojinta kuma ba za ta shiga cikin ƙungiyar Nato ba har abada.

A yanzu dai akwai abubuwan da ke faruwa. Na farko dai shi ne Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump zai iya tursasa Ukraine amincewa da yarjejeniyar dakatar da yaƙin ko da kuwa akwai abubuwan da mutanen ƙasar ba sa jin daɗi, musamman yanke sassan ƙasar da hana ƙasar ƙara ƙarfin soja.

Idan Ukraine ta ƙi amincewa, ko kuma Rasha ta hau kujerar na-ƙi, Trump ya ce zai cire hannunsa a yaƙin.

Trump ya bayyana a makon jiya cewa, "wani lokacin dole ka bar mutane kawai su gwabza dimin raba aya da tsakuwa," in ji shi.

Wani abun da zai iya faruwa kuma shi ne wataƙila Rasha ta ci gaba da kutsawa a hankali zuwa gabashin ƙasar ta Ukraine.

Sabon daftarin tsare-tsaren tsaron Amurka na mulkin Trump ya nuna cewa ƙasar ba ta fuskantar barazana daga Rasha, "sannan ya umarci hukumomin Amurka su gyara alaƙa da Rasha."

Wannan kuwa ba ƙaramar barazana ba ce ga Ukraine da shugaban ƙasarta a game da yaƙin.

Rawar da Tayyar Turai za ta taka

Idan Amurka ta ƙi bayar da taimakon soji, shin ƙasashen Turai za su iya taka wata muhimmiyar yawa?

A yanzu dai ana maganar tsagaita yaƙin ne, sannan nahiyar na ƙoƙarin shirya yadda sojojin ƙasashen duniya za su taimaka wa Ukraine wajen hana Rasha kutsawa ƙasar a gaba, da ma tallafin kuɗaɗe domin sake gina yankunan da yaƙin ya illata.

Sai dai wasu masu sharhi suna ganin ya fi kamata ƙasashen turai su fara shirin fuskantar yaƙi ne kawai na kamar shekara 15 zuwa 20.

Tarayyar turai ma za ta iya kare Ukraine daga hare-haren jirage marasa matuƙa na Rasha. Tuni sun fara shirye-shirye a ɓangaren ta hanyar fitar da tsarin da ake kira European Sky Shield Initiative.

Wasu kuma na ganin ya kamata a tura sojojin ƙasa zuwa yammacin ƙasar Ukraine domin kare bakin iyakokin ƙasar, domin sojojin Ukraine su samu damar gwabza yaƙi.

Sai dai wannan tsarin zai yi matuƙar wahalar gaske saboda akwai wasu ƙasashen yammacin turai da ba sa son abin da zai haɗa su rigima da Rasha.

Amma wasu masu sharhi suna ganin ita kanta Ukraine za ta yi ƙoƙarin kanta domin samun wasu nasarorin daban.

Na yi makonni a kwanakin baya a Ukraine, a zaman da na yi, ban ji maganar mayar da hare-hare ba, face yunƙurin rage ƙarfin hare-haren Rasha.

Amma wasu masana diflomasiyya sun ce manyan hafsoshin sojin Rasha suna yi wa shugaban Rasha ƙaryar cewa komai na tafiya daidai ne a yaƙin da suke yi da Ukraine.

A cewar Thomas Graham a sashen harkokin ƙasashen waje, a wannan shekara, Rasha ta ƙwace kashi 1 ne kawai na yankin Ukraine.

Fiona Hill masani a sashen Amurka da Turai a cibiyar Brookings, wanda ya yi aiki da cibiyar tsaron Amurka a gwamnatin Trump a wa'adinsa na farko, ya ce babbar nasarar Putin ita ce yadda wasu mutane suke ganin kamar Ukraine ce take rashin nasara.

"Amma ka duba ka ga abin da ita ma ta yi wa Rasha ɗin. Amma abin ban mamaki ne yadda sojojinta suka dage a yaƙin na tsawon lokaci."

Kasuwanci, takunkumi da tattalin arzikin Rasha

Akwai na'ukan takunkumi da suka jefa tattalin arzikin Rasha cikin tasku. Farashin kayayyakin ƙasar ya tashi da kashi 8, kuɗin ruwa ya kai kashi 16 da rashin kuɗin gudanar da kasafin kuɗi da sauran matsalolin tattalin arziki.

Sai dai duk da waɗannan matsalolin, babu alamar Rasha na tunanin canja tunani ko rage abin da take yi, saboda ta ɗan samu hanyar rage raɗaɗin matsalolin da tattalin arzikin ke ciki.

Akwai kuma makuɗan kuɗaɗen kusan fam biliyan 200 na Rasha da ƙasashen turai suka ƙwace da za su iya taimakawa wajen sake gina yankunan Ukraine da yaƙin ya illata.

Tuni gwamnatin Ukraine ta fara hanƙoron samun wannan kuɗaɗen, amma Tarayyar Turai na jan ƙafa.

Ƙasar Belgium wadda mafi yawan kuɗin na Rasha ya fi yawa ƙasarta tana fargabar shiga rikici ko yiwuwar fara shari'a da Rasha, sannan ko a makon jiya babban bankin Rasha ya yi barazanar shigar da ƙara.

Har yanzu dai shugabannin ƙasashen turai ba su yanke shawara ba, amma nan gaba kaɗan za su sake zama a ranar 18 ga Disamba a Brussels domin ɗaukar mataki.

Aikin sojan tilas a Ukraine

A nata ɓangare, ita dai Ukraine tana ƙara yunƙurin ƙarfafa ɓangaren jami'an tsaronta ne.

Ita ce ƙasa ta biyu mafi girman sojojin ƙasa a turai bayan Rasha.

Amma bayan kusan shekara huɗu ana gwabza yaƙi, dole sojoji da dama sun gaji, sannan wau da dama sun gudu.

Amma har yanzu ba a samun matasan da ake buƙata domin cike gurbin da ake nema a aikin na soja, amma ana tunanin Ukraine za ta faɗaɗa dokokinta na tilasta shiga aikin soja.

A yanzu maza da suke tsakanin shekara 25 zuwa 60 ne suke zuwa yaƙi, lamarin da masana suke ganin ya kamata ƙasar ta fara amfani da matasanta ƴan tsakankanin shekara 20.

Hare-hare, diflomasiyya da Trump

Idan Ukraine za ta iya haɗawa da sayo makamai masu cin dogon zango, za ta iya kai farmaki mai zafi a Rasha.

A wannan shekarar ta kai hare-hare a yankunan Rasha, inda ko a wannan watan wani kwamandan sojin Ukraine ya bayyana wa Radio Liberty cewa sun kai farmaki a sama da rabin cibiyoyin man fetur guda 50 a Rasha.

Daraktan cibiyar Carnegie a Rasha, Alexander Gabuev ya ce wasu ƴan Rasha sun fuskanci matsalar rashin makamashi a farkon wannan shekarar.

"Zuwa ƙarshen watan Oktoba, jiragen Ukraine marasa matuƙa sun kai farmaki kan kusan rabin cibiyoyin makamashin Rasha guda 38."

Sai dai kuma masu sharhi suna ganin akwai hanyoyin diflomasiyya da za a yi bi domin samun maslaha, inda suke ganin idan aka ba Putin wasu damarmaki na diflomasiyya, zai iya amincewa.

Misali idan aka samu yarjejeniyar cewa kowace ƙasa ta samu wasu abubuwan da take so, misali a samu yankunan da za a raba da sojoji, amma ba tare da yanke su a hukumance ba, a ba sojojin Ukraine damar kare bakin iyakarta ba tare da neman taimakon ƙasashen waje ba, amma ba za su shiga Nato ba.

Sai dai duk wata yarjejeniyar na buƙatar amincewar Amurka ta shiga kuma ta dage a kan cimma yarjejeniyar.

Rawar da China za ta taka

China ce za ta iya zama raba-gardama. Shugaban China Xi Jinping na cikin shugabannin duniya da Putin yake girmamawa. Lokacin da Xi ya yi gargaɗi a game da yaƙin a farko-farko, an ga yadda Rasha ta ɗan ɗaga ƙafa.

Haka kuma Rasha tana ta'allaƙa sosai da kayayyakin da take samu daga China, don haka idan China ta yanke shawarar cewa za ta cire hannu a yaƙin, hakan zai iya shafar Rasha sosai.

Har yanzu dai babu alamar Amurka na so ne ta tursasa China ta mata wa Rasha lamba.

Yanzu dai China na farin cikin ganin yadda lamarin yake ɗaukar hankalin Amurka, da ma farin cikin ganin yadda ƙasashen duniya suke ganin ita ce za ta iya zama raba-gardama.

Amma yaƙin Ukraine ɗin ya ƙara ta'azzara har ya janyo tsaiko a kasuwancin duniya, har ya kai Amurka ta ƙara takunkumin kasuwanci ga China saboda sayar wa Rasha da makamashi, dole tunanin Beijing ɗin ya canja.