PDP ko APC: Wace jam'iyya ce ta fi ƙarfi a lokacin ganiyarta?

Jam'iyyar APC mai mulki a Najeriya na cigaba da tumbatsa da yin kane-kane a harkokin siyasar ƙasar.

Manya da ƙananan ƴan siyasa, daga gwamnoni zuwa sanatoci da ƴan majalisar tarayya da na jihohi na jam’iyyun adawa na ta tururuwar komawa cikin ta, lamarin da ya kai ga wasu ƴan siyasa ke fargabar cewa ƙasar na neman komawa tsarin jam’iyya ɗaya.

Sai dai wasu sun nuna cewa duk ƙarfin da APC take da shi a yanzu, a baya PDP ma ta samu irin shi, ta tumɓatsa kafin ta fara fashewa, har ta kai matsayin da take a yanzu na rashin tabbas.

Duk da cewa PDP ce ta zo ta biyu a babban zaɓen ƙasar na 2023, amma ya zuwa yanzu ta yi asarar wasu daga cikin jigoginta, kamar ɗan takararta na shugaban ƙasa Atiku Abubakar, da wanda ya mara masa baya a takarar, Ifeanyi Okowa, inda suka sauya sheƙa.

Ya za a kwatanta ƙarfi da tumbatsar manyan jam'iyyun biyu da suka yi kane-kane a siyasar Najeriya tun bayan komawarta mulkin dimokuraɗiyya a shekarar 1999?

Tashen jam’iyyar PDP

A shekarar 1998 ne aka ƙirƙiri jam'iyyar PDP, inda wasu ƴan siyasa da ƴan gwagwarmaya suka tsara ta a lokacin da Najeriya ke shirin komawa tsarin dimokuradiyya a jamhuriya ta huɗu, bayan mulkin soji a ƙasar.

A watan Fabarairu ne aka yi babban zaɓen ƙasar na Jamhuriya ta huɗu, inda dan takarar jam’iyyar ta PDP Olusegun Obasanjo ya samu nasara, sannan Atiku Abubakar ya mara masa baya a matsayin mataimaki.

A babban zaɓe na gaba a shekarar 2003, bayan nasara a zaben shugaban kasa, PDP ta lashe kujera 223 cikin 360 na majalisar wakilai da kujera 76 cikin 109 a majalisar dattawa.

A zaɓen 2007, Umaru Musa Yar'adu ne lashe zaɓen da aka yi a watan Mayu, inda ya doke Muhammadu Buhari. Jam'iyyar ta lashe kujera 260 a cikin 360 a majalisar wakilai, da 85 cikin 109 majalisar dattijai.

A taƙaice sai da PDP ta yi shekara 16 a jere a tsakanin 1999 zuwa 2015.

Faɗuwa

A watan Disamban 2008, shugaban PDP na wancan lokacin, Cif Vincent Ogbulafor ya sanar da cewa jam'iyyar za ta yi mulki na shekara 60 ne a Najeriya.

Amma tun bayan babban zaɓen 2015 da Muhammadu Buhari ya doke shugaban da ke kan mulki Goodluck Jonathan, sai jam'iyyar ta fara tangal-tangal.

A zaɓen 2023 ne jam'iyyar ta shiga rigima mafi muni bayan zaɓen fitar da ɗan takara, inda bayan Atiku Abubakar ya samu nasara a zaben fitar da gwani, sai Nyesom Wike ya nuna rashin amincewarsa, sannan ya jagoranci wasu gwamnoni biyar wajen yaƙi da jam'iyyar.

Tuni Atiku ya fice daga PDP ya koma ADC, sannan wanda ya mara masa baya a takarar, Ifeanyi Okowa ya koma APC.

Sannan a cikin gwamnoni 13 da jam'iyyar ke da su bayan zaɓen na 2023, yanzu huɗu ne kawai suke rage: Ahmadu Fintiri na Adamawa da Bala Mohammed na Bauchi da Seyi Makinde da Oyo da Dauda Lawal Zamfara, sannan akwai raɗe-raɗin wasu za su iya ficewa.

Haka kuma akwai jiga-jigan da jam'iyyar ta rasa ƴan majalisun dattijai da wakilai da na jihohi, sannan uwa-uba, yanzu jam'iyyar na cikin rikicin shugabanci, inda take fata INEC ta amince da sababbin shugabannin jam'iyyar.

Tashen jam’iyyar APC

A shekarar 2013 ne aka kafa jam'iyyar haɗaka ta APC, inda manyan jam'iyyun adawa na kasar suka cure wuri daya domin kalubalantar jam’iyyar PDP mai mulki.

Jam'iyyun da suka haɗu su ne ACN a ƙarƙashin jagorancin Bola Tinubu, da CPC a ƙarƙashin Marigayi Muhammadu Buhari da ANPP a ƙarƙashin Ibrahim Shekarau da tsagin APGA a ƙarƙashin Rochas Okorocha.

A ranar 9 ga watan Disamban 2013 ne haɗakar ta ƙara ƙarfi, bayan gwamnonin PDP biyar - Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto) da Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) da Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) da Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano) da Rotimi Amaechi na Rivers suka ɓalle daga PDP, sannan suka koma APC daga baya.

A zaɓen 2015, Muhammadu Buhari ya doke Goodluck Jonathan wanda ke kan mulki, inda APC ta samu kusan kashi 55 na ƙuri'a.

Sai dai jam'iyyar ta ɗan fuskanci matsala a wa'adin Buhari na farko, inda ya kasance shugabannin majalisun dokokin ƙasar ƴan PDP ne: Bukola Saraki a majalisar dattijai da Yakubo Dogara a majalisar wakilai.

A zaɓen 2019 Buhari ya sake samun nasara, amma a lokacin, APC ta ƙara ƙarfi, inda ta samun rinjaye a majalisun guda biyu.

Sannan a shekarar 2023 Bola Tinubu ya doke Atiku Abubakar, wanda ya zama shi ne nasara ta uku a jere.

A zaɓen da 2023 aka yi, APC ta samu gwamnoni 20 ne, PDP ta samu 13. Amma zuwa yanzu (Janairun 2026) gwamnonin PDP da suka koma hannun APC su ne Peter Mbah (Enugu), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Douye Diri (Bayelsa) da Caleb Muftwanga (Filato).

Bayan wannan kuma, a ranar 14 ga watan Oktoban 2025 ne Sanata Samaila Dahuwa na Bauchi ta arewa ya koma APC daga PDP.

Komawarsa ce ta sa APC ta samu kujera guda 73 a cikin kujera 109, wanda shi ne daidai biyu bisa ukun ƴan majalisar da jam'iyya ke buƙata domin samun mafi rinjaye.

Kamanceceniya tsakanin APC da PDP

Dokta Kabiru Sufi, masanin kimiyyar siyasa kuma malami a kwalejin share fagen shiga jami'a a Kano, ya ce jam’iyyun APC mai mulkin Najeriya a yanzu da PDP, wadda ta mulki kasar a baya suna kama da juna.

Sufi ya ce jam'iyyun biyu sun yi sharafi a lokuta mabambanta, ''PDP ta fara samun tagomashi da bunƙasa ne tun a lokacin gwagwarmaya domin karɓe mulki daga hannun sojoji. Asali ƙungiya ce, sai ta rikiɗe zuwa jam'iyya."

Masanin harkokin siyasar ya ce PDPn ta fara da ƙarfi ne kasancewar akwai jiga-jigan ƴan siyasa da suka taka rawa a siyasar jamhuriya ta biyu da ta uku, "kuma a lokacin ana buƙatar mutane jajirtattu saboda sojoji za a fuskanta."

Ya ce PDP ta samu ƙarfi da bunƙasa, har tagomashin ya sa jiga-jiganta suka fara hanƙoron yin mulki na aƙalla shekara 60, amma aka yanke musu hanzari tun a shekara 16.

A ɓangaren APC, masanin ya ce ita ma an kafa ta ne ta hanyar haɗakar wasu jiga-jigan ƴan siyasa da suka yi zargin cewa PDP ta fara kaucewa daga asalin turbar dimokuraɗiyya.

"Wannan ne ya sa suke ganin akwai buƙatar su haɗu domin samar mata da kishiya da ma ƙwace mulki daga hannunta."

Kabiru Sufi ya ce ita ma ta kai lokacin da ƴan siyasa suke ganin sai a PDP ne za su iya samun nasara, kuma ake ganin ba za a iya karɓe mulki a hannunta ba.

"Don haka dukkansu akwai babban dalilin kafa su, PDP ta ƙalubalanci sojoji domin komawa dimokuraɗiyya, ita kuma APC ta ƙalubalanci abin da ake wa kallon tauye tsarin dimokuraɗiyya da ake zargin wasu a jam’iyyar PDP na yi."

'Da na gaba ake gane zurfin ruwa'

A yanzu da APC take sharafinta sosai, wasu na ganin kamar ta yi tumbatsa da ƙarfin da sai gani sai hange, lamarin da masanin ya ce ana iya gane zurfin ruwa daga na gaba.

"Akwai darussa sosai da suka kamata APC ta ɗauka daga PDP.

“Ɗaya shi ne a bar dimokuraɗiyya ta yi tasiri a cikin jam'iyyar, sannan a daina daƙile hamayya a cikin gida, da ma tauye jam'iyyun hamayya," in ji Sufi.

Ya ƙara cewa ɗauko kowane irin mutum ya shiga jam'iyyar na da nasa ƙalubalen, "Idan aka ce kowane irin mutum ana buƙatarsa, za a zo a tara mutane da aƙidarsu ba ɗaya ba ce, kuma sai su kasa zama tare."

“Tumbatsa ce ta sa PDP ta fara jin kanta, kuma idan APC ta bi wannan hanyar, babu mamaki idan ta faɗa halin da PDP ta shiga."

Sufi ya ce hamayya ce ke ƙara wa dimokuraɗiyya armashi da karsashi, "amma idan ka duba za ka ga akwai jam'iyyun hamayya, amma kuma guda ɗaya ta yi kaka-gida kuma a siyasa akwai aikin ƴan hamayya, musamman wajen jan hankalin masu mulki."