Misire zigema kure mu Burusiya zishobora kugira izihe nkurikizi ku ntambara ya Ukraine?

Abategetsi ba Amerika bavuga ko perezida Joe Biden yemereye Ukraine gukoresha misire ubutegetsi bwa Washington bwayihaye, kugira igeme ibwina mu Burusiya.

Ubutegetsi bwa Amerika bwari bwaranse ko misire zakorewe muri ico gihugu zo mu bwoko bwa ATACMS zahawe Ukraine zokoreshwa muri ivyo bitero, kubera batinya ko bishobora gutuma iyo ntambara itandukira ahandi.

Iyo ngingo yo kwisubirako ije amezi abiri imbere y’uko perezida Joe Biden abisikanya ku butegetsi na Donald Trump, itorwa ryiwe ryatumye bamwe bagira amakenga kuri kazoza k’ubufasha bwa Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ku butegetsi bwa Kiyv.

Kuki Amerika yemereye Ukraine gukoresha ibisasu vya misire birasa kure hagati mu Burusiya?

Ukraine imaze umwaka urenga ikoresha ibisasu vya misire zo mu bwoko bwa ATACMS mu kurasa ku nyungu z’Uburusiya mu turere bwifatiye two muri Ukraine.

Ibikoresho vya gisirikare vya leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika bisanzwe bikoreshwa hagati mu Burusiya - mu gace ka Kursk kari ku rubibe, nk’uko bitangazwa n’ibinyamakuru vyaho.

Ariko leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ntizari bwigere zemerera ubutegetsi bwa Kiyv gukoresha misire za ATACMS indani mu Burusiya - kugeza ubu.

Ukraine yari yavuze ko kutemererwa gukoresha ivyo bigwanisho hagati mu Burusiya ari nko gusabwa kuja kurwana n’ukuboko kumwe, ukundi kuboheye imugongo.

Uko guhindura umugambi kuje nk’ukwishura ku muzo w’abasirikare ba Koreya ya Ruguru bagiye gufasha Uburusiya mu karere ka Kursk kuva muri Myandagaro (mu kwezi kw’umunani).

Ikindi kandi, kuba Donald Trump agiye gusubira vuba mu biro vya perezida -White House, biteye impungenge bamwe, z’ukugene imigenderanire hagati Amerika na Ukraine izoba imeze mu bihe biri imbere, kandi perezida Biden biboneka ko yiteguye gukora ukwo ashoboye kwose ngo afashe mu kanya gato asigaranye ku butegetsi.

Kuri bamwe - gushigikira Ukraine mu vya gisirikare - bishobora guha igihagararo ico gihugu mu biganiro vy'amahoro bishobora kuba.

Perezida wa Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky ntaremeza neza iyo ngingo.

Ariko yavuze ku munsi w’Imana ati: “Ibitero ntibikorwa mu majambo…Misire ubwazo zizokwivugira.”

ATACMS n'iki?

Ibisasu bizwi nka ‘Army Tactical Missile System’ n’ibisasu vyo mu bwoko bwa ‘ballistic missiles’ bihabwa intego n’inzira bikurikira, bigashobora kurasa kuri kilometero amajana atatu (300km/186 miles) kandi iyo ntera bishobora gushikira ni yo ituma bija mu mutigiri w’ibirwanisho Ukraine ikeneye cane.

Ivyo bisasu vyakozwe n’uruganda Lockheed Martin, biterwa hakoreshejwe uburyo bwa ‘Lance Rocket M270 (multiple Launch Rocket System -MLRS), canke M142 (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System- HIMARS). Misire imwe imwe ifise agaciro ka miliyoni 1.5 z'amadolari ($1.5m / £1.2m).

ATACMS zitwarwa na rokete (rocket) zikabanza kuduga mu kirere zikurikira inzira y’umurongo uhese (ballistic path) zahawe, imbere yo kumanuka n’inguvu nyinshi ndetse n’umuvuduko munini, bigatuma bigorana kuzitangira

Zishobora guhindurwa ku buryo zitwara ubwoko bubiri bw’ibisasu. Ica mbere kiba ari igisasu gitekeye ibindi basasu bitobito (bomblets) bigera kw’ijana, bishobora gusambura ibindi birwanisho vy’imitamenwa kandi ku ntera ndende.

Ibi bishobora kubamwo indege zihagaze, ibirwanisho vyo kwikingira ibitero vyo mu kirere hamwe n’ingabo nyinshi zirundanye ahantu hamwe.

Ibisasu bitekeye ibindi (cluster warheads) n’ubwo bifise akamaro, bishobora gusiga inyuma bimwe muri ivyo bisasu bito bito bitaturitse, bigateza impanuka no mu gihe c’inyuma y’intambara.

Ubwoko bwa kabiri bugizwe n’igisasu kimwe, gifise uburemere bwa 225Kg gikaze cane mu guturika, cagenewe guturitsa ibibanza vyubatse mu buryo bukomeye canke binini binini.

ATACMS ni ibirwanisho bimaze igihe kitari gito bikoreshwa. Vyatanguye gukoreshwa ubwa mbere mu 1991 mu ntambara yo mu kigobe c’abarabu (gulf war)

Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ziriko zibisubiriza n'ubundi buryo bushasha bw'igihe ca none bugizwe n’ibisasu binyaruka kandi bihwahutse gusumba, bishobora kurasa ku kirere ca 500km (Precision Strike Missile). Mugabo nta ho bivugwa ko Ukraine izoronka no kuri ibi na vyo.

Ni izihe nkurikizi ivyo bisasu bizogira ku rubuga rw'intambara?

Ukraine ubu izoshobora gutumbereza mu bitero vyayo vyo hagati na hagati mu Burusiya, aho vyitezwe cane ko aho ihera ari mu micungararo ya Kursk, aho ingabo za Ukraine zimaze gufata akarere ka kirometerokare igihumbi (1000km2).

Ukraine na Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika vyiteze ko Uburusiya na Koreya ya ruguru bisubiza kugirango bigarure igice ca Kursk.

Ukraine ishobora gukoresha misire za ATACMS kugirango yirwaneko, igatumbereza ku birindiro vy’Uburusiya birimwo ibigo vya gisirikare, inyubako zitandukanye n’ububiko bw’ibirwanisho.

Ibirwanisho bizohabwa Ukraine bishobora kuba bidakwiye kugirango ishobore gusubiza ibintu mu buryo muri iyi ntambara.

Ibikoresho vya gisirikare vy’Uburusiya, nk’indege, vyarigijweyo bishirwa indani hagati mu gihugu, mu kwitanga iyo ngingo.

Ariko rero, kwigiza ibirwanisho kure y’ahabera urugamba bishobora kutorohereza ingabo z’Uburusiya na burya amayira ashika ku rugamba akoreshwa cane, na yo gukoresha ayo mu kirere na vyo bigatevya.

Ivyo birwanisho bishobora gutuma Ukraine yoroherwa mu gihe ingabo z’Uburusiya zari zimaze iminsi zagura ikirere mu buseruko, ivyasa n’ivyaciye inkokora ingabo za Ukraine.

Umwe mu baserukira ibihugu vyo mu burengerazuba bw’isi i Kiyv atashimye kumenyakana imyirondoro, yabwiye BBC ati “sinibaza ko izoba ari ingingo ntabanduka”

"Ariko rero, n’ingingo yari yageze gufata kuva kera, nk’ikimenyetso co kugaragaza gufata mu mugongo Ukraine.

"Ishobora kwongera uburemere bw’ikiguzi Uburusiya buriko buratanga muri iyi ntambara."

Hari ikibazo kandi co kumenya igitigiri c’ibirwanisho bizotangwa nk’uko bivugwa na Evelyn Farkas, yahoze ari icegera c’umushikiranganji wo kwivuna abansi ku butegetsi bwa Obama.

Agira ati:“Ikibazo ni, bafise misire zingana gute? Twarumvise ko ubutegetsi bwa gisirikare bwa Amerika (the Pentagon) bwagabishije ko ata misire nyinshi zo muri ubu bwoko zihari zo guha Ukraine.”

Farkas yongerako ko misire za ATACMS zishobora kugira ingaruka nziza ku nyifato ya Ukraine ziramutse zikoreshejwe mu kurasa ku bibanza bimwe bimwe nk’ikiraro ca Kerch gihuza akarere ka Crimea n’igice kinini c’Uburusiya.

Uruhusa rwa Amerika ruzogira n’izindi nkurikizi: aho vyitezwe ko ruzotuma n’ibihugu vy’Ubwongereza n’Ubufaransa bikurikira mu guha uburenganzira Ukraine bwo gukoresha misire za 'Storm Shadow' hagati mu Burusiya.

Storm Shadow ni misire zirasa kure zifise ubushobozi bumwe n’ubwa ATACMS za Amerika.

Ibi bishobora gutuma intambara yiyongera ?

Ubutegetsi bwa Biden bwari bwahakanye guha uburenganzira Ukraine bwo gutera Uburusiya bakoresheje ibisasu vya misire birasa kure, ku gutinya ko intambara yotera ikomera.

Vladimir Putin yaragabishije ko kwemera ko ibirwanisho biturutse mu bihugu vyo mu burengerazuba bw’isi bikoreshwa ku Burusiya, vyohava bifatwa n’Uburusiya ko buriko buragwana imbona nkubone n’ibihugu vy’urunani OTAN/NATO muri iyi ntambara ya Ukraine.

Muri Nyakanga (9), Putin yavuze ko “vyoca bihindura impamvu n’imero y’iyi ntambara. Ati “vyoba bisobanuye ko ibihugu vyo mu muryango NATO, Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’ibihugu vya Bulaya, biriko birwanya Uburusiya.”

Uburusiya bwari bwaciye mbere, ico bwise ‘imirongo itukura’. Muri iyo harimwo guha Ukraine ibimodokari vy’intambara vy’ubuhinga buteye imbere n’indege z’intambara. Uwo murongo waramaze kurengwa, ariko ntivyatumye NATO itana mu mitwe n’Uburusiya.

Kurt Volker, yahoze aserukira Amerika muri NATO, yavuze ati: “Mu kubuza Ukraine gukoresha bimwe mu birwanisho vyayo, Amerika yari yashizeho amategeko atumvikanyweko yo kubuza Ukraine kwirwanako”.

Yongerako ko ingingo yo kubuza ikoreshwa rya ATACMS ‘ataco yari ishingiyeko kandi yafashwe kubera ubwoba bwo gusotora Uburusiya.’

Ati:“Ariko rero, ni ikosa kuvugira ayo mahinduka y’iyi ngingo ku mugaragaro, kuko biza nk'imburi ku Burusiya, ko Ukraine ishobora kuyigabako ibitero mu gihe kiri imbere.

Donald Trump azovyifatamwo gute?

Ni ingingo ije imbere y'amezi abiri gusa ngo Donald Trump asubire ku butegetsi.

Yaramaze kuvuga ko yifuza kurangiza iyi ntambara ya Ukraine mu buryo bwitondewe - ariko ntiyatomoye neza uko azobikora - kandi ashobora kubuza ikoreshwa ry’ivyo bigwanisho vya misire mu gihe yomara gushika ku butegetsi.

Trump, aheruka gutsindira kuba prezida, ntaravuga nimba azobandanya uwo mugambi, ariko benshi muri ba somambike biwe baramaze kuwunegura.

Umuhungu wiwe Donald Trump Jr, yanditse ku rubuga hwaniro ati: “urunani rw’ubucuruzi rw’ivya gisirikare rusa nk’aho ruriko rushaka kuzana intambara ya gatatu y’Isi imbere y’uko Data ashikira amahirwe yo kuzana amahoro no kurokora ubuzima bw’abantu.”

Abenshi mu bategetsi bo hejuru ba Trump, nk’uwuzoba icegera ciwe JD Vance, bavuga ko Amerika itari ikwiye kwongera Ukraine iyindi mfashanyo ya gisirikare.

Ariko abandi mu bazoba kumwe na we mu butegetsi ntibabibona uko.

Michael Waltz, umuhanuzi ku vy’umutekano ku rwego rw’igihugu, we avuga ko Amerika yari ikwiye kwihutisha ahubwo kuronsa Ukraine imfashanyo y’ibirwanisho, kugira ngo igondoze Uburusiya kuja mu biganiro.

Uruhande perezida azohengamirako ntiruraboneka neza. Ariko benshi muri Ukraine barafise amakenga ko azoca ahagarika imfashanyo y’ibirwanisho harimwo n’ivyo vya misire ATACMS.

Oleksiy Goncharenko, umushingamateka wo muri Ukraine yabwiye BBC ati: “Turafise ubwoba. Twizeye ko [Trump] atazosubiza ibuti [iyo ngingo]”.