Koko harashobora kwaduka intambara ya nikleyeri hagati y'Ubuhindi na Pakistani?

Mu ntambara iheruka ubu bwa vuba hagati y'Ubuhindi na Pakistani, nta vyo kugabishanya ubwa nyuma vyabaye canke uruhande rwoba rwarakangishije gufyonda imbarutso ya nikleyeri.

Yamara rero, urukurikirane rw'ukwihora gisirikare, ukugerana amajanja mu buryo bwihishije, n'ukungene abahuza mvamakungu baciye bihutira kuja hagati, vyasubiye kwibutsa icuka kibi gishobora gukwega akarambaraye muri ako karere.

Izi ntureka ziheruka hagati y'ibi bihugu bibiri bitunze ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri, canke ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara, ntizavuyemwo intambara ya nikleyeri, ariko zibukije ukungene icuka kibi gishobora kwunyuka mu kanya isase kigateza ako kaga.

Eka n'abahinga barigana ukungene ibintu bishobora kuyangara mu buryo bworoshe. Icigwa co muri 2019 cakozwe n'umurwi w'abahinga carerekanye congera cigana ukungene igitero c'iterabwoba ku nama nshingamateka y'Ubuhindi mu 2025 gishobora kuba imbarutso yo kurasana na Pakistani hakoreshejwe ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara.

Inyuma y'imyaka itandatu, habaye ugukozanyako nyakwo, nubwo amasezerano yo guhagarika intambara yahagarariwe na Amerika yaciye ahagarika imishamirano, ariko ibi vyatumye haba ubwoba ko hashobora kwaduka intambara ikomeye. Vyibukije kandi abantu ukuntu umutekano muri ako karere ushobora guhungabana, naho hokwaduka akantu gato gusa.

Igihe ibintu vyunyuka muri iyi mishanirano, Pakistani yatanze ubutumwa bubiri butandukanye: kwishura mu buryo bwa gisirikare, ariko ica ihamagaza inama y'urwego rujejwe kugenzura ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri, ruzwi nka National Command Authority (NCA), inama yari nk'iyo kwibutsa ubushobozi bwa Pakistani bwo gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri.

NCA ni yo ishinzwe igenzura n'ingene ivyo birwanisho vyoshobora gukoreshwa. Nta wuzi nimba yari amayeri ya poritike, yo gukangira, canke ryari igabisha nyaryo. Vyabaye kandi mu gihe havugwa ko Umushikiranganji wa Amerika ajejwe imigenderanire, Marco Rubio, yaciye abanguka gusukamwo mabisi.

Perezida Trump avuga ko Amerika itahagarikiye ihagarikwa ry'intambara gusa, ko ahubwo yatesheje intambara ya nikleyeri. Ku wa mbere, mw'ijambo yashikirije igihugu, umushikiranganji wa mbere w'Ubuhindi Narendra Modi yagize ati: "[Nta vyo] gukangisha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri; Ubuhinde ntibuzoterwa ubwoba n'iterabwoba ry'ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri".

Yongeyeko ati: "Ahantu hose hazoba hari abagizi ba nabi bazokwitwaza ibi kugira bakore iterabwoba, aho hantu hazokubitwa ubudahusha kandi bikomeye".

Ubuhindi na Pakistani kimwe kimwe cose gitunze ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara vyababa 170, nk'uko bivugwa n'ikigo c'abahinga Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).

Gushika muri Nzero (1) 2024, Sipri yavuga ko kw'isi hari ibisasu ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara vyashika 12.121 kw'isi yose. Muri ibi, ivyababa 9.585 vyari mu bubiko bwa gisirikare, 3.904 bikaba biteguwe kugira bikoreshwe umwanya n'umwanya – ibi bikaba bisigura ko hiyongereyeko 60 ugereranije n'umwaka w'imbere y'aho. Amerika n'Uburusiya bikaba bitunze ibirenga 8000 uteranije vyose hamwe.

Vyinshi mu bitunzwe n'Ubuhindi na Pakistani vyarungitswe mu ngabo zavyo zikoresha ibisasu vya misile birasirwa ku butaka, nubwo vyompi biriko birahingura ibikoho vya muzinga bishobora kurekura ibisasu vya nikleyeri ku butaka, mu kirere no mu mazi, nk'uko bivugwa na Christopher Clary, umuhinga mu vy'umutekano muri kaminuza ya Albany muri Amerika.

Yabwiye BBC ati: "Ubuhindi bushobora kuba bufise indege nyinshi zishobora kwikorera ibisasu n'ibibombe vya nikleyeri gusumba Pakistani. Nubwo tutazi vyinshi ku bijanye n'amato ashobora kwikorera ibisasu vya nikleyeri ya Pakistani, biratahuritse gufata ko amato y'Ubuhindi ateye imbere kandi afise ubushobozi gusumba inguvu za nikleyeri za Pakistani mu mazi".

Imvo imwe, nk'uko Clary abivuga, ni uko Pakistan itigeze ikoresha umwanya canke amafaranga bingana n'ivyo Ubuhindi bwakoresheje mu kwubaka ubwato bwa gisirikare bugendeshwa n'inguvu za nikleyeri, ibituma Ubuhindi bugira ububasha bwisumbuye ku bijanye n'ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri bishobora gukoresha mu mazi.

Kuva igihe yagerageza ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri mu 1998, Pakistani ntiyigeze ishira ku mugaragaro amabwirizwa ajanje n'ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri.

Ariko ku rundi ruhande, Ubuhinde bwobwo bwafashe poritike yo kuba atari bwo buzotangura kubikoresha kuva bugerageje ivyabwo mu 1998. Ariko ibi bisa n'ivyatanguye guhinduka. Mu 2003, Ubuhindi bwihaye uburenganzira bwo gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri mu kwishura ku bitero vy'isumu canke ubumara – ibi bikayiha uburenganzira bwo kuba ubwa mbere mu kurasa hakoreshejwe ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri mu bihe kanaka.

Mu 2016, umushikiranganji w'ukwivuna abansi w'Ubuhindi ico gihe, Manohar Parrikar, yavuze ijambo ryongereje impari, mu kuvuga ko Ubuhindi budakwiye kwama buzibirwa n'iyi poritike. Mu nyuma yavuze ko cari iciyumviro ciwe ariko abatari bake baribajije nimba koko iyo poritike izokwamaho igihe kirekire.

Nubwo ata mabwirizwa ngenderwako ahari, ntibisigura ko Pakistani atayo ifise – amatangazo asohorwa na reta, ibiganiro n'abanyamakuru hamwe n'ihingurwa ry'ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri, ni ibintu bitanga ibimenyetso bitomoye ku bijanye n'ingene yiteguriye kubikoresha, nk'uko bivugwa na Sadia Tasleem wo mu kigo Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Naho Pakistani itigeze itangaza ku mugaragaro igihe ishobora gukoresha ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara, umutegetsi wo hejuru muri ca gisata kijejwe ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri (NCA) yaratanze ibihe ntarengwa bine mu 2001 bishobora gutuma ibikoreshwa: gutakaza ubutaka, gutakaza ububasha bwa gisirikare, isenyurwa ry'ubutunzi, canke ihungabanywa ry'inzego zirongoye igihugu.

Mu 2002, uwari umukuru w'igihugu ico gihe Pervez Musharraf yaratomoye neza ko "ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara bigenewe ahanini Ubuhindi" kandi ko bishobora gukoreshwa gusa mu gihe "ukubaho kwa Pakistani nk'igihugu" kwoba kugeramiwe.

Mu gitabo ciwe, Mike Pompeo yahoze ari umushikiranganji ajejwe imigenderanire wa Amerika yanditse ko yigeze kuvyurwa mw'ijoro kugira ngo avugane na "mugenziwe w'Ubuhindi" atavuze izina yari afise ubwoba ko Pakistani yariko itegura gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri mu mishamirano yo mu 2019 n'Ubuhindi.

Nko muri ico gihe nyene, ibinyamakuru vyo muri Pakistani vyasubiyemwo umutegetsi wo hejuru yagabisha bikomeye Ubuhindi: "Nibaza ko uzi ico ari co umurwi w'igihugu ujewe ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara n'ingene ukora. Navuze ko tuzobatera giturumbuka. Rindira rero ico gitero giturumbuka… Wahisemwo inzira y'intambara utazi ingaruka zayo ku mahoro n'umutekano w'akarere".

Mu ntambara ya Kargil mu 1999, uwari umushikiranganji wa Pakistani ajejwe imigenderanire Shamshad Ahmed yagabishije ko igihugu kidashobora "gutinya gukoresha ikirwanisho ico ari co cose" mu gukingira ubutaka bwaco. Inyuma y'imyaka mike, umutegetsi wa Amerika Bruce Riedel yahishuye ko igendereza ryerekanye ko Pakistani yariko irategura ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vyayo kugira ishobore kubikoresha mu ntambara.

Ariko hari amakenga ku mpande zompi kuri ibi vyavugwa.

Uwahoze aserukira Ubuhindi muri Pakistani, Ajay Bisaria, yanditse mu gitabo avugamwo ivyo yabonye (memoir) ko Pompeo yashikuje ku vyago vy'ikoreshwa ry'ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri be n'uruhara Amerika yagize mu guhosha imishamirano mu 2019.

Hanyuma kandi mu ntambara ya Kargil, Pakistani "yari izi ko igisirikare c'Ubuhindi kirwanira mu kirere kitashobora kwinjira ku butaka bwayo" – rero nta kintu na kimwe nyaco cari gutuma haba intambara ya nikleyeri, nk'uko abihweza ibintu n'ibindi ba Pakistani babishimangira.

Ejaz Haider, umuhinga mu vy'ukwivuna abansi wo muri Lahore, yabwiye BBC ati: "Ubutumwa bwa gisirikare buributsa isi yose ko intambara iyo ari yo yose ishobora kuvamwo akarambaraye- kandi ku Buhindi na Pakistani, ibintu ntivyoroshe kubera vyompi bitunze ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri. Ariko ivyo ntibisigura ko hari uruhande ruri mu myiteguro yo kubikoresha".

Ariko ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri bishobora gukwega akarambaraye ku mpanuka. "Ibi bishobora guterwa no kwihenda kw'umuntu, abagizi ba nabi binjira mu mamashini nyabwonko (hackers), abakora iterabwoba, ibibazo vy'amamashini nyawonko, amakuru atari yo atanzwe n'ibigendajuru, canke abategetsi mahindagu", nk'uko Alan Robock, umwigisha wa kaminuza ya Rutgers akaba n'umwanditsi mukuru w'icigwa cakozwe n'umugwi w'abahinga mu 2019 yabibwiye BBC.

Muri Ntwarante (3) 2022, Ubuhindi bwararashe igisasu ca misire gishobora kwikorera ibiturika vya nikleyeri cagenze ibirometero 124 hagati ku butaka bwa Pakistani imbere y'uko gikoroka, bikaba vyavuzwe ko cononye amatungo y'abasivire.

Pakistani ivuga ko Ubuhindi butihutiye kubimenyesha igisirikare cayo canke ngo bugire ico bushikirije ku mugaragaro mu kiringo c'imisi ibiri. Iyo ibi bikaba mu gihe c'icuka kibi, vyari guhava bivamwo imishamirano ikomeye, nk'uko abahinga babivuga.

Haciye amezi make, reta y'Ubuhindi yaciye ibogoza intwazangabo zo mu gisirikare kirwanira mu kirere kubera "kurasa igisasu ca misire mu buryo bw'impanuka".

Nubwo biri uko, ivyago vy'intambara ya nikleyeri hagati y'Ubuhindi na Pakistani biracari "ku rugero ruto", nk'uko bivugwa na Clary.

Ati: " Igihe cose ata ntambara ikomeye yo ku butaka iri ku mupaka, ivyago vyo gukoresha ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri biracari ku rugero ruto kandi ni ikintu gishobora gutorerwa umuti.

"Mu ntambara yo ku butaka, ibihugu bitunze ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara bishobora kwisanga ari ngombwa ko bibikoresha hakiri kare, iyo bibona ko umwansi ashobora kwigarurira ibirindiro vyavyo".

Sumit Ganguly, umuhinga ku kigo Hoover Institution kuri kaminuza ya Stanford, abona ko "bwaba Ubuhindi canke Pakistani, nta ruhande na rumwe rwipfuza kubona ko ari rwo rubaye urwa mbere mu gukora ikosa ryo gukoresha ikirwanisho ruhonyanganda c'ubumara inyuma y'akaga ka Hiroshima".

Ganguly yabwiye BBC ati: "Vyongeye, uruhande urwo ari rwo rwose rwohitamwo kwikora ku birwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara, urundi rwokwihora bikomeye ugasanga habaye ivyononekara ku rugero rudashobora kwihanganirwa".

Ariko aho nyene, Ubuhindi na Pakistani vyompi bigaragara ko biriko birisuganya mu bijanye n'ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri.

Nk'uko biri mu kinyamakuru The Nuclear Notebook candika amakuru y'ubushakashatsi ku birwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara yegeranywa n'ikigo Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information Project, Pakistani iriko irakora ku vyerekeye uburyo bushasha bwo kurungika ibisasu vya nikleyeri, ikaba ifise imashini zine zitunganya ubutare bwa plutonium kandi kaba iriko irongereza urugero rwa uranium, ibi bikazotuma gushika mu mpera z'ino myaka ya 2020 ishobora kuba igeze ku bisasu 200 vyikorera ibiturika vya nikleyeri.

Hanyuma kandi, kuva mu ntango za 2023, vyagereranywa ko Ubuhindi bwari bufise ibiro vyababa 680 vya plutonium ishobora gukoreshwa mu guhingura ibirwanisho – urugero rukwiye kugira ngo bushobore guhingura ibisasu hagati ya 130 na 210 vyikorera ibiturika vya nikleyeri, nk'uko bivugwa n'ikigo International Panel on Fissile Materials.

Nubwo hari ibibazo bigenda bigaruka be n'ibihe bidasanzwe, gushika ubu impande zompi zarashoboye kwigumya mu kwirinda kuja mu vyago vy'agahomerabunwa k'intambara ya nikleyeri.

Umer Farooq, umuhinga yihweza ibintu n'ibindi asanzwe aba i Islamabad, muri Pakistani, yanditse ati: "Ingingo zo gukinga ziracakora neza. Ico Abanyapakistani bakoze ni ukwishura ku bitero bisanzwe bakoresheje ibitero bisanzwe nyene ku ruhande rwabo".

Nubwo biri uko, kubona ibi bihugu bitunze ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri, ni ingorane idahera -ingorane itazokwigera ivaho burundu, n'aho hoza abategetsi bafise uburambe canke ubwitonzi bungana gute.

John Erath, umuyobozi mukuru w'ivy'imigambi mu kigo co kugenzura ibirwanisho ruhonyandanga vy'ubumara, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, yabwiye BBC ati: "Iyo ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri bishobora gukoreshwa, hama hari urugero kanaka rw'akaga rudashobora kwihanganirwa.

"Reta z'Ubuhindi na Pakistani zarashoboye guca muri ivyo bihe muri kahise zirigumya, ku buryo urugero rw'aka kaga ari ruto. Ariko ku birwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara, n'aho urugero rw'akaga rwoba ari ruto, ni runini cane".