Ntibigiye kworoha: Ubu nta kintu na kimwe kizibira Uburusiya na Amerika mu guhingura ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri

Ku wa 5 Ruhuhuma (2), 2026, hari isaha zitandatu z'ijoro ryo ku wa gatatu buca ari ku wa kane, ni ho amasezerano yanyuma hagati y'Uburusiya na Amerika yerekeye kugabanya ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara, canke ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri, yarangira.

Aya masezerano ni yo yagenzura ibi bihugu rutura bibiri bitunze ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara, akaba kandi ari amwe mu masezerano yari atumye isi iba mw'ituze gushika ubu.

Ubu, nta kintu na kimwe kibuza Uburusiya na Amerika kuja mw'ihiganwa ryo guhingura ibirwanisho.

Umunyamabanga mukuru w'ishirahamwe mpuzamakungu ONU António Guterres avuga ko irangira ryaro ari "igihe kitoroshe ku mutekano n'ituze kw'isi yose" aho yasavye Uburusiya na Amerika gusubira kwicara "bidatevye" kugira ngo bumvikane ku rundi rwego rwoyasubirira.

Aya masezerano azwi nka New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START, twogereranya n'Amasezerano Mashasha yo Kugabanya Ibirwanisho Ruhonyanganda) yateweko igikumu na Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika hamwe n'Uburusiya mu 2010, mu 2021 akaba yarongerewe ikindi kiringo c'imyaka itanu, ni ukuvuga gushika mu 2026.

Muri ano masezerano, buri ruhande ntirwategerezwa kurenza ibisasu vya nikleyeri 1550 biteguriwe gukoreshwa, akaba kandi yarashizeho uburyo bwo gutanga amakuru, kumenyesha no kugenzura ibibanza bibitswemwo ibi birwanisho, ivyatumye haba ukwizigiranira hagati y'ibi bihugu mu migenderanire ya nikleyeri.

Hampande y'isuzuma no guhanahana amakuru mu buryo buhoraho, ayo masezerano yari yashizeho Komisiyo Mpanuzwajambo y'Impande zompi yabonana kabiri mu mwaka.

Ibi vyose vyarafashije mu migenderanire hagati y'Uburusiya na Amerika. Ni vyo ko amasezerano ya START atamaze amazinda Uburusiya na Amerika – buri ruhande rwaba rufise ivyo rutishimiye, ariko vyompi vyarashitse ku mwumvikano watumye aya masezerano aterwako igikumu.

Igiteye impungenge ni uko arangiye mu gihe imigenderanire itifashe neza hagati y'ibi bihugu bibiri rutura bikebana.

Guterres agabisha ko ata masezerano ahari "turi mw'isi itagira ikintu na kimwe gishinga urugero ntarengwa rw'ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri" ku bihugu vyiharije "ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri gusumba ibindi vyose kw'isi".

Yasavye ibi bihugu bibiri kwicara bigashiraho urundi rwego rwo gucungera ibirwanisho rujanye n'ibihe isi igezemwo mu gihe akaga ko gushobora gukoresha ikirwanisho ca nikleyeri kari hejuru cane.

Guterres arashima ko Perezida Donald Trump wa Amerika na Perezida Vladimir Putin bamenyesheje neza ko batipfuza ko haha igwirirana ry'ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda vy'ubumara ritagenzuwe, ariko akabasaba "gushira mu ngiro amajambo".

Ku wa gatatu, hasigaye amasaha make ngo ano masezerano arangire, Papa Leo yateye akamo ibi bihugu gusubira gutera igikumu kuri ano masezerano, avuga ko ingene ibintu bimeze uno musi ari nkenerwa ko "hakorwa ibishoboka vyose kugira ngo ntihongere kuba ugusiganwa mu guhingura ibirwanisho".

Amasezerano ya mbere ya START – yateweko igikumu mu 1991 na Amerika hamwe n'icahoze ari Ubumwe bw'Abasoviyeti – yabuza buri ruhande gushira ku rubuga ibisasu vya nikereyeri birenga 6.000.

Yakurikiwe n'aya ya New START mu 2010 ku mugwa mukuru wa Repubulika ya Tcheque, Prague, hagati ya Amerika n'Uburusiya, igihugu casubiriye Ubumwe bw'Abasoviyeti bwasambutse mu 1991.

Nubwo mu myaka itatu iheze Uburusiya bwahagaritse vy'agateganyo ano masezerano kubera icuka ciyongereye biturutse ku ntambara bwatanguje muri Ukraine, ibi bihugu vyompi vyari bikigendera kuri ano masezerano.

Aya masezerano yabuza uguhingura ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri mu buryo butagenzuwe kandi vyategeka ibi bihugu bibiri bitunze ibi birwanisho vyinshi cane gusumba ibindi vyose gushiraho ingingo zo gukorera mu muco kugira ngo ntihagire uruhande rwiyumvira urundi ukutari ko.

Rero kubona aya masezerano arangira ata yandi ahari yo kuyasubiriza, ni ikintu giteye ubwoba. Its expiry follows a worrying pattern. Other long-standing arms control treaties have already fallen by the wayside.

Amiral Sir Tony Radakin yahoze arongoye igisirikare c'Ubwongereza, agabisha ko urwego be n'amasezerano vyafashije kugira ngo isi igire ituze "bigiye gusenyuka".

Ku mugoroba wo ku wa gatatu, ubushikiranganji bw'Uburusiya bujejwe imigenderanire bwasohoye itangazo buvuga ko "uko ibintu bimeze ubu, dufata ko ibihugu vyateye igikumu kuri New START bitakigendera ku nshingano za vyo".

Bwavuze ko buri ruhande rufise uburenganzira bwo kwihitiramwo inzira yarwo.

"Mu gukora uku, Uburusiya bufise umugambi wo gukora mu buryo bubereye kandi bwa gishingantahe", niko iri tangazo rivuga, rikongerako yuko Moscou "iguma yiteguriye gufata ingingo ruhasha z'ubuhinga bwa gisirikare kugira ngo irwanye ikindi kintu ico ari co cose coza kibangamira umutekano w'igihugu".

Perezida Donald Trump wa Amerika wewe yumvikana avuga nk'uko ataco bimubwiye. Mu kwegu guheze, yabwiye ikinyamakuru New York Times ati: "Ni yahera, azoba aheze…tuzoshiraho amasezerano meza".

Washington ibona ko amasezerano yandi ayo ari yo yose yerekeye kugenzura ibirwanisho ategerezwa kuba arimwo Ubushinwa, bumaze igihe buhingura ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri.

Ibi kandi vyasubiwemwo n'umushikiranganji w'Ubudagi ajejwe imigenderanire Johann Wadephul ku wa kane, aho yabwira abanyamakuru i Canberra muri Australia ko "Ubushinwa butegerezwa kujamwo".

Avuga ko nimba Ubushinwa bubandanya bushimangira ko "amakungu akwiye gukorera hamwe, butegerezwa kubigaragariza mu bikorwa, bukerekana ko bwiteguye koko kwinjira mu masezerano yo gugenzura ibirwanisho kandi bakizigira n'amakungu".

Hagati aho, kuva kera Uburusiya bwamye buvuga ko amasezerano ayo ari yo yose yo kugenzura ibirwanisho akwiye kujamwo n'Ubufaransa hamwe n'Ubwongereza – ibihugu vya Bulaya bitunze ibirwanisho vya nikleyeri.

Darya Dolzikova, umushakashatsi mukuru mu mugambi Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme w'ikigo RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) co mu Bwongereza, avuga ko irangira ry'aya masezerano ya New Start riteje "impungenge kuko hari ibituma impande zompi zitangura gukomeza ubushobozi bwazo bwa nikleyeri".

Muri kino gihe, America n'Uburusiya biriko biranagura ibisata vyavyo vya nikleyeri kandi vyongereza ubushobozi bwavyo. Ubu hari iri hinganwa rishasha ryo guhingura ibirwanisho.

Dolzikova avuga ko ku Burusiya "bisa n'uko hari impungenge ku bushobozi bwabwo bwo gushobora kuvogera ubuhinga bwa Amerika bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere". Izi mpungenge zagiye kwiyongera kubera integuro za Trump zo kwubaka ico yise "Golden Dome" (twogereranya n'Igisenge c'Inzahabu, mu nsiguro twoyita Igisenge Ntamenwa) mu ntumbero yo gukingira igihugu ciwe ibisasu rutura vyoraswa ku gihugu ciwe bivuye hanze.

Ariko Uburusiya na bwo buriko buhingura ibirwanisho bishasha bishobora kunesha ubuhinga bwo kwivuna ibitero vyo mu kirere. Muri ibi harimwo ikizwi nka Poseidon – igisasu gishasha co mu mazi ca nikleyeri cambukiranya imigabane, kandi gikoresha inguvu za nikleyeri, hamwe kandi na Burevestnik – igisasu ca misire kandi gikoresha inguvu za nikleyeri.

Amerika, Uburusiya n'Ubushinwa, vyose biriko bihingura ibisasu vya misire biraswa kure kandi binyaruka gusumba ijwi, bishobora kugira umuvuduko w'ibirometero 6437 kw'isaha (6.437km/h), kandi biragoye gukorora.

Dolzikova avuga ko ibi bihugu biriko vyongereza ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bizotuma bigorana cane gushika ku masezerano mashasha yo kugenzura ibirwanisho.

Yaba Amerika, bwaba Uburusiya, nta ruhande na rumwe ruboneka ko ruriko rwihuta kugira ngo habe amasezerano mashasha yo kugenzura ibirwanisho.

Iki cari mu vyategerezwa kwigwako igihe Perezida Putin yabonana na Perezida Trump i Alaska mu mwaka uheze, ariko nta cavuyemwo.

Amasezerano mashasha arashoboka – ariko kubona ayahahora, New Start, arangira, ni ikimenyetso ko igihe kitoroshe.