Talaabada Trump ee Venezuela miyey khatar ku tahay ganacsiga Shiinaha?

Saacado kooban ayey Donald Trump ku qaadatay inuu beddelo xiriirka uu Shiinuhu tobannaan sano dhisayeen.

Maalmo yar ka hor weerarkii habeenkii dhacay, Madaxweynaha Venezuela Nicolás Maduro waxa uu amaanayay dhiggiisa Shiinaha, Xi Jinping, isagoo ku tilmaamay "walaalkii ka weyn", isla markaana ku sifeeyay inuu yahay hoggaamiye caalami ah oo wada "farriin adag", xilli uu kulan la yeeshay mas'uuliyiin sare oo ka socday Beijing.

Shiinuhu waxa uu maalgelin ballaaran ku sameeyay Venezuela, oo ah dal hodan ku ah shidaalka kana mid ah saaxiibada ugu dhow ee uu Shiinuhu ku leeyahay Koonfur Ameerika.

Warbaahinta dowladda Shiinaha ayaa baahisay sawirro kulankaas ah: rag ku labisan dhar dhalaalaya, kana doodaya qaar ka mid ah ku dhowaad 600 heshiis oo ka dhexeeya labada dal.

Hase yeeshee, sawirka xigay ee Maduro waxa uu muujinayay muuqaal gebi ahaanba ka duwan: indhaha oo laga xiray, gacmahana ka xiran oo saaran markab dagaal oo Maraykan ah. Shiinuhu waxa uu ku biiray dalal badan oo caalamka ah oo cambaareeyay tallaabada lama filaanka ah ee Washington ka qaadday dal madax-bannaan, isagoo Maraykanka ku eedeeyay inuu isu arkayo "xaakinka dunida", isla markaana ku adkeystay in "madaxbannaanida iyo amniga dhammaan dalalka si buuxda loogu ilaaliyo sharciga caalamiga ah."

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Beijing waxay si taxaddar leh uga fakareysaa, ma aha oo keliya sidii ay u adkaysan lahayd mowqifkeeda Koonfur Ameerika, balse sidoo kale waxa ay ka fakareysaa sidii ay u maareynayso xiriirkan aan cagaha adag ku taageyn iyo in ay qorsheyso tallaabooyinka xiga, iyadoo tartanka awoodda uu ka dhaxeeyo Maraykanka iyo Shiinaha uu qaadi karo dhinacyo lama filaan ah.

Dad badan ayaa tan u arka fursad u soo baxday hoggaamiyeyaasha Shuuciga ah ee Shiinaha.

Hase yeeshee, waxaa jira sidoo kale khataro, hubanti-la'aan iyo caqabado, iyadoo Beijing ay isku dayayso inay fahanto tallaabooyinka xiga kaddib markii Trump uu jebiyay xeerar caalami ah oo la raacay tobannaan sano.

Beijing, oo ku shaqeysa qorsheynta fog-fog, ma aha mid taageerta fowdada iyo ficillada deg deg ah, waxa ayna u muuqaataa in marar badan soo noqnoqdeen inta uu xilka hayo Trump muddo xileedkiisa labaad.

Xi waxa uu filayaa inuu Maraykanka iyo dunidaba tusay sida ay ugu tiirsan yihiin wax-soo-saarka iyo tiknoolajiyadda Shiinaha. Hase yeeshee, hadda Beijing waxay wajahaysaa caqabad cusub.

Isku dayga Trump ee ah inuu helo marin uu ku gaaro shidaalka Venezuela ayaa sii xoojiyay shakiga Shiinaha ee ku aaddan ujeeddooyinka Maraykanka: ilaa heerkee ayuu Maraykanku u socon karaa si uu u xaddido saamaynta Shiinaha?

Wareysi uu siiyay NBC, Xoghayaha Arrimaha Dibadda ee Maraykanka, Marco Rubio, ayaa yiri: "Tani waa dhulka Galbeedka Waa halka aan ku noolnahay, mana oggolaan doonno in uu noqdo xarun hawlgal oo ay ka shaqeeyaan cadawga, tartamayaasha ama mucaaradka Maraykanka." Farriintan ayaa ahayd mid si dadban loogu dirayey Beijing.

Beijing waxaa laga yaabaa in aysan joojin hawlaheeda ka socda gobolka galbeedka ku yaalla, balse waxay dooran doontaa in ay sugaan oo ay eegaan waxa xiga ee dhaca.

Qaar ayaa is weydiinaya in Shiinuhu uu sugayo inuu arko haddii uu sidaas oo kale uga samayn karo Taiwan, oo ah jasiirad iskeed isu maamusha, balse Shiinuhu u arko gobol ka go'ay dhulkiisa oo uu wali isaga maamulo.

Xi Jinping waxa uu ballan qaaday in Taiwan maalin uun "dib loola midoobi doono" dhul-weynaha Shiinaha, mana uu meesha ka saarin suurtagalnimada in xoog loo adeegsado si arrintaas loo gaaro.

Beijing-se uma aragto arrintan isbarbardhig, maadaama ay Taiwan u aragto arrin gudaha ah, ee aan ahayn mid caalami ah.

Haddii Xi go'aansado inuu jasiiradda weeraro, ma noqon doonto sabab ah inuu ku dayanayo tallaabada Maraykanku uu hore u sameeyay. Shiinuhu wali ma hubo inuu hawlgal noocaas ah ku fulin karo kharash iyo khasaare la aqbali karo.

"Si kastaba ha ahaatee, ilaa maalintaas ay timaaddo, Shiinuhu waxa uu sii wadi doonaa istaraatiijiyaddiisa ah adeegsiga awood iyo hanjabaad si uu u cabsi geliyo shacabka Taiwan, ayadoo ujeeddaduna tahay in Taiwan lagu qasbo miiska wada-xaajoodka. Duqeymaha Maraykanku ka geystay Venezuela wax isbeddel ah kuma keenayaan halka uu rabo Shiinaha.

Taa beddelkeeda, arrintani waa caqabad uusan Shiinuhu u baahnayn, isla markaana uusan rabin, waxayna halis gelinaysaa qorshihiisa fog ee uu ku doonayo inuu ku kasbado ama ku qabsado taageerada Koonfurta Caalamka (Global South).

Xaaladda Venezuela ayaa Shiinaha ku noqotay caqabad aan la filayn soo ifbaxadeeda, taasoo saameyn ku yeelatay qorshihiisa muddada dheer ee ku aaddan ballaarinta saamayntiisa ee Koonfurta.

Xiriirka uu Shiinaha la lahaa Venezuela waxa uu ahaa mid sahlan, Shiinaha waxa uu u baahnaa Saliid, halka Venezuela ay lacag u baahneed. Intii u dhexeysay 2000 ilaa 2023, Beijing waxay bixisay in ka badan 100 bilyan oo doolar si loogu maalgeliyo mashaariic waddooyin tareenno, warshado koronto iyo kaabayaal kale. Beddelkeedana, Caracas waxay Shiinaha siisay shidaal, kaas oo laf-dhabar u ah dhaqaalihiisa.

Ku dhowaad 80 boqolkiiba shidaalka Venezuela ayaa sannadkii hore loo dhoofiyay Shiinaha, inkasta oo uu weli ka yahay kaliya 4 boqolkiiba guud ahaan shidaalka uu Shiinuhu soo dejiyo.

Sidaas darteed, halista dhaqaale ee Shiinaha kaga xiran Caracas waa mid sareysa, iyadoo shirkado ay ka mid yihiin CNPC iyo Sinopec ay wajahayaan khatar ah in hantidooda lala wareego ama la qabto, ha noqoto Maraykanka ama Venezuela.

Sidoo kale waxaa jira ku dhowaad 10 bilyan oo doolar oo deyn ah oo Venezuela ay ku leedahay deyn-bixiyeyaasha Shiinaha, balse Olander mar kale wuxuu ku boorinayaa taxaddar, maadaama aan si cad loo ogeyn in maalgashi kasta oo hadda ka jira dalkaasi uu halis ku jiro iyo in kale.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, xaaladdani waxay u noqon kartaa digniin ku socota maalgashadayaasha mustaqbalka. "Ganacsiyada Shiinaha waa in ay si buuxda u qiimeeyaan khataraha iyo heerka faragelinta Maraykanka ka hor inta aysan gelin mashaariic," ayuu yiri Cui Shoujun, oo ka tirsan Kulliyadda Xiriirka Caalamiga ah ee Jaamacadda Renmin, isaga oo la hadlayey sheegay warbaahinta dowladda Shiinaha.

Beijing ma doonayso inay burburiso heshiiskeeda ganacsi ee yar ee ay la leedahay Maraykanka, balse sidoo kale ma rabto inay lumiso saldhiggeeda Latin Ameerika. Tani waxay noqon doontaa caqabad weyn, gaar ahaan marka la wajahayo hoggaamiye aan caadi ahayn sida Trump.

Maalgashiga ballaaran ee Shiinaha ayaa walaac gelin kara dalal kale oo Latin Ameerika ah, ayuu Olander sheegay. "Gobolku waa il muhiim u ah Shiinaha marka la eego cunto, tamar iyo kheyraad dabiici ah, ganacsiga labada dhinacna hadda wuxuu gaarayaa ku dhowaad nus tirilyan oo doolar."

Maraykanka ayaa sidoo kale si cad u muujiyay inuu doonayo in dowladda Panama ay joojiso dhammaan xiriirka dekedaha iyo maalgashiga Shiinaha ee la xiriira Kanaalka Panama, arrintu waa mid si toos ah u qusaysa Shiinaha ayuu Olander.

Shiinuhu waxa uu muujiyay samir iyo go'aan adag oo ku aaddan ballaarinta saamayntiisa Koonfur Ameerika.

Waddamada soo oo ah dalal iskaashi sameeya, waxay muddo dheer ka cabsanayeen Reer Galbeedka, gaar ahaan Maraykanka xiiliyada Trump.

Shiinuhu badanaa si cad ayuu u qeexaa waxa uu filayo, oo ay ku jirto mabda'a "Hal Shiinaha" iyo aragtida ah in Taiwan ay qayb ka tahay Shiinaha.

Beijing waxa ay si weyn ugu guulaysatay in ay ku qanciso dalal badan oo Latin Ameerika ah in aysan siin aqoonsiga diblomaasiyadeed Taiwan, una wareegaan Shiinaha.

Dalal ay ka mid yihiin Costa Rica, Panama, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua iyo Honduras ayaa dhammaantood 20-kii sano ee la soo dhaafay taageeray wada-hadallo istaraatiiji ah oo dhanka dhaqaalaha ah oo ay la sameeyaan Shiinaha, kaas oo lagu qiyaasay 19 tirilyan.

Dhanka kale, Trump waxa uu muujiyay in xiriirka lala yeesho Washington uu noqon karo mid aan waxtar lahayn oo aan la hubin. Arrintaasi waxa ay ku ciyaari kartaa danaha Shiinaha, maadaama uu doonayo inuu Xi Jinping u muujiyo inuu yahay hoggaamiye adag.

"Tani waa arrin muhiim ah, sababtoo ah xaaladda Venezuela si fudud ayay ugu u noqon kartaa khalalaase," ayuu yiri Olander. "Sidoo kale ha illoobin casharkii Ciraaq, halkaas oo Maraykanku uu sheegay in keydka shidaalka dalkaasi lagu maalgelin doono dib-u-dhiska dhaqaalaha Ciraaq. Taasi ma dhicin, Shiinahana hadda waa iibsadaha ugu weyn ee shidaalka Ciraaq. Wax la mid ah taas ayaa si fudud uga dhici karta Venezuela."

Muddo dheer, xildhibaano Maraykan ah oo ka walaacsan Shiinaha ayaa ku boorinayay dowladda inay wax ka qabato saamaynta Beijing ee Latin Ameerika. Hadda tallaabo ayaa la qaaday, balse cid walba ma oga waxa xiga ee iman doona. Wax walba waa khatar la gelayo, Shiinuhuna caadi ahaan ma jecla khamaarka.