Me Putin ke son cimmawa a yakin Ukraine kuma yaushe zai gama shi?

Vladimir Putin

Asalin hoton, Getty Images

    • Marubuci, Daga Paul Kirby
    • Sanya sunan wanda ya rubuta labari, BBC News

Lokacin da Putin ya tashi zaune tsaye a Turai ta hanyar kaddamar da yaki kan wata kasar dimokradiyya mai mutum miliyan 44, hujjarsa ita ce, Ukraine na kawance da kasashen Yamma wanda hakan wata barazana ce ta dindindin ga zaman lafiyar Rasha.

Bayan kwashe makonni ana ruwan bama-bamai, dubbai sun rasa rayukansu kuma miliyoyi sun yi gudun hijira, tambayar a nan ita ce: me ake son cimma wa da wannan yakin kuma mecece mafita?

Me Putin ke bukata ne?

Manufarsa a farkon yakin yanzu ta sassauto saboda a tunaninsa da zai yi wa Ukraine farat daya. Ba kuma zai amince da cewa mamaya ce ko kuma yaki ne ba.

Amma dai abin da yake a zahiri shi ne, wannan wani lokaci ne mai wuya ga tarihin Rasha. "Goben Rasha da kuma matsayinta a idan duniya na cikin hadari," in ji shugaban harkokin wajen Ukraine Sergei Naryshkin.

Shugabannin Rasha na son karbe ikon Ukraine tare da hambarar da gwamnatin kasar, a wani mataki na kawo karshen kokarin kasar na shiga kungiyar tsaro ta Nato.

Ya shaida wa mutanen Rasha burinsa shi ne, "raba Ukraine da muggan makamai da kawar da akidar Nazi tsakanin al'ummarta", ya kuma ceto mutane daga abin da ya kira zalunci da kisan kare dangin da gwamnatin Ukraine ke yi. "Ba burinmu ba ne mamaye iyakar Ukraine. Ba mu da burin tilasata wa kowa," abin da yake ta nanatawa kenan.

Amma babu wata akidar Nazi da ta rage a kasar ko kuma wani kisan kiyashi da ake yi, kuma Rasha ta zalunci dubban mutane tare da kakaba wa birane masu yawa doka a wani mataki na mamaye kasar.

An ci gaba da ruwan bama-baman - amma rahotannin baya-bayan nan da suke bayyana daga tattaunawar zaman lafiya da ake yi sun nuna Rasha ba ta da fatan hambarar da gwamnatin Ukraine, burin dai shi ne a samu Ukraine da ba ta karkata ko ina ba.

Abin da ya faru cikin kwana 20 na yaƙin Ukraine
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Saboda me Putin yake son Ukraine ta zama 'yar ba ruwana

Tun lokacin da Ukraine ta samu 'yancin kai a 1991, bayan rugujewar Tarayyar Soviet, a hankali ta fi karkata zuwa yammaci - kawance tsakanin Tarayyar Turai da kuma kungiyar Nato.

Shugaban Rasha na yunkurin ganin hakan bai yi nasara ba, yana ganin rugujewar Tarayyar Soviet a matsyin "rushewar tarihin Rasha".

Yana ikirarin Rasha da Ukraine abu guda ne. "Ukraine ba ta sa wani abu na al'ada da tarihi a matsayin kasa," yana nuna Ukraine ba ta da wani tarihi.

A 2013 ya yabi shugaban Ukraine da ke goyon bayan Rasha Viktor Yanukovych, kan rashin sanya hannu kan wata yarjejeniya da Tarayyar Turai, abin da ya janyo wata zanga-zanga da ta hambarar da mulkin shugaban a watan Fabirairun 2014.

Rasha ta dauki matakin ramuwa ta hanyar kwace wani yankin Ukraine da ake kira Crimea a 2014, abin da ya janyo tawaye a gabashi, Rasha ta rika goyon bayan 'yan awaren da suka rike gwamnatin Ukraine sama da shekara takwas, abin da ya yi sanadin mutuwar mutane 14,000.

An samu tsagaitawar wuta, karkashin yarjejeniyar Minsk da aka cimma a 2015 wadda ba a taba aiki da ita ba.

Akwai wata mafita ga yakin da ake yi?

Mai bai wa shugaban Ukraine shawara Mykhailo Podolyak ya ce yana jin cewa za a iya tsagaita wuta nan da kwanaki masu zuwa ganin cewa shugabannin Rasha sun makale a inda suke yanzu.

Duka bangarori biyu sun yi maganar da ta dace game da zaman tattaunawa, kuma Mr Mykhailo Podolyak ya ce shugaban Rasha ya sassauta bukatunsa.

A farkon wannan yaki, Shugaban Rasha na son Ukraine ta amince da cewa yankin Crimea na karkashin ikonta, kuma ta amince da yancin 'yan awaren da ke gabashin kasar. Kuma ta sauya kundin tsarin mulkinta ta amince ba za ta shiga Nato ba kuma babu kawance tsakaninta da EU.

Har yanzu ba a samu mafita ba kan yankin Crimea da kuma 'yancin wadannan masu fafutukar 'yanci a gabashin Ukraine ba, amma wadannan abubuwa ba za su hana yarjejeniyar ba matukar bangarorin biyu sun amince da a tattauna a nan gaba.

Abin da ya faru cikin kwana 20 na yaƙin Ukraine
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Ya tabbatar Rasha ba za ta iya karbe iko daga gwamnatin Ukraine ba, ta kuma kafa tata gwamnatin, kamar yadda ta yi a Belarus. Shugaba Volodymyr Zelensky ya ce a farkon yakin an yi masa gargadin cewa "shi ne wanda ake hari na farko sannan iyalansa na biy.''

"Kamar Rasha na daidai da amincewa da akwai iyakokin da ba za su tabu ba," in ji Tatiana Stanovaya wata mai sharhi a wata cibiya RPolitik and the Carnegie Moscow.

Saboda Rasha na duba "matsayin Ukraine na 'yar baruwana da kwace muggan makamai" daga Ukraine da sojoji da sojin ruwa, da suke kan hanyar Australia ko Sweeden, wadanda su kansu mambobin Eu ne. Australia 'yar baruwana ce, amma Sweeden ba haka take ba, domin mamba ce a Nato.

Ba kowa ne zai amince da cewa Rasha na son tattaunawar ba ne da zuciya daya. Ministan harkokin wajen Faransa ya ce kamata ya yi Rasha ta fara sanar da tsagaita wuta, saboda "ba za a yi sulhu da mai bindiga a hannu ba".

Me Ukraine take so?

Abin da Ukraine ke bukata a fili yake, in ji mai bai wa shugaban kasa shawara: Tsagaita wuta kuma sojojin Rasha su fice daga kasarta, a kuma samar da hadin gwiwar wasu jami'an tsaro da za su rika bayar da tsaro ga Ukraine daga kawance kasashe, wanda hakan zai kare duk wani hari, "kuma su zama suna bayan Ukraine ne a fad.''

Ficewar sojin Rasha zuwa yankunan da suke gabanin fara yaki ba zai isar ba shi ne kawai bukatar Ukraine ba, babu tantama shi ne abin da kasahsen yamma ke so, wanda hakan ba zai amince da duk wata rigima da Rasha za ta iya tayarwa ba, in ji Farfesa Marc Weller masanin dokar kasa da kasa wanda a baya yake aiki da Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a matsayin kwararren mai shiga tsakani.

Ita ma Ukraine ta rage burinta tun bayan da Rasha ta fara mamayarta, inda Shugaba Zelensky ke cewa sun hakura bayan sun gano cewa sun hakura da shiga Nato.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visiting positions on the frontline with pro-Russian militants in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, 06 December 2021

Asalin hoton, EPA

Bayanan hoto, Kafin soma yakin, shugaban Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky yana yawaita zuwa filin daga da ke gabashin Ukraine

Shin Putin zai amince da yarjejeniya da Nato?

Inda wani abu shi ne, shugaban Rasha na kara ninka tsanar da ya yi wa kasashen yamma da kungiyar Nato mai mambobi 30. Watakila wannan ya zama dalilin da zai iya hakuri ya shirya da Ukraine, amma a wurinsa kasashen yamma na da manufa guda wadda ita ce rarraba kawunan mutanen Rasha da kuma tarwatsa kasar.

Gabanin wannan yaki, ya nemi Nato ta koma irin yadda take a baya, 1997 su daina fadada iyakarsu, ta janye dakarunta da kuma kayayyakin sojojinta daga kasar.

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A idanun Putin, kasashen yamma sun yi alkawari a 1990 kan cewa Nato ba za ta fadada "iyakokinta ba zuwa gabashi," amma duk da haka sai da ta yi.

Menene mataki na gaba ga Rasha?

Ana ta jifan shugaban Rasha da maganganu marassa dadi a ma'aunin mamaya da kasashen yamma ke amfani da shi. Ya yi ammanar mambobin Nato ba za su shiga cikin Ukraine ba ko da da taku guda, saboda ba za su iya hasashen irin tasirin da takunkumin tattalin arzikin da suka kakaba wa Rasha ba - kuma sun san a fusace yake.

Tarayyar Turai da Amurka da Burtaniya da kuma Kanada sun sanya takunkumai kan Rasha ta hanyoyi masu yawa:

  • An kame kadarorin babban bankin Rasha kuma manyan bankunan kasashen yamma sun dakatar da huldar biyan kudade da kasar.
  • Amurka ta haramta fitar da mai da gas din Rasha; ita kuma EU ta rage yadda take fitar da gas da kashi biyu cikin uku a shekara; kuma nan da karshen 2022 Burtaniya za ta daina amfani da man Rasha.
  • Jamus ma ta tattabar da daina amfani da bututun layin gas na 2, wanda kuma rasha da wasu kamfanonin Turai ne ke da hannun jari mai yawa ciki.
  • EU da UK da Canada sun ramata wa jiragen Rasha amfani da sararin samaniyarsu.
  • An sanya takunkumi kan shugaba Putin da ministan harkokin waje Sergei Lavrov da kuma wasu mutane masu yawa.

Babu wata tattaunawar zaman lafiya da za ta iya kawo karshen wadannan takunkumai da aka sanya wa Rasha, kuma Shugaba P{utin ya san hakan. maimakon haka sai ya koma kan 'yan Rasha da ke adawa da wannan yaki.

Kusan masu adawa da wannan zanga-zanga 15 ne aka aike da su gidajen yari kuma an rufe kusan duka kafafen yada labaran kasar masu zaman kansu.

Babu wani babban dan adawa da ya rage a cikin kasar dukkansu sun tsere daga Rasha, sai kuma wadanda suka magantu a maganar shugaban 'yan adawa Alexei Navalny, duk an kulle su.

"Mutanen na iya gane masu kishin kasarsu da kuma masu yi masu karya kan Rasha," in ji shugaba Putin.